Gophers, Sun Devils about to be exposed
Posted: Thursday, January 17, 2008 12:36 AM
Filed Under:
Big Ten, Pac-10
I hope Tubby Smith has enjoyed Minnesota’s surprising start. The next 10 days could be rough.
Smith’s squad must be considered one of the season’s good stories. The Gophers won just three conference games last season and finished 9-22 overall, their lowest win total in 39 seasons. But their 12-3 start (with an admittedly easy schedule, ranked 185th on kenpom.com) is noteworthy for that fact these were the same players from last year’s thud when they lost to Montana, Arkansas-Little Rock and beat Southeastern Louisiana by two points.
Does that put most of the blame on the fired Dan Monson and his replacement, Jim Molinari? Probably. After all, Minnesota seniors Dan Coleman, Lawrence McKenzie and Spencer Tollackson are all capable players.
Still, some, maybe most credit is due to Smith. After all, the guy can coach a little bit (even though I’m probably viewed as a Smith apologist). The Gophers play great defense (always a Smith trademark) with plenty of turnovers and blocked shots and are even decent offensively. And defense is always the great equalizer in college hoops and the mark of a motivated coach.
But, we’ll see just how good Smith’s crew really is starting Thursday night against No. 10 Indiana. The Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten’s top offensive teams (just behind Michigan State, which grinded its way to a 65-59 win against the Gophers on Jan. 5) and present inside (D.J. White) and outside (Eric Gordon) scoring threats.
Playing at home will certainly help Minnesota, as will having Tollackson muscle up on White inside. Not sure that’ll be enough though. The Gophers get to follow that with another home game, this one a rematch against Michigan State, then traveling to Ohio State on Feb. 26.
That’s three teams ranked among the top 27 in kenpom.com’s ratings. That’s a tall order for anybody.
The Gophers are far from the only team finally being tested, though.
No. 10 Texas A&M laid a huge egg on Wednesday at Texas Tech, turning the ball over 20 times and shooting just 34 percent from the field (.777 PPP) in a 68-53 loss. (The game was also known as Bob Knight’s 900th career victory. Nice milestone, but I’m more interested on what happened to A&M.)
The Aggies (15-2) entered the game 22nd in RPI and 10th in the Pomeroy ratings. They’re great offensively, decent on defense and don’t run everything through one player like last year. So WTF? Well, they’ve been boosting those stats against patsies.
A&M lost to the last good team it played, a 78-67 defeat at Arizona. Since then, it’s won eight games, five of which were against RPI teams 200+. The Big 12 schedule should tell use even more about the Aggies and if Wednesday was more than just one miserable outing.
Two A-10 NCAA hopefuls also had interesting, but slightly less disturbing setbacks Wednesday. Dayton lost 82-71 at UMass, the Flyers’ first loss since Nov. 17, while Temple hammered No. 20 Xavier, 78-59.
The defenses? UMass is one of the nation’s under-the-radar teams (28th in RPI, but 85th from Pomeroy, mostly because the defense stinks and the offense isn’t that good), which pushes the pace and will make teams struggle against its style. As for Temple … well … the Owls aren’t good. It reminds me of Xavier’s bewildering loss to ASU earlier this season. Sounds like Sean Miller will have do some more yelling.
And what about those Sun Devils, coming off a win against rival Arizona? Herb Sendek’s squad is 13-2 and hasn’t lost since Dec. 2.
That’s going to change really soon. Games at Cal, Stanford, UCLA and USC loom, all by Feb. 2. Throw in a home game against Washington State on Jan. 26 and it turns into a brutal six-game stretch. Such is life when you stack the early schedule with walkovers.
