An early Top 25 for 2009-10
Posted: Monday, April 06, 2009 7:30 PM
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2009-10 season previews
Want to make yourself crazy? Try making a Top 25 for next season before all the dust’s settled with early entries to the NBA draft, late-signing recruits and any coaching changes.
It’s not a complaint, just the way it is. When the NCAA tournament title game ends, people start speculating about next year. Yet there are many, many variables before next year starts.
That said, here’s an early look at the 2009-10 season.
Orlin Wagner/AP |
Sherron Collins
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It differs slightly from Ken Davis’ teams to watch, but features many of the same teams, including the top two: Kansas and Syracuse. After that, it’s wide open. And it’ll likely change before October rolls around …
1. Kansas
Expect Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins back in Lawrence next season. That would give Bill Self every player back from this year’s Big 12 champs, along with five-star prospects in Elijah Johnson, Thomas Robinson and possible Xavier Henry and Lance Stephenson. Is that too much of a good thing?
2. Syracuse
Jim Boeheim told Jonny Flynn to test the NBA draft waters, but unless the star point guard is a Top 10 pick, he’s supposed to be back for his sophomore season. If that happens, the Orange will be deadly. They’ll have all five starters back.
3. Duke
Scoff if you choose. The Devils will probably lose Gerald Henderson to the NBA, but they’ll bring back every other starter to pair with five-star prospects Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee. Adding them to a 30-win team is sick.
4. Purdue
The Boilermakers dealt with more injuries this season than nearly any other contender. If Robbie Hummel’s back is healthy, Purdue should be the Big Ten’s best team. It returns every starter, including budding superstar JaJuan Johnson.
5. West Virginia
Maybe the Mountaineers looked strange among kenpom.com’s Top 10 this season, but get used to it. They’ll lose senior Alex Ruoff and perhaps freshman Devin Ebanks, but having a healthy Joe Mazzulla makes up for it.
6. Wake Forest
Big “if” here. James Johnson already declared for the NBA draft, but coach Dino Gaudio expects forward Al-Farouq Aminu and point guard Jeff Teague to return. If that happens, Wake could be the preseason No. 1.
7. Michigan State
Kalin Lucas can carry the Spartans, but he doesn’t have to. MSU returns three starters and has budding stars in Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan.
8. North Carolina
No Tyler Hansbrough, no Danny Green and maybe no Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. No problem. The Heels still have Deon Thompson and Ed Davis up front, and bring in prize recruits John Henson and Leslie McDonald.
9. Florida
The Gators will have too much talent to be an NIT team for three straight seasons. They lose one starter and bring in a dynamite freshman class, headed by star guard Kenny Boynton.
10. Tennessee
Much was expected of Bruce Pearl’s team this season. It was a year too soon. The Vols return every starter, including national player of the year candidate Tyler Smith.
11. Villanova
The Wildcats bring in freshman swingman Dominic Cheek and three other four-star recruits. Paired with Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding and the two Coreys, ‘Nova should make it 5 Sweet 16s in the last six years.
12. Ohio State
So B.J. Mullens is going pro. Big deal. The Buckeyes will bring back Evan Turner, David Lighty and every other starter.
13. Pittsburgh
DeJuan Blair isn’t ready for the NBA. If he stays, it’ll offset the loss of Levance Fields, Sam Young and Tyrell Biggs. Pitt also brings in prep star Dante Taylor.
14. Texas
Longhorns could be higher if Damion James fulfills the sky-high expectations surrounding him. Having Dexter Pittman and five-star prospects Jordan Hamilton and Avery Bradley offsets the loss of A.J. Abrams.
15. Florida State
The ‘Noles lose Toney Douglas, but feature perhaps the nation’s most imposing frontcourt in Solomon Alabi, Chris Singleton and Jordan Mercy.
16. Washington
The Huskies will be small next season, but it won’t matter. You try guarding Isaiah Thomas, Quincy Pondexter and incoming point guard Abdul Gaddy.
17. Kentucky
Another wild-card. Wildcats could be much higher if Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson stick around and depending on how many five-star recruits John Calipari can lure to Lexington.
18. Minnesota
Tubby Smith returns all five starters and brings in a solid recruiting class. Gophers’ biggest problem will be dealing with Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State.
19. Cal
Patrick Christopher is submitting his name for the NBA draft, but expect him back in Berkeley. That’ll give Mike Montgomery every starter back on perhaps the Pac-10’s best team.
20. Butler
The Bulldogs averaged 28 wins a season the last three years. That won’t change with everyone returning, including Horizon player of the year Matt Howard.
21. Michigan
Four starters return for John Beilein, which means the Wolverines have another year to adjust to his specialized offense. It’s also bad news for everyone else.
22. Texas A&M
Aggies lose sharpshooter Josh Carter, but bring back everyone else, including floor leader Donald Sloan and big men Bryan Davis and Chinemelu Elonu.
23. Clemson
K.C. Rivers is gone, but Trevor Booker and Terrence Oglesby return. Tigers should have another strong start.
24. UCLA
Strange to think that the Bruins would be this low, but Ben Howland’s team has a lot of unknowns. How to replace Darren Collison and Josh Shipp? Are the prized recruits ready?
25. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys’ run-n-shoot offense is tough to stop, but will it struggle without Byron Eaton running the show?
Just missed
Georgetown (if Greg Monroe returns, Hoyas are a Top 20 team), Missouri (by end of season, Tigers will be a Top 25 team), Louisville (losing Terrence Williams, JerryAndre McGee and likely Earl Clark is too much) and Connecticut (at least three starters are gone, and Hasheem Thabeet is probably going pro.)
