Vegas vs. the computer, Year 2
Posted: Thursday, March 26, 2009 8:21 AM
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March Madness
Time to start a tradition. Isn't that what March is about?
Instead of me tossing more predictions out there for the Sweet 16, I'll turn to two tried and tested prognosticators: Las Vegas and Ken Pomeroy's computer.
Did this same thing last year; both outlets finished 7-1 (neither would bite on Davidson beating Wisconsin). This year, there isn't much difference between the two again. The point spreads are a little different, but they agree on six of the eight games, including all the No. 1 seeds (which makes sense -- every top seed has made it to the Elite Eight the last three years).
THURSDAY'S GAMES
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Purdue
kenpom.com: UConn wins 68-63 (73 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: UConn by 7 points, over/under 134.5.
No. 1 Pitt vs. No. 4 Xavier
kenpom.com: Pitt wins 72-67 (68 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Pitt by 7 points, over/under 139.
No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 3 Missouri
kenpom.com: Memphis wins 70-66 (68 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Memphis by 4.5, over/under 141.
None of these are a surprise. The Huskies won their first two games by an average of 41 points, but Purdue should be able to keep things closer.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Villanova
kenpom.com: Duke wins 75-72 (59 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Duke by 2, over/under 148.
Here's one where I'll disagree with both (though I know one reader will think I'm crazy). Villanova looked fabulous against UCLA last week, and has the guards to disrupt Duke's offense. Sure, the Wildcats will let teams hang around, but I just like their style. Plus, they're in my Final Four.
FRIDAY'S GAMES
No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 12 Arizona
kenpom.com: Louisville wins 74-66 (78 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Louisville by 9, over/under 136.
This is the biggest line of the 8 games, and the one kenpom.com computer is most certain about. I'll say this: Arizona has too many future NBA players on the roster to be that certain.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Gonzaga
kenpom.com: UNC wins 83-82 (56 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: UNC by 8.5, over/under 163.
Why the difference? The Zags are among the most efficient offensive and defensive teams remaining on kenpom's ratings. Essentially, the defense doesn't get enough credit. Vegas doesn't think much of the Zags, but they do think it'll be a track meet (163 total points?!)
No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Syracuse
kenpom.com: Syracuse wins 78-77 (52 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Oklahoma by 1, over/under 153.
You may as well flip a coin if a team's only favored by 1 point, which is what kenpom's done. Will anyone really be surprised if the Orange stop Blake Griffin's Sooners?
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas
kenpom.com: Kansas wins 70-69 (55 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Michigan State by 2, over/under 138.
Another disagreement. Kenpom rates the Jayhawks as more efficient on offense and defense, and doesn't seem concerned that the Spartans already beat KU once this season. Really, it's a coin flip.
Happy watching.
