Duke-Carolina, and the March implications

Posted: Tuesday, February 10, 2009 4:46 PM
Filed Under: Duke-Carolina

The pregame hype for Duke-North Carolina is inescapable.

If you’ve watched a college hoops game on ESPN in the last week, you know that sport’s greatest rivalry has its first game this season on Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET. OK, maybe the showdown itself doesn’t always live up to that hype, but it’s still No. 3 vs. No. 6, Hard to overlook a game like that.

When North Carolina (21-2) travels the 9 miles to Cameron Indoor Stadium to play longtime rival Duke (20-3), it’s a matchup of two of the game’s premier programs who also happen to be among the six or so serious contenders for the national title. It’s good enough to prompt N.C. state Senator Eddie Goodall to put up his seat for sale on eBay. (Hold on, he’s not going all Blagojevich on us…)

There’s usually plenty of news (this year, it revolves around Greg Paulus starting over Nolan Smith), features (players sharing their fondest memories as preps) and picks to win (Seth Davis likes UNC).

But the bigger question is if Wednesday’s game gives us any indication about which team will fare better in March.  

The short answer? No.

The Durham Herald-Sun notes that the last four times either school won an NCAA title, the team that lost the first game went on to win the Big Dance. That covers ’92, ’93, ’01 and ’05 – and in each case, the team that won the second game fared better in the NCAAs.

In fact, since 1989, the team that won the second game advanced further in the NCAA tournament 13 times. It’s best to be better later.

(An amazing aspect of these results? Either Duke or Carolina was in the Final Four 15 times since ’89.)

Does that mean the team that wins first peaked too early? Did the loser simply solve its issues? Tough to say.

"Historically, this game has helped both programs, win or lose, because you've been tested," Mike Krzyzewski told the Herald-Sun. "I think that's the most important thing. Over the years, Duke and Carolina have made each other better -- there's no question about it. … It's a good game to be in, a heck of a game to be in. Not many programs in the United States get a chance to play this level of game; we get to play it twice."

In the last 10 meetings, Duke usually wins the first game. The Devils have won six of the last seven initial matchups, and eight of the last 10. Carolina’s been better the second time around, winning five of the last 6 second meetings. (Duke swept the regular-season series three times between 1999 and 2002.)

Are we going to see more of the same this time around?

Our hoops expert, Ken Davis, says no. As good as Duke has been this season, he’s picking Carolina on Wednesday, which will eventually propel the Heels to the regular-season crown. But March? Well, that’s a different story.

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