Sooner stumble would end hopes for No. 1 seed
Posted: Wednesday, March 04, 2009 12:32 AM
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March Madness, Big 12
Time to find out how good the Sooners really are.
The No. 4 Sooners travel to Columbia – where they haven’t won since 2003 – for a huge showdown against No. 15 Missouri. If they win, they remain in the running for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and mathematically still in the hunt for the Big 12 title.
If they lose … well, that’s three losses in the last four games and the regular-season finale against surging Oklahoma State looming three days later.
That’s some pressure. And it’s exactly when Oklahoma (26-3, 12-2) need its star to shine.
Sure, Blake Griffin’s concussion was only about 10 days ago, but he recovered nicely during Saturday’s win against Texas Tech. It was enough to for star-struck Pat Knight to dub Griffin ‘The Terminator,’ which makes sense, given how hard Griffin works. Guy leads the nation in rebounding and is the nation’s most efficient offensive player, according to BBstate.com.
If there’s ever a time to live up to that NBA lottery pick talk, Wednesday’s the day. (Oklahoma coach Jeff Capel is coy about Griffin starting, but there’s little doubt he’ll play a prominent role.)
The Tigers (24-5, 11-3) plan on double-teaming Griffin. A lot. Single coverage doesn’t work so well. Texas Tech tried it and Griffin posted a 40-20 night. Heck, Mizzou coach Mike Anderson may even “do something crazy.”
The Tigers would be smart to stick with what’s worked so far – a pressuring, frenzied defense that disrupts opposing guards. If Griffin doesn’t touch the ball, he can’t hurt you. (Much. He’ll still grab a rebound or 12.)
Missouri features one of the nation’s most efficient defenses, stemming from its turnover percentage (26.1, 7th on kenpom.com and better than UCLA, Duke or Clemson) and steal percentage (14.4, 3rd). If you remember Nolan Richardson’s “40 Minutes of Hell,” this is Anderson’s version. The Tigers are quick, come at you in waves and never stop. Oklahoma guards Austin Johnson, Willie Warren and Tony Crocker must be on their game.
The Sooners should be wary. They’re favored by four points, but Missouri’s dead even with Oklahoma in efficiency margin during Big 12 play and hasn’t lost at home this season.
Even if the NCAA tournament seeding committee does discount the Sooners’ two losses because of Griffin’s injury, this is a must-win game because they have only two wins against the RPI top 25. If Oklahoma stumbles, Louisville or Michigan State could grab the final No. 1 seed (to go with UConn, Pitt and UNC).
So how good are the Sooners? Better get ready for a two seed.
