Kansas' rebuilding task is a familiar one
Posted: Friday, October 17, 2008 12:59 PM
Filed Under:
2008-09 season previews
Good news for nervous Kansas fans this season: Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the defending champion has missed the Big Dance just three times.
Bad news for Kansas fans: One of those times was last season.
The Jayhawks must replace about 80 percent of their scoring from their championship roster, including all five starters. The pressure to win remains the same, but it’ll fall on the shoulders of junior guard Sherron Collins, sophomore center Cole Aldrich and seven newcomers to this year’s squad.
It’s a tall order, to be sure, but not an unfamiliar one to other defending champs.
Louisville’s 1986-87 team lost three starters and missed the NCAAs. UCLA’s 1995-96 squad lost two starters, but went 23-8 and won the Pac-10 title. Kentucky was so loaded in 1996-97, it lost three starters, but reached the NCAA title game, finishing 35-5.
But for Kansas comparisons, there are three teams that faced similar situations to this year’s Jayhawks squad: Maryland (’02-’03), North Carolina (’05-’06) and Florida (’07-’08). All three of those teams lost at least 70 percent of their scoring and rebounding from their title teams, but only Florida missed the NCAA tournament the following season.
How did those teams do it?
The Terps lost national player of the year Juan Dixon and its entire frontline of Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox and Byron Mouton from its 32-4 title team. They retained two important pieces in point guard Steve Blake and swingman Drew Nicholas.
The next season, Maryland finished 21-10 overall (11-5 in ACC play), nabbed a No. 6 seed in the NCAAs where it lost to Michigan State in the Sweet 16.
Nicholas emerged as a significant scoring threat, averaging 17.8 ppg. (His 1.33 PPS was slightly lower than Dixon’s 1.37 the year before.)
Blake upped his scoring to 11.6 ppg, did it just as effectively as Nicholas (1.31 PPS) and his assists barely dipped (7.1).
An important aspect was freshman Nik Caner-Medley. He took some lumps, but his 5.9 ppg – at 1.33 PPS – gave the Terps added punch when needed.
Also, forwards Ryan Randle (12.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.17 PPS) and Tahj Holden (8.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.31 PPS) did just enough to make up for the loss of Baxter and Wilcox up front. Neither was as explosive, but were capable.
Maryland also used a deep bench extensively. Jamar Smith, Calvin McCall, John Gilchrist and Travis Garrison also played more than 12 minutes a game.
Bottom line: Maryland used Nicholas as a go-to guy, had a great point guard in Blake and wasn’t afraid to go to the bench.
North Carolina in 2005-06 had it much worse.
The Heels lost their top seven scorers, including four NBA lottery picks. They accounted for 86 percent of UNC’s scoring and 80 percent of the rebounds.
But UNC finished the season 23-8 (12-4) in ACC and nabbed a No. 3 seed in the Big Dance, where it lost to George Mason in the second round.
Tyler Hansbrough, then a freshman, carried much of the load. He averaged 18.9 ppg and was incredibly efficient, going for 1.68 PPS (still his highest PPS for a season) and grabbing every rebound in sight.
Title-team holdovers Reyshawn Terry (14.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and David Noel (12.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg) both increased their scoring and did it efficiently, while point guards Wes Miller and freshman Bobby Frasor ensured Carolina never slowed down. Also important, freshmen Danny Green (7.5 ppg) and Marcus Ginyard (6.3 ppg).
After all, how many teams could lose their top seven scorers and still feature the nation’s 10th most efficient offense?
Bottom line: Don’t shy away from relying on your top players, no matter how old they are, but having an experienced upper classman is key.
The transition isn’t always smooth, though. Especially if you falter down the stretch.
After back-to-back titles, Florida lost its top six players for the 2007-08 season (about 85 percent of their scoring and 80 percent of their rebounds), and started 15-2, but ultimately missed the NCAAs. The Gators ended 24-12 (8-8 in SEC).
The Gators’ offense wasn’t the issue, either. Behind forward Marreese Speights (14.5 ppg, 1.51 PPS) and guard Walter Hodge (10.4 ppg, 1.26 PPS), they were among the nation’s most efficient scoring teams last season.
Freshman Nick Calathes was their best all-around player, leading the team in scoring (15.3) and assists (6.1), but could be sloppy with the ball.
Florida’s other young players were solid (sophomore Dan Werner went for 9.1 ppg and 6.4 rpg, while freshmen Jai Lucas and Chandler Parson combined for 16 ppg), but something was missing late in the season when Florida closed the regular-season with just 3 wins in its last 10 games, then lost in the SEC tournament opener.
Bottom line: Those young guys have to learn to play defense. The Gators were 77th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 246th in turnover percentage. (Frankly, an offense like Florida's should've been able to overcome a mediocre defense.)
That leaves Kansas to put the ball in Collins’ hands (coach Bill Self wants him to shoot about 18 times a game), use its depth (that means all 9 guys) and ensure its newcomers can handle play defense. With only two players 6-9 or taller, that could be an issue in the post.
Collins isn't an efficient scorer (1.25 PPS last season, which, at 18 attempts per outing in '08-'09, translates into 22.5 ppg this season), with an offense rating hovering around 1.07 last year. That was the worst among Kansas' nine players of note, except Aldrich. That will have to change.
Aldrich, who rebounded more efficiently than any other Kansas play last season, but didn't have enough rebounds to have a significant statistical impact, could be a double-double man. He'll see a lot of double teams, though, which means his passing out of the post to Kansas' perimeter players will be key.
And there's the rub.
Among Kansas' seven newcomers, only Travis Releford is a real three-point threat. Self's offense doesn't require a lot of long-distance shooting, but as anyone who saw Mario Chalmers' shot in the title game knows, hitting the three is key. JUCO transfer Mario Little could hit a few, but that's about it.
Right now, Kansas seems more like Maryland 2003 than UNC 2006 or Florida 2008. Collins can be the Nicholas-type scoring threat, especially if transfer Tyrone Appleton and freshman Tyshawn Taylor can handle point-guard duties. Beyond that, reliable bench production from the five freshmen and two JUCO transfers seems manageable.
With games against non-conference Washington, Arizona, Tennessee and Michigan State, the Jayhawks will see plenty of talented teams before Big 12 play begins. If Kansas isn’t ready for the conference grid by then, it could be on the bubble in March.
