1 seeds are UCLA, Memphis, Carolina and ...
Tough break Tennessee. You were this close to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Entering Saturday, every projection (NBC, ESPN, SI, CBS, Fox, bracketography, you name it) had UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina and Tennessee as No. 1 seeds. And, since it’s a “what have you done for me lately” kind of world, the Vols’ loss to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament semifinals likely altered the seeding world. (Note: All records are vs. D-I schools; that's what the committee looks at.)
Is it fair that Tennessee (28-4, atop the RPI for weeks), with its 11 wins against RPI top 50, including victories against Memphis, Xavier, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Vandy, among others, should suffer as such? Probably not. But the Vols are probably headed to a No. 2 seed.
In all likelihood, it just means the NCAA Tournament seeding committee can settle on their top teams Saturday night. Here’s how (RPI numbers will be are updated through Sunday).
UCLA’s sweep of the Pac-10 regular-season and conference tournament titles cemented it as a 1 seed. Its win against Stanford was its 6th against the RPI top 25 and 11th against the RPI top 50. No matter how close the Bruins’ wins are, the overall record (30-3, RPI 4) is about as impressive as it gets.
Memphis pulled off the sweep for the third-straight season by pummeling Tulsa. The Tigers (33-1, RPI 3) didn’t run through the same caliber of league, but it’s impossible to overlook their non-conference wins against UConn, Georgetown, Oklahoma, Gonzaga and Arizona. Consider them the third No. 1 seed overall.
And, regardless of what happens in the ACC Tournament final, North Carolina will be a No. 1 seed. The Heels (31-2, RPI 2) are 9-1 against the RPI top 50, with victories against Duke, Kentucky, Kent State, Davidson and Miami. That’s not as impressive of a résumé as UCLA or Memphis, but UNC passes what Jay Bilas would call the “eye test.” It looks like one of the nation’s best teams. It’ll be seeded as such.
That’s three top seeds. Who gets the last spot?
Georgetown (27-5, RPI 8) might’ve had an argument with a Big East Tournament title to go with its regular-season crown, but losing to Pitt sunk the Hoyas. (To which they should say big deal. They made the Final Four as a 2 seed last year and could mimic that again.)
It won’t be Duke. The Devils (27-5, RPI 6) do have impressive non-conference wins against Wisconsin, Marquette and Davidson, but are 6-3 against the RPI top 50 and are 8-4 in their last 12 games. UCLA, UNC and Memphis are 11-1 in their last 12. That doesn’t stack up to the other 1s.
Count out Wisconsin, too. The Badgers (28-4, RPI 11) should pull off the Big Ten sweep, which is exactly what Ohio State did last season as a No. 1 seed. And they’re 11-1 in their last 12 games, which should boost the profile even more. But Wisconsin’s just 6-4 against the RPI top 50, which hurts. More damning is the perception around the Badgers. They don’t blow teams out, they just win. Would it help to beat Indiana instead of Illinois in the Big Ten title game? Probably. But the committee will have likely made up their mind about Wisconsin by then anyway.
That leaves, as you might expect, Kansas and Texas.
By all rights, it should be the Longhorns (27-5, RPI 5). They beat Kansas at home a month ago and also monster have wins against UCLA and Tennessee (which gives 'em an edge against the Vols), not to mention Oklahoma (thrice), Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s and Baylor. They’re 11-3 against the RPI top 50, are 11-1 in their last 12 games and could pull off the Big 12 sweep on Sunday by beating Kansas (again) in the tourney final.
Yet there’s the rub. Kansas (29-3, RPI 7) has been a team tagged for the Final Four all season. Bilas talked Saturday morning about how the Jayhawks, along with UCLA, Memphis and UNC, would be his top 4. They win big and they look like a Final Four team. But frankly, their résumé just isn’t as good as Texas’ is.
KU’s best win against the RPI is Oklahoma, which Texas has beaten three times. KU has won at USC and Texas A&M, but is that more impressive than at UCLA and a neutral win against Tennessee?
If Texas wins on Sunday, they’re a lock. If Kansas wins on Sunday in Kansas City, it makes those wins a wash, which still leaves Texas as the more impressive No. 1 team.
UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis and Texas are 1s. Tennessee, Kansas, Duke and Wisconsin are 2s. Let ‘em fight it out for the Final Four. And watch out for Pitt.
