Rating the contenders, pretenders
Enjoyed a week off to celebrate the holidays – and a sweet win for Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Not ready to anoint the Jayhawks as the latest football/basketball power, but it was a sweet present, nonetheless.
However, the week left me behind the curve on conference play beginning, so I’ll offer up some of the best looks at college basketball’s second season.
The Big 12 has been better than expected, writes our own expert, Ken Davis. Sure, we all knew Kansas would be a title contender (and after a thrashing of Boston College on Saturday, the Jayhawks earned some serious props for their play thus far. Then again, BC lost to Robert on Monday. Hold off on that title talk.), but Texas, Oklahoma and A&M are all capable of reaching the Elite Eight.
There’s a rundown of all six BCS conferences from FOX Sports’ Jeff Goodman, who points out the Cal Bears should be a darkhorse teams coming out of the Pac-10. If that’s true, it’ll be because of their offense, which rates among the Top 10 on kenpom.com’s adjusted efficiency. Between Ryan Anderson, DeVon Hardin and Patrick Christopher, Cal has the size and skill to hang with most teams. Defense, though…
Speaking of Pomeroy, he and John Gasaway cover a lot of ground in their latest back and forth. My favorite aspect? Tubby Smith. His Gophers have lost two straight, but opened plenty of eyes after a close loss to Michigan State on Saturday. They may squeek into the NCAA Tournament this season with the same personnel that was 9-22 last season.
Smith’s old school? After a start most ‘Cats fans will have nightmares about the rest of their lives, Billy Gillispie’s been trying to stay positive. It’ll be tough. Kentucky will be pushed to finish above .500, which, as Jerry Tipton points out, isn’t good for the SEC as a whole.
We’re down to six unbeaten teams (after UNC escaped by the skin of its teeth on Sunday night). Here’s a comprehensive rundown of the schools and what could derail their perfect starts. Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy says one of those, Vandy, gets its chance to silence all doubters on Jan. 17 at Tennessee. (That’s if the Commodores get by Kentucky…)
When it comes to mid-major analysis, always turn to Kyle Whelliston. His rundown of non-BCS schools who could be contenders is good reading, but his Boubacars on the midmajority.com are essential reading. Insight, wit and statistics all in one package.
Finally, here’s one for everybody thinking ahead to their brackets.
SI.com’s Luke Winn compared the teams in the Top 25 to adjusted efficiency ratings on kenpom.com, which he’s done for the last two seasons. (When we should’ve known teams like Alabama and Oklahoma State might not have been as good as their rankings.)
Important findings to consider:
<li>Texas, Vandy, Butler, Oregon, Ole Miss, ‘Nova and Rhode Island, all among the Top 25, don’t have the requisite defense to make a Final Four run.
<li>Kansas, Duke and Marquette are the elite offensive and defensive teams. (At least when he wrote it last week; West Virginia has since supplanted Marquette as one of three teams in the top 10 for each category.)
<li>West Virginia, Xavier, New Mexico, Drake and Gonzaga are five unranked teams who are efficient enough to make a deep run.
But there’s one issue I have with Winn’s elite teams. Those three may be ranked among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, but that doesn’t mean his tier 2 and tier 3 teams aren’t as dominant. More than a dozen teams have at least a 30-point margin between their AdjO and AdjD. Last year, UCLA's margin was 32.8 and they were as dominant as any team in the country.
Also, Kansas and Duke have the highest margin between their AdjO and AdjD, but the strength of schedule for both teams is around 100. Meanwhile, a team like Arizona is 9-4, has the 3rd toughest schedule in the country, and still ranks among the elite offensive teams in the country. Memphis, Xavier and Texas have played top 25 schedules, and are dynamite in adjusted efficiency.
It’s one thing to statistically judge teams, but not considering the quality of their opponents is foolish. (Which was the downfall of Oklahoma State and Clemson last year.)
Check out this week’s Top 25, and specifically, the top teams in it. Washington State, Georgetown and Indiana all have strengths of schedule in the 200s. Ole Miss is close at 186.
If you’re looking for some teams who may be overrated, they would be a good place to start. Watch them closely during conference play.
