Beyond the Arc : Rankings

Syracuse can't get any better ... can it?

Mike Miller — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:35:00 GMT

OK, so everyone (me included) who didn’t include Syracuse on their preseason Top 25s turned out to be dumb. Only the coaches’ poll listed the Orange, and they were No. 25 in that.

But after crushing Cal (then ranked 13^th) and North Carolina (No. 6) last week, Syracuse vaulted to No. 10 in the AP poll, one of the biggest jumps in the poll’s history. Only two teams went from unranked to higher – and both ‘em logged more impressive wins, hard as that is to believe.

The most impressive move from unranked to ranked was Kansas’ jump in to No. 4 in 1989 after beating No. 2 LSU, No. 1 UNLV and No. 25 St. John’s in the Preseason NIT.

Second on the list was Arizona coming in at No. 8 in 2001 following wins over No. 2 Maryland and No. 7 Florida in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic and a victory over No. 23 Texas.

Still, give the Orange their props. No team’s had a better start thus far. (No other team’s played two Top 15 teams either, but hey, just sayin’.)

Should they be higher, lower? Does it matter? Now they’ll do the slow burn to Big East conference play, with only a Dec. 10 showdown against Florida looming as a possible stumbling point. ‘Cuse is going to be a Big East title contender, though BP’s John Gasaway says there one important thing to note about the start: The offense probably can’t play any better.

Me, paraphrasing: ‘Cuse is making 63 percent of its twos (only Georgetown’s made more than 57.7 percent of their twos in conference play in the last seven years), scored 1.16 PPP vs. Cal and UNC (insanely good) and Wesley Johnson, as good as he is, probably won’t continue to make 47 percent of his 3s and 62 percent of his 2s. If he does, he should go No. 1 in the draft.

So Syracuse is playing really, really good right now. Don’t expect it to get better … but that wouldn’t be possible, right?

Follow me on Twitter (@BeyndArcMMiller) and get more college basketball news at NBCSports.com.

How to aggravate a team's fan base

Mike Miller — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:58:00 GMT

If you’ve ever wanted to aggravate a team’s fan base with a compliment, click here.

By ranking Maryland’s Greivis Vazquez as the second-best shooting guard in the country (pretty good right?) and Scottie Reynolds No. 7, Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News managed to spur non-stop banter about his basketball acumen. Namely that he didn’t have any.

Readers were miffed that Vazquez wasn’t listed among the top point guards, and weren’t happy to see him among the shooting guards.

How does someone with such a tiny amount of knowledge/insight about the game write for a living about college basketball? Seriously no Vasquez from MD? He is the best point guard in the ACC and at least top 5 in the country.

If that wasn’t enough, DeCourcy’s graf on Vazquez aggravated the guys at Turtle Soup, who saw it as a backhanded compliment.

For a guy who doesn't make many 3s, he has tried a lot of them — because the Terps have needed somebody to try something. They should be more complete this season, allowing Vasquez to be more judicious.

OK, so DeCourcy didn’t laud Vazquez’s aggressiveness or his playmaking skills. But it reminds me of Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame induction speech: No praising, just an honest assessment. Did Vazquez shoot too much last season? Probably. But somebody had to carry the Terps.

Note to self: On the safe side, refer to Vaquez as a point guard…

Ranking the teams of the 2000s

Mike Miller — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 00:56:00 GMT

The 2009 national title game settled the conventional argument of the “team of the decade.” North Carolina and Michigan State each entered the game with one title, both reached four Final Fours and had similar overall records.

And when the Heels won, it assured them bragging rights. But what about everyone else?

For that, we turn to the fine folks at Rush the Court.

Their hybrid analysis ranking system (their term) considered several factors, notably titles, Final Fours, conference crowns, draft picks and All-Americans, among others. The methodology passes the sniff test. The results pass the eye test, too.

Their list will complete tomorrow when (presumably) UNC assumes the top spot. In the meantime, click here to read their posts on teams 2-10.

Of the schools involved – Kansas, Florida, Duke, Michigan State, UConn, UCLA, Memphis, Syracuse and Maryland – only two didn’t claim NCAA tourney titles. All of ‘em reached the Final Four and won at least one conference crown, etc., etc.

With any luck, RTC also will do a follow-up post on other colleges considered. How close were programs like Texas, Gonzaga, Stanford, Pitt, Illinois or Xavier? How much did the lack of NCAA tourney success hurt those schools?

So many questions. So many answers. After all, there’s no perfect way to do something like this. But RTC did it well.

Rankings post-NCAAs, pre-draft, mid-signing

Mike Miller — Thu, 01 May 2008 18:19:00 GMT

The post-Final Four, pre-NBA draft, mid-late-signing period 2008-09 preseason college basketball rankings can be tricky.

Thankfully, the Web is here to help.

SI.com’s Luke Winn updated his power rankings Monday. Boosted by Hasheem Thabeet’s return, he puts UConn No. 1. Smart move. The Huskies are coming off a 24-9 season, return all five starters and should have point guard A.J. Price healthy for the start of the season. (Even if he’s not ready for the opener, Price’s return would be the equivalent of Brandon Rush’s torn ACL for Kansas last year – it assured the team’s most indispensible player would be back in uniform, even if he was sluggish to start.)

The rest of his top 10 – UCLA, UNC, Duke, Purdue, Pitt, Louisville, Tennessee, Texas, Notre Dame – sounds about right, though I’d drop UCLA a couple spots. Darren Collison’s return gives the Bruins arguably the nation’s best backcourt, but where their frontcourt scoring will come from, I don’t know. Certainly not from Luc Richard Mbah a Moute or James Keefe.

It seems likely that both Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington will return to Chapel Hill. With Tyler Hansbrough already in pocket and more frontcourt recruits coming in, the Heels remain one of the teams to beat. (That doesn’t include Obama suiting up).

Oddly enough, Vegas has it even right now between UConn, Louisville, Pitt and Georgetown. I know Greg Monroe’s good, but he better be Beasleyesque to make up for the loss of Roy Hibbert and Vernon Macklin.

The one surprise omission from Winn’s group has to be Wake Forest.

The Deacons finished 17-13 last season, and if not for a 1-5 finish, a squad primarily of freshmen and sophomores would’ve been in the NCAA Tournament. Adding a top-flight recruiting class for 2008 should make Wake a top 15 team next season (think Purdue).

The remaining wild-cards for next year? Signing any remaining high schoolers, and seeing who stays in the draft and how those moves affect any transfers or incoming freshmen.

An example: this excellent piece from ESPN’s Dana O’Neil traces Scottie Reynolds’ arc from Oklahoma to Villanova in 2006. Reynolds committed to the Sooners, changed his mind once Kelvin Sampson took the Indiana job, and waited to see if ‘Nova’s Kyle Lowry would stay in the draft (he did) before settling on Jay Wright’s Wildcats.

The remaining prep stars have until May 21 to sign, while the last day for underclassmen to withdraw from the NBA draft is June 16. (List of early entrants can be found here.)

That leaves us with a post-Final Four, pre-NBA draft, post-late-signing period rankings, the post-draft, late summer rankings (this is getting complicated) and (finally) the preseason rankings to come.

Better do all those in pencil…

Rating the contenders, pretenders

Mike Miller — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 01:18:00 GMT

Enjoyed a week off to celebrate the holidays – and a sweet win for Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Not ready to anoint the Jayhawks as the latest football/basketball power, but it was a sweet present, nonetheless.

However, the week left me behind the curve on conference play beginning, so I’ll offer up some of the best looks at college basketball’s second season.

The Big 12 has been better than expected, writes our own expert, Ken Davis. Sure, we all knew Kansas would be a title contender (and after a thrashing of Boston College on Saturday, the Jayhawks earned some serious props for their play thus far. Then again, BC lost to Robert on Monday. Hold off on that title talk.), but Texas, Oklahoma and A&M are all capable of reaching the Elite Eight.

There’s a rundown of all six BCS conferences from FOX Sports’ Jeff Goodman, who points out the Cal Bears should be a darkhorse teams coming out of the Pac-10. If that’s true, it’ll be because of their offense, which rates among the Top 10 on kenpom.com’s adjusted efficiency. Between Ryan Anderson, DeVon Hardin and Patrick Christopher, Cal has the size and skill to hang with most teams. Defense, though…

Speaking of Pomeroy, he and John Gasaway cover a lot of ground in their latest back and forth. My favorite aspect? Tubby Smith. His Gophers have lost two straight, but opened plenty of eyes after a close loss to Michigan State on Saturday. They may squeek into the NCAA Tournament this season with the same personnel that was 9-22 last season.

Smith’s old school? After a start most ‘Cats fans will have nightmares about the rest of their lives, Billy Gillispie’s been trying to stay positive. It’ll be tough. Kentucky will be pushed to finish above .500, which, as Jerry Tipton points out, isn’t good for the SEC as a whole.

We’re down to six unbeaten teams (after UNC escaped by the skin of its teeth on Sunday night). Here’s a comprehensive rundown of the schools and what could derail their perfect starts. Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy says one of those, Vandy, gets its chance to silence all doubters on Jan. 17 at Tennessee. (That’s if the Commodores get by Kentucky…)

When it comes to mid-major analysis, always turn to Kyle Whelliston. His rundown of non-BCS schools who could be contenders is good reading, but his Boubacars on the midmajority.com are essential reading. Insight, wit and statistics all in one package.

Finally, here’s one for everybody thinking ahead to their brackets.

SI.com’s Luke Winn compared the teams in the Top 25 to adjusted efficiency ratings on kenpom.com, which he’s done for the last two seasons. (When we should’ve known teams like Alabama and Oklahoma State might not have been as good as their rankings.)

Important findings to consider:

<li>Texas, Vandy, Butler, Oregon, Ole Miss, ‘Nova and Rhode Island, all among the Top 25, don’t have the requisite defense to make a Final Four run.

<li>Kansas, Duke and Marquette are the elite offensive and defensive teams. (At least when he wrote it last week; West Virginia has since supplanted Marquette as one of three teams in the top 10 for each category.)

<li>West Virginia, Xavier, New Mexico, Drake and Gonzaga are five unranked teams who are efficient enough to make a deep run.

But there’s one issue I have with Winn’s elite teams. Those three may be ranked among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, but that doesn’t mean his tier 2 and tier 3 teams aren’t as dominant. More than a dozen teams have at least a 30-point margin between their AdjO and AdjD. Last year, UCLA's margin was 32.8 and they were as dominant as any team in the country.

Also, Kansas and Duke have the highest margin between their AdjO and AdjD, but the strength of schedule for both teams is around 100. Meanwhile, a team like Arizona is 9-4, has the 3^rd toughest schedule in the country, and still ranks among the elite offensive teams in the country. Memphis, Xavier and Texas have played top 25 schedules, and are dynamite in adjusted efficiency.

It’s one thing to statistically judge teams, but not considering the quality of their opponents is foolish. (Which was the downfall of Oklahoma State and Clemson last year.)

Check out this week’s Top 25, and specifically, the top teams in it. Washington State, Georgetown and Indiana all have strengths of schedule in the 200s. Ole Miss is close at 186.

If you’re looking for some teams who may be overrated, they would be a good place to start. Watch them closely during conference play.

Surprise! The return of the A-10

Mike Miller — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 21:18:00 GMT

In a season where few teams have been actual surprises to start the year – Ole Miss, Miami (Fla.), Saint Mary’s, Drake, among the most notable – the most impressive group start has to be from the Atlantic 10, where the conference is off to its best start since St. Joseph’s stole the hoops spotlight in 2003-04.

Huh. Has Jameer Nelson really been in the NBA four years? Doesn’t seem that long ago when Nelson was leading St. Joe’s to a 30-2 season and just missing out on the Final Four. His Hawks and Xavier, which also reached the Elite Eight that season, helped make the A-10 one of that season’s big stars.

That hasn’t been the case for the A-10 the last few years.

The league was ranked 15^th, 11^th and 10^th in conference RPI the seasons following St. Joe’s run. Usually a multiple-bid conference, only George Washington and Xavier have made the NCAA Tournament the last three years, a reflection of poorer league play as others, like the Missouri Valley and the Mountain West, featured deeper and far better teams.

This year, the A-10, which has two ranked teams in this week’s AP poll in Dayton and Rhode Island, is just behind the MVC in conference RPI. A-10 teams have a .632 winning percentage against non-conference foes, the league’s best since 1997-98. More impressive are the teams the teams at the top. UMass and Xavier join Dayton and R.I. in the top 25 in RPI – tied with the Big 12 for most teams in the top 25.

(For those who quibble with the RPI – which has its problems, but is one of the main considerations when it comes to at-large bids for the NCAA Tournament, so you have to reference it – the A-10 isn’t as hot in pomeroy ratings or on bbstate.com. Only Xavier is in Pomeroy’s top 25; St. Joe’s and Xavier are ranked in bbstate’s top 25.)

Leading the way are Dayton – properly lauded by multiple pundits for their impressive win over Pittsburgh on Saturday – and Rhode Island.

And few saw starts like that coming.

The Flyers (11-1) are off to their best start since 1955-56, when they won their first 14. Wins against Pitt, Louisville and an underrated Miami (Ohio), with an All-American caliber player in Brian Roberts give them a good chance at a run in the Big Dance.

Rhode Island (13-1) has an even more historic start, its best since 1946-47. The Rams’ only loss is to B.C., and have beaten Providence, Syracuse. They’re not as impressive on paper as Dayton, but can’t be overlooked.

Both will be gunning for the A-10 title, but Xavier, UMass, St. Joe’s and even Duquense (8-3, its best start since 1979-80) could make that conference race interesting for once. And maybe even result in 3-5 bids in the NCAA Tournament.

Now that would be a pleasant surprise reward for a proud hoops league.

Who's the 1? (Part II, with a champ)

Mike Miller — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 21:12:00 GMT

Jeff Green never put up big stats for Georgetown last season, but everyone knew how integral the junior swingman was to the Hoyas’ Final Four run. The Big East player of the year was arguably the nation’s best defender, Georgetown’s go-to guy in the clutch and set the tone for efficient, solid play that typified a 30-7 Georgetown squad.

But was Green so good that his early departure to the NBA is scaring off supporters for another run to the Final Four? The Hoyas are slated by a few outlets (Blue Ribbon, Athlon) to reach the Final Four, but none of the bigger media like SI.com, CBS, FOX (and, to be fair, msnbc.com) favor the Hoyas to return to the Final Four.

Seems a little crazy to me.

Green was indeed one of college hoops’ best players last season, but that shouldn’t make Georgetown any less dangerous this season. The beauty of coach John Thompson III’s system is how it relies on every player, not just one. Center Roy Hibbert may be the focal point, but guards Jonathan Wallace, DaJuan Summers and standouts Patrick Ewing Jr., Vernon Macklin, and Austin Freeman should make up for that absence.

And I think that consistency and ruthless efficiency – not to mention stellar defense – Thompson’s teams have become known for make them the team to beat in San Antonio.

And the other contenders? Here’s a list of who should be playing after the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend. Submit your own in the comments field below.

Champion: Georgetown

Final Four: Kansas (runner-up), North Carolina, Memphis

Out in Elite Eight: Indiana, Louisville, Tennessee, UCLA.

Out in Sweet 16: Arkansas, Davidson, Kentucky, Marquette, Michigan State , N.C. State, Texas, VCU.

Who's the 1? (Part 1)

Mike Miller — Sat, 20 Oct 2007 23:23:00 GMT

Everyone’s got an opinion when it comes to who’s No. 1 in men’s basketball. And it’s one of those season when it doesn’t look like there’s going to be a consensus.

But after a season where Florida rolled to its second-straight NCAA Tournament title, a little variety at the top will be refreshing.

Our preseason Top 25 is available here. Ken Davis has tabbed North Carolina (the 2005 champs in one of those season where most everyone picked the Heels to win before everything started), as the team to beat, followed by UCLA, Louisville and Memphis. Not bad.

(If you disagree, cast your vote here and check in here to see what our readers think of the Heels’ chances during the season.)

And, because it’s still two weeks before the polls come out, not everyone has tabbed their champion yet. FOX Sports’ Jeff Goodman rolled out No. 23 in their season preview on Saturday. CHN is doing the same thing, though UCLA was No. 1 in its preseason top 50 that was published in June.

But ESPN’s Jay Bilas also likes UNC, as does SI.com’s Luke Winn, who places the Heels atop their power rankings. CBS Sports.com’s Gary Parrish, however, likes Memphis.

Sporting News writer Mike DeCourcy thinks it’s UCLA, after back-to-back Final Fours, are ready to cut down the nets, mostly because of fab freshman Kevin Love.

Me? I’m still working my way through all the season preview material (including at Basketball Prospectus, which has two of my favorite tempo-free writers -- Ken Pomeroy and John Gasaway -- doing the previews) and will probably settle on a favorite later next week.

Kansas could be the 1, but that’s just the fan in me talking. For now.