Sweet 16 predictions: Vegas vs. the computer
Posted: Thursday, March 27, 2008 8:55 AM
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March Madness
March Madness teaches us there is no sure thing in the NCAA Tournament. It’s true for the first two rounds, the Final Four and the weekend in-between. Upsets are just part of the game, which always spells trouble for the favorites.
But that doesn’t mean we’re going to see eight blowouts on Thursday and Friday. Says who? Ken Pomeroy and Vegas.
Kenpom.com (using his log5 method) predicts Kansas and UCLA as easy winners. Oddsmakers agree. And the two are fairly close on the rest of the games except one – North Carolina vs. Washington State. But I’ll save that one for last.
First, the shoe-ins.
No. 1 UCLA is seen as the likeliest winner this week; bad news for No. 12 Western Kentucky, which upset Drake and held off No. 13 San Diego for a spot in the Sweet 16. The Bruins are favored by 12 points, while kenpom has them at 14, winning 75-61. That’s also three points higher than the over/under. Either way, UCLA isn’t expected to be tested like against Texas A&M.
Kansas also plays a 12 seed, Villanova. Kenpom predicts an 81-64 win. Oddsmakers are right him here, giving the Jayhawks 11.5 points, with an over/under of 143. If either game is close at the end, it’ll be a big surprise.
There are two games both Pomeroy and Vegas agree will be close, but not one-possession finishes.
Oddsmakers don’t like Wisconsin against Davidson quite as much as Pomeroy. The Badgers are only 4.5 point favorites to end the Wildcats’ Cinderella run, but they’re slated as 67-58 winners by kenpom. The over/under of 125 is the same from both predictors, so good luck figuring out the difference on that one.
If there’s a No. 1 seed people have shied away from, Memphis. The Tigers are 35-1, but are just 4.5 point favorites against Michigan State. That speaks to the Spartans’ talent and the NCAA Tournament success of Tom Izzo (only Coach K and Rick Pitino have better winning percentages in the tourney). Kenpom predicts a 70-65 Tigers win (that’s on the under side).
After that, may as well flip a coin on the rest.
Three-seed Louisville is favored by 3 points over Tennessee. Kenpom thinks it’s two (73-71), also on the under side of 144 total points. The Vols (31-4) have the better record and a more athletic roster, but their close call against Butler and star shooting guard Chris Lofton wearing a walking boot may have turned everyone on this. (Louisville’s also pretty good.)
Two-seed Texas gets just two points against three-seed Stanford. The Cardinals’ twin towers, the 7-foot Lopez twins, should make things interesting for one of the ‘Horns’ strengths, their offensive rebounding. Pomeroy has Texas winning 67-66. This could be Friday’s most exciting game.
Or it could be West Virginia vs. Xavier. The third-seeded Musketeers are picked to win 67-66 by Pomeroy, which is the same as the oddsmakers, who expect a slightly higher-scoring game.
Which brings us to a game most expect to be a rout – except kenpom.
No. 1 North Carolina (34-2) is favored by eight points against Washington State. The Heels get to play in Charlotte, N.C., just down the road from their campus in Chapel Hill. They scored more than 100 points in each of their first two games and basically looked bound for the Final Four. Yet Pomeroy has it slated as a 71-69 win for UNC. His numbers indicate a slightly slower game – which favors the Cougars, who have one of the nation’s best defenses and an underrated offense, which outgunned Notre Dame in the second round.
Who’s right on that one? Since both think Carolina will win, it doesn’t really matter. But if it makes life tougher for Roy’s boys, it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the tournament shakes out.
