When do conference tourney losses help?
Nobody wants to lose a game. But can losing early on in your conference tournament actually be a good thing?
Louisville would like to think so. So would Final Four darkhorses Connecticut and Notre Dame. All three were upset in the Big East Tournament on Thursday, and, as at-large locks, now turn their attention to the NCAA Tournament next week. They can rest their players, work out some kinks and focus on possible first-round opponents.
More importantly, unless you’re a bubble team that must keep playing to earn that automatic bid, winning the conference tournament isn’t a clear indicator of Big Dance success, either. Just because you're riding a winning streak doesn't mean much.
Winning the regular-season crown (or sharing it) is far more important.
Here's how regular-season champs and conference champs compare in the NCAA Tournament, since 1998:
-
Regular-season champs who advanced to the Final Four: 25. Tournament champs who reached the Final Four (out of 40 total): 15.
-
Regular-season champs who reached regional finals (out of 80): 49. Tournament champs: 34.
-
Regular-season champs in Sweet 16 (out of 160): 79. Tournament champs: 50.
-
That includes 48 times when a team won the regular-season and tournament titles.
Those numbers were tweaked slightly last season when a host of conference sweeps where Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UNC, Kansas and Memphis won regular-season and tournament titles and reached the Elite Eight. UCLA and Oregon were the only Elite Eight teams who didn’t pull it off. Three of the four Final Four teams were regular-season champs. Same with the previous two seasons.
It makes sense, too. Teams that play more consistently over a longer period of time would be more likely to perform well in March. After all, a team can't just get hot when it wants to.
Essentially, regular-season success is a good indicator of teams that are tournament ready and could make a run.
Now, none of that prattling means UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame or any other team that’s been bounced from their conference tourney can’t win. It’s just going to make me think twice about advancing the Cards or Huskies very far in my bracket and take a second look at Wisconsin, Kansas or Texas.
Quick thought on Florida’s Billy Donovan, whose team won’t be going for the three-peat this season. Sounds like Donovan wishes he would’ve taken that Orlando Magic job.
“It’s hard for me to be excited going forward because I don’t see things getting fixed,” Donovan said after losing to Alabama in the SEC Tournament.
“It’s in front of our guys, what it takes to win. For whatever reason, I haven’t brought it out in them. They’re not committed to it. ... I’m not really excited about seeing this group of guys being sophomores.”
Ummm, what NBA jobs will be open this season?
