Impact freshmen (yes, they're who you'd guess)
Posted: Thursday, November 01, 2007 1:30 PM
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Season previews
It's a funny thing about this year's freshman class. There may be some disagreement about the No. 1 recruit (some say USC's O.J. Mayo, others go with K-State's Michael Beasley), but there's very little disagreement about the top 5.
Whether it's Beasley or Mayo at No. 1 (take your pick between rivals.com and scout.com for that), the rest of the top 5 almost always includes Memphis point guard Derrick Rose, Indiana shooting guard Eric Gordon and UCLA center Kevin Love. Rivals has Duke's Kyle Singler ahead of Love, but that's about the only variant.
So what is it about these five players that everyone loves? After all, they won't be the only ones making a big impact.
Syracuse will be a Big East title contender with Jonny Flynn running their offense. Same goes for Jerryd Bayless with Arizona in the Pac-10. And while Kosta Koufas won't make Ohio State fans forget Greg Oden, he'll ensure the Buckeyes have a chance at returning to the Sweet 16. There's a compelling argument made for Kentucky's Patrick Patterson. (And if it's guys who can change programs for more than just one season, ESPN.com Doug Gottlieb has good insight here.)
Collegehoopsnet's preseason all-freshman team is a pretty good representation of the overall perception of the incoming freshmen. Those five are at the top, followed by 10 more guys who will start and make big contributions to NCAA Tournament teams.
The biggest difference -- which is important in the post-Durant&Oden era -- is the five at the top instantly make their teams national title contenders or make them even scarier than before. That's been a key component for nearly every national champion since Carmelo Anthony carried Syracuse to the crown in 2003 -- freshmen make the difference.
Of course, not every freshman is Carmelo or Oden. One can't expect to ride that incoming star to the title. But a freshman who can provide that boost to upperclassmen is invaluable.
And it's where those five at the top, Rose, Gordon, Mayo, Beasley and Love, stand out.
Rose may have the best job of those five. A 6-4 point guard who can score, but prefers to pass, he'll have a field day running Memphis' offense. If this is the year John Calipari's team finally gets over that Elite Eight roadblock, rose will be the catalyst. Wing Chris Douglas-Roberts may be the scoring punch, but he'll be relying on Rose to get him the ball. The catch here has always been that freshmen point guards can't handle the pressure in March. Ohio State's Mike Conley Jr. showed last year that great ones rise above that.
Love is in a similar situation. He gets to rebound, play defense and provide and inside scoring presence to a UCLA team aiming for its third straight Final Four. He doesn't have to carry the Bruins, but he'll be asked to shoulder a big load.
Gordon makes the Hoosiers legitimate Final Four contenders for the first time since losing to Maryland in the 2002 title game. He has a great low-post player in D.J. White and he won't have to run Indiana's offense. But scoring in March is never easy, which puts a little more pressure on Gordon than Rose or Love.
Then again, it's those two top recruits -- Mayo and Beasley -- that will have to shoulder the biggest burdens.
Beasley can do it all and will have to for K-State, which has another stellar freshman in swingman Bill Walker. But Bob Huggins is gone and the 'Cats' roster doesn't have the talent of Big 12 favorites Kansas and Texas, to say nothing of the other national title hopefuls. It would be a tall order to see Beasley lead K-State into the Final Four. But it wouldn't be outrageous.
Which brings us to Mayo. He has a potent forward in Taj Gibson, but USC lost three starters from last year's Sweet 16 team. That means Mayo will likely have to run the offense, score and handle the pressure situations. Yet if there's any freshman who can handle this kind of pressure, it's Mayo, who has been a winner everywhere he's played.
Still, if I were picking a freshman who would be cutting down the nets with his teammates in March, it would be Georgetown's Austin Freeman. But that's for this weekend's blog.
