Lots on the line for Duke vs. North Carolina

Posted: Friday, March 07, 2008 7:42 PM
Filed Under: ACC, Rivalries, Duke-Carolina

It’s funny. The last Duke-North Carolina game resulted in the No. 2 Devils turning in an impressive 89-78 road win against the No. 3 Heels. A month later, UNC hasn’t lost since and is ranked No. 1. Duke lost back-to-back games and is now ranked sixth.

As a result, Saturday’s showdown includes some crucial details.

• The winner claims the ACC title outright and the top seed in the conference tourney. (The first time since ’91 the finale has that kind of weight.)
• A No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament also awaits the winner. Carolina hasn’t beaten a top 15 opponent all season and just three victories against the RPI top 25. But, at 28-2, it would be tough to deny the Heels a top seed with a victory. Duke (26-3) owns wins against four RPI top 25 teams (UNC, Wisconsin, Marquette and Miami) and could make a No. 1 argument even with a loss.

To be clear: Being a top seed doesn’t guarantee Big Dance success, but it’s a big key. Top seeds have won 13 of 23 national titles since the tournament expanded in 1985 and are 309-79; two seeds have won just four titles and just once since ’99, and are 224-88. In the last five years, compare their 65-18 and 50-19 records. That No. 1 seed is an excellent indicator of how a team will fare in the NCAA tourney.

(Vegas sidenote: It’s interesting that neither UNC or Duke are the odds-on favorite for the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is 9-2, with Carolina right behind at 5-1. Duke’s odds to win are 10-1, behind Kansas, Memphis and Tennessee.)

• Heels point guard Ty Lawson missed the first meeting and is still nursing a left ankle sprain. How he handles Duke’s pressuring man-to-man defense will be an indication of his NCAA Tournament health and how UNC’s offense will function.
• There’s the whole “misquoted” mess, too, but that’s mostly for us media types to chatter and fret about. Don’t hate us, it’s just the way we’re built.
• And, to put the game in perspective, there’s this. There will be a moment of silence before the game for Eve Marie Carson.
• If all that’s not enough, you could always watch ESPNU starting early Saturday morning. Five replays of previous Duke-UNC games would do it.

OK, that was a lot of stuff. Most importantly, who wins?

Kenpom.com predicts a 91-85 Duke win, with 69 percent certainty. Seth Davis likes UNC, 80-76. Jay Bilas is picking the Devils. Not sure if this is a good idea, but I’ll side with Davis.

The Devils are at home, but I thought they played their best game last month in Chapel Hill. Wayne Ellington will hit his perimeter shots and the Devils won’t hit theirs, or at least as proficiently as they did in their Feb. win.

Essentially, it comes down to this: The team that wins Saturday is more likely to make a run at the NCAA crown. Carolina's balance and Tyler Hansbrough's relentless style of play (SI cover jinx be dammed) makes it a better bet to win in March and on Saturday as well.

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