Avoiding upsets, picking UCLA in my pool
Posted: Wednesday, March 19, 2008 5:51 PM
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March Madness
If there’s ever been a season to have four No. 1 seeds advance to the Final Four, this is it.
North Carolina, UCLA and Memphis were in nearly every preseason top 4 to start the season. NBCSports, ESPN, SI, Sporting News all had those three teams in their top four. Kudes to Jay Bilas, who tagged all the No. 1 seeds from the start. Louisville, Tennessee and Kansas traded off as the fourth team.
Point being, not much changed this season. Georgetown was expected to be this good. Same with Stanford. Duke and Texas were better than most thought, Michigan State, Marquette and Gonzaga a little worse. Oregon, a lot worse. But the teams at the top were expected to dominate, and did.
But … the odds of all four No. 1 seeds reaching San Antonio is miniscule. It’s just as likely that a 16 seed finally beats a top seed. Neither one has ever happened and the odds aren’t good that it will. (Not as long as picking the perfect bracket, though. Mathforum.org calculates the odds at picking a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket at 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1.)
That’s always in the back of my mind as I fill out a bracket. Every year picking upsets gets harder and harder. There were only three last year (not counting 8-9 and 7-10 games), but you know they’re coming. And every year, I talk myself into a silly upset that has no chance of happening. Last year, I talked myself into Arizona beating Florida (ugh) and Indiana over UCLA (almost).
This year, as weak as it may be, I’m going mostly chalk. All four No. 1 seeds are in my Elite Eight. I have three No. 3 seeds and a No. 2 two seed in there. That’s it. No longshots, not Cinderellas. No sense in getting cute when I’m a believer in talent wins tournament games.
That said, there are some upsets in my picks.
East Region
First-round winners: North Carolina, Indiana, Notre Dame, Wazzu, St. Joe’s, Louisville, Butler and Tennessee. Wazzu and Indiana both could lose, but I like the trendy pick of St. Joe’s. The Sooners are inconsistent.
Sweet 16 teams: UNC, Notre Dame, Louisville, Tennessee. Yes, boring picks. But the games won’t be. Love that Hoosiers-Heels game, same with Vols-Bulldogs.
But after all that chalk, I’m picking Louisville to beat UNC and win the region. It seems crazy since the Heels don’t have to leave the state, but that’s a brutal matchup for Tyler Hansbrough against the Cards’ big men, and Terrence Williams will be a matchup nightmare for UNC.
Midwest Region
First-round winners: Kansas, Kent State, Villanova, Vandy, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Davidson and Georgetown. That K-State-USC game is a tough pick; playing in Omaha will be the difference.
Sweet 16 teams: Kansas, ‘Nova, Wisconsin, Georgetown. If ‘Nova can beat Clemson (gonna be close), the ‘Cats can certainly beat Vandy. As for the bottom half of that region, both the Badgers and Hoyas are gonna be in brutal games.
Which makes me think Kansas has it takes to return to the Final Four. The Jayhawks are the nation’s most efficient team, play great defense and have balanced scoring. Most of all? They’re due and will get a favorable matchup with Wisconsin.
South Region
First-round winners: Memphis, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Pitt, Marquette, Stanford, Saint Mary’s, Texas. Really wanted to pick Kentucky. Really did. Marquette’s defense will make life miserable for the ‘Cats, though.
Sweet 16 teams: Memphis, Pitt, Stanford, Texas. Straight chalk for good teams.
Going with Texas to beat Memphis in the regional final. Love D.J. Augustin’s game –which will be huge when it comes to playing against Derrick Rose.
West Region
First-round winners: UCLA, Texas A&M, Drake, UConn, Baylor, Xavier, Arizona and Duke. Georgia could give Xavier a scare, but the Bulldogs of old will surface.
Sweet 16 teams: UCLA, UConn, Xavier, Duke. Really wanted to have Duke lose. Not a big believer in the Devils, who seem ripe for an early upset. But then again, is Arizona the team to pull that off?
UCLA – after slugging it out with UConn – will beat Xavier for the regional title. The Bruins are back to the Wooden days when they always won the West region.
Final Four
Love the Kansas-Louisville game. Both are balanced, excel on defense, have NBA-caliber swingmen and sturdy inside play. The difference will be the Jayhawks’ superior defense from their guards, Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson.
UCLA wins its rematch with Texas. Having a fully healthy Darren Collison makes all the difference.
But it’ll be Kevin Love who makes the difference in the title game. Love’s footwork and inside play torments opposing big men, which spells trouble for Sasha Kaun and Darrnell Jackson. The Jayhawks struggled against the Bruins’ perimeter defense in last season’s Elite Eight loss, but I don’t think that’ll be as big of a problem as Love and preventing and drives from Russell Westbrook.
Bottom line: UCLA wins its 12th title, 71-68.
