Vandy's big win won't mean a March run
Posted: Wednesday, February 27, 2008 12:54 PM
Filed Under:
SEC, March Madness
Big wins like Vanderbilt’s force a re-thinking of one’s hoop perceptions.
So I thought more about the Commodores last night, slept on it, did more research this morning and here’s my verdict:
This isn’t the year Vandy breaks through to the Elite Eight, let alone the Final Four.
Vandy (24-4) has two elite players and is doesn’t lose at home. That’s generally not enough to win three NCAA Tournament games, let alone four.
Lunardi’s latest bracket has the Commodores as a 5 seed, which seems about right. They close out their season with three more wins and a couple in the SEC Tournament, they could snag a three seed. They’ve been once (1993) since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, and that didn’t result in an Elite Eight.
(That Elite Eight spot is important because Vandy is usually good for the Sweet 16. Since 88, it’s been to the tourney seven times, and have been to the Sweet 16 four of those times, including in 2004 and last year. But never an Elite Eight.)
This year isn’t that much different. Vandy has piled up wins, but until last night its biggest wins were against South Alabama and UMass. Blame a weak SEC, but when you’re 4-4 on the road and your two neutral court wins are against Bradley and Utah State, it doesn’t inspire confidence for a deep March run.
Need numbers? Vandy is fourth among SEC teams in efficiency margin. The Commodores are great from beyond the arc, but are a good, not great offensive team (37th in adjusted offensive efficiency). The defense is below average, if not downright bad. They don’t force many turnovers, don’t rebound or block many shots.
Essentially, this post from more than a month ago isn’t that far off.
BUT… they’re good in the clutch. Shan Foster and A.J. Ogilvy (when he’s on the court) are among the nation’s best 1-2 combinations behind Eric Gordon and D.J. White, and Michael Beasley and Bill Walker. And when Vandy’s in the tourney, they’re playing during that second week.
Yet, when you limit Foster or Ogilvy and Vandy is vulnerable. Take away both players and the result is four losses in a five-game stretch. And that doesn’t cut it in March.
