Cal already contending under Montgomery
Posted: Wednesday, January 07, 2009 4:30 PM
Filed Under:
Pac-10
It’s amazing what a good coach can do. Just look at the Pac-10.
UCLA (12-2) continues to thrive under Ben Howland. Herb Sendek’s turned Arizona State (12-2) into a Final Four contender. Heck, Craig Robinson’s even made Oregon State (6-6) into a decent team – still not great – and earned plaudits from his brother-in-law.
But Mike Montgomery at Cal has turned the most heads.
Jeff Chiu/AP file |
Cal's Jerome Randle
|
The Bears are 13-2, feature one of the nation’s best offenses and are poised to throw a big wrench into the Pac-10 race. What else would one expect from Monty? He won four regular-season titles and nabbed 12 NCAA tourney appearances in 18 seasons at Stanford.
(Kudes should go to Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy on this one. He’s said for years that Montgomery was the best coach available and walked into a good situation at Cal.)
Still, some are waiting for the bottom to drop out. After all, Cal was 17-16 last season and lost its best player, Ryan Anderson, to the NBA. Just how good can the Bears really be?
That largely depends on their underrated point guard, Jerome Randle, how long they can maintain their stellar shooting and just how they fare away from home.
First, Randle.
Montgomery’s been elated by Randle’s play, and rightly so. He’s a vastly improved player from last season in every aspect, notably in terms of minutes played and percentage of possessions used. Seems Monty wants the ball in Randle’s hands.
After his 26-point, 10-assist performance during an 81-71 win against Arizona State on Jan. 4, Sendek said Randle was among the nation’s best point guards, likening his play to UNC’s Ty Lawson. That’s pretty high praise, and a little overblown. But not by much.
Randle’s an incredible offensive player (131.7 ORtg, 66.0 eFG% and hits nearly 56 percent of his 3-point attempts), but his ARate lags behind Lawson’s (30.8 to 36.5) and his TORate is far higher (18.0 to 12.4). Still, Randle’s played more than 80 percent of Cal’s minutes this season, which would account for some of the TORate and makes his offensive performance even more impressive.
If the Bears are going to reach the Big Dance, Randle’s going to be the driving force. He’ll need help from back-court mate Patrick Christopher, but Randle’s the guy.
The other factor behind Cal’s start is their team shooting.
Behind Randle and Theo Robertson, the Bears’ eFG% is 55.8, 14th among D-I teams (and third in the Pac-10). That stems from leading the country in 3-point percentage (50.5), though Cal doesn’t hoist a ton of 3s (less than 25 percent of their FG attempts).
Part of that’s from playing 11 of their first 15 games at home, where the Bears have yet to record an eFG% less than 50 percent. That kind of shooting won’t last throughout the season – especially as they face tougher defensive teams. UCLA, USC and this week’s opponents, Washington and Washington State, are among the nation’s top 30 defensive teams.
That leads into the third question mark around Cal: its schedule.
Nine of the Bears’ final 16 games are on the road. Trips to L.A., Seattle and Tempe may be a little painful. After all, they already suffered a 27-point loss at Missouri this season. Will an outing in Pauley Pavilion be any better?
The trick will be to not let the losses steamroll, which is Montgomery’s job. He’ll undoubtedly turn Cal into a Pac-10 power soon enough, but if he can guide Cal to 23 or 24 wins, it may be tough to top his initial season in Berkeley.
