Was Kentucky-Tennessee a win-win?
Posted: Wednesday, January 23, 2008 4:11 PM
Filed Under:
SEC, Rivalries
Tuesday was the Kentucky we expected to see this season. It always should’ve been a tough, defensively sound team with flashes of brilliance, despite a young roster led by a new coach.
But until a win against No. 3 Tennessee it was unclear if we’d see this Kentucky team this year. But UK seems to have figured it out. A double-overtime win against Vandy (the Commodores’ first loss) and close road losses at Miss State and Florida (combined records 29-8) gave the ‘Cats a big boost for when the SEC’s powerhouse team for the 2007-08 season came into Lexington (along with a Vols’ no-no during warm-ups).
So what to make of Kentucky now? And Tennessee, for that matter?
Let’s start with the Vols.
Tennessee remains a NCAA title contender thanks to its depth, aggressive defense and excellent offense, even if Chris Lofton still hasn’t quite found his shooting touch. (His 22-point, 7-for-14 outing vs. Kentucky could be the place to start, though.)
If nothing else, the Vols remain a key March team because they don’t turn the ball over and force tons of turnovers on defense. That usually translates into an opponent that digs itself a big hole – unless it owns the boards like UK did Tuesday.
And it’s that rebounding, or lack thereof, that remains their biggest detriment. When you start three players shorter than 6-3, it creates matchup problems and makes it easier for taller teams to hit the offensive glass, where Vols are among nation’s worst teams.
And the Wildcats? They still have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, thanks to a star freshmen and two tough seniors.
Patrick Patterson continued to state his case for national freshman of the year and SEC player of the year. In the Year of the Freshmen (Part II), he’s every bit as important to his team as Kevin Love is to UCLA or Eric Gordon is to Indiana. Make that more so.
Seniors Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford have gone from hated to essential, though it’ll be interesting to see how an ailing Crawford handles the rest of the season. If he misses any games or becomes ineffective, sophomore Derek Jasper could become awfully important awfully quick.
But enough rambling about that – what about UK in the Big Dance?
Kenpom.com has Kentucky projected to a 15-14 record, but all except one are essentially toss-ups. Winning the next four is likely, making the ‘Cats 12-9 with eight games remaining. If they hold court at Rupp, then grab road wins at LSU and South Carolina (asking a lot as it’s Dave Odom’s home finale), that’s an 18-11 mark entering the SEC Tournament. From there, anything’s possible. Their RPI could reach the 40s and they’d have their share of marquee wins.
Does the seeding committee overlook losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego and put UK in? Close call, but it’s certainly possible. Kentucky doesn’t have much room for error.
