Why everyone wants to be a No. 1 seed
Posted: Friday, March 13, 2009 10:46 AM
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March Madness
Thursday wasn’t kind to would-be No. 1 seeds. Pitt lost to West Virginia. Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma. And Syracuse outlasted UConn – in near-record fashion six overtimes.
The upsets created a flurry of discussion about each team’s likelihood about grabbing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and, if the Panthers, Sooners and Huskies were no longer worthy of a top spot, which teams should take their place.
It’s all speculation and chatter, of course. There are still three days of conference tournament games to be played, which will affect the No. 1 seeds and the NCAA tournament overall. But it only focuses on the elite teams, which is like only talking about the Yankees and Red Sox as the baseball playoff approach.
The more important speculation deals with bubble teams. There are 15-20 teams trying to cement at-large berths, which affects Big Dance far more than what happens to the top teams.
Still…the reason everyone focuses on those No. 1 teams is because those are the teams most likely to win it all. Simply put, they're the best.
Since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, No. 1 seeds have won the title 14 out of 24 years. That’s nearly 60 percent.
And it’s not just titles. Top seeds win 80 percent of the time (328-82 since ’85), compared to No. 2 seeds (231-92, 71.5 percent), No. 3 seeds (175-93, 65.3) and No. 4 (146-95, 60.6).
Year 1 seed 2 seed 3 seed 4 seed
2008 19-3* 7-4 10-4 3-4
2007 17-3* 12-4 8-4 5-4
2006 11-4 10-4 9-3* 7-4
2005 15-3* 7-4 5-4 6-4
2004 9-4 12-3* 10-4 7-4
2003 13-4 9-4 13-3* 3-4
2002 13-3* 11-4 6-4 5-4
2001 16-3* 8-4 8-4 4-4
2000 10-3* 6-4 6-4 7-4
1999 17-3* 5-4 7-4 6-4
1998 11-4 12-3* 10-4 5-4
1997 15-4 7-4 3-4 11-3*
1996 13-3* 12-4 7-4 8-4
1995 13-3* 15-4 3-4 8-4
1994 13-3* 12-4 10-4 6-4
1993 18-3* 8-4 7-4 5-4
1992 13-3* 10-4 5-4 8-4
1991 13-4 10-3* 10-4 7-4
1990 12-3* 5-4 7-4 10-4
1989 11-4 11-4 13-3* 6-4
1988 14-4 10-4 4-4 5-4
1987 16-3 11-4 4-4 2-4
1986 13-4 10-3* 3-4 5-4
1985 13-4 11-4 7-4 4-4
Overall 328-82 231-92 175-93 146-95
*--won title
Being a No. 1 seed matters because it’s a major indicator of NCAA tournament success. Other factors – winning margin, FG percentage, points scored, etc – matter too, but the top seed is a surefire way ensure success. Usually. Unless you’re DePaul.
