Picking Final Four winners? Flip a coin
Flip a coin.
Deciding Saturday’s Final Four winners is that simple. Grab a coin – nothing fancy – and call it in the air. Sure, you could always go with the Vegas line, but doesn’t a coin flip work just as well?
This historic pair of games features four No. 1 seeds are vying for the NCAA Tournament title. They’re evenly matched, feature plenty of balance, depth, future NBA stars and the game’s best coaches. If you think you’ve figured out the winners, guess again. You’re just trying to get lucky.
Seriously. It’s a Final Four with little agreement on the champion.
FOX Sports used WhatIfSports’ computers to tab Kansas over Memphis. A similar type prediction method from Sporting News has Carolina and UCLA winning. Apparently one site uses Macs, the other PCs.
My favorite predictor, Ken Pomeroy thinks it’ll be the Jayhawks and Bruins winning. Hmmm. Nothing much to go on yet.
So forget the machines. Let’s try it with some human error.
First, some blog thoughts. Deadspin likes Kansas (in a hunch) and Memphis to win. Same goes for the Big Lead. Consider them the non-insider’s view.
Five ESPN experts have three different winners (Hubert Davis decided to wuss out). Rivals.com’s Andrew Skwara says the Heels have the matchup advantage. Same goes for the Tigers. The fine folks at Sports XChange agree with Rivals, giving slight edges to UNC and Memphis.
One of the few places that did have writers in agreement was SI.com. Only Luke Winn thinks North Carolina will win it all. Everyone else is tabbing UCLA. (Three out of the four think it’ll be UCLA beating UNC.)
But the common theme among college hoops writers and analysts is that North Carolina should win. There’s a fine split between UCLA and Memphis, though the tide seems to be swinging the Tigers’ way.
Here at NBCSports.com it’s the same. One of our writers, Ray Glier, favors the Heels and Tigers, but I’m torn. (And about to flip a coin, apparently.)
Before the tourney started, I picked UCLA to beat Kansas in the title game. I’m trying not to waver now, but it’s tough.
No team looked better than Memphis last week when it destroyed Texas and Michigan State. The Tigers got monster efforts from Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, good bench play from Shawn Taggert and they hit their free throws, a significant note for a team that was third to last as a team this season.
Carolina merely romped through the first two games and made Washington State look foolish. Only a 10-minute second-half lapse against Louisville kept the Heels from earning all the plaudits this week.
Yet…what happens now? UNC doesn’t get to play in the state of Carolina anymore. The Tigers could start missing free throws or lose some of that “us against the world” motivation. Then again, UCLA’s had trouble scoring the last month and Kansas is lucky to be here.
So, here goes. I’m making the favorites (Tigers, Heels) heads.
(Coin flipping.)
Memphis beats UCLA.
(Coin flipping.)
Kansas beats Carolina.
Hm. Two out of three?
