Beyond the Arc : Unbeaten teams

Two teams may not lose until February

Mike Miller — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Three unbeaten teams stayed that way Monday night, as Oklahoma, Ohio State and Wake Forest all beat up on teams they should beat.

The question is, how much longer will college hoops’ perfect teams stay that way?

Those three, along with North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Stanford, Minnesota and Illinois State comprise D-I’s 10 unbeaten squads. Most of them will probably lose their first game in the first few weeks of January, but a couple have a chance to reach February without a loss.

ENJOY IT NOW

Illinois State (11-0) has played the easiest schedule among the 10, so it’s no surprise the Redbirds are also the most likely to lose first. Not that they’re a bad team (25-10 last season and a solid defensive unit), it’s just that it’s tough to say just how good Illinois State really is.

Its best win thus far was a 67-60 victory against Illinois-Chicago on Saturday. Seven of its 11 wins have come against teams in the bottom of kenpom.com’s rankings. And with the next four games coming against four of the Missouri Valley’s better teams (Missouri State, Evansville, Creighton and Bradley), the Redbirds aren’t going to come away unscathed after Jan. 6.

Stanford (7-0) snagged a nice home win against Northwestern on Saturday (holding the Wildcats to 89.3 offensive efficiency, 22 below their average), and should hit 10-0 if it can play the same defense against Texas Tech on Dec. 28.

But that’ll be it for the Cardinal.

Arizona State plays host to Stanford on Jan. 2. Unless James Harden doesn’t play, the Sun Devils are winning that game. Making a trip to Tucson two days later won’t be easy, either.

COLLISION COURSE

Minnesota (10-0) seems ready to rejoin the ranks of NCAA tournament teams. A 70-64 win against Louisville cemented Tubby Smith’s squad as a steady, opportunistic team that can play some defense when needed.

It also may be the Gophers’ best win of the season. Minnesota will be 12-0 when it plays host to Michigan State on New Year’s Eve. The Spartans haven’t been the powerhouse everyone expected yet, but they also just got center Goran Suton healthy. A 67-63 win against Texas was a better indication of what MSU is capable of.

If Minnesota does pull off a win against the Spartans, it’ll face another unbeaten team on Jan. 3 – Ohio State. And that’s a game Minnesota loses.

Ohio State (9-0) has two nasty games of its own before it travels to Minneapolis, though.

The Buckeyes play host to West Virginia (8-2 with a crushingly efficient defense) and an underrated Iowa team (9-3 behind some impressive shooting) then follow up the Minnesota contest with a game against Michigan State. Kenpom.com projects the Buckeyes’ first loss on Jan. 20 against Illinois, but that’s too far away. The Buckeyes have five toss-up games before then – and could very well lose all of them.

BRUTAL BIG EAST

UConn (10-0) is coming off a dramatic win against Gonzaga and is a bona-fide Final Four contender. A.J. Price turned in his best game of the season, while the Huskies also have Stanley Robinson back in the lineup.

But a home game against Georgetown on Dec. 29 could be the end of their perfect start. (Pomeroy thinks so.) If not then, Jan. 6 at West Virginia is another likely stumbling point. Or Jan. 10 at Cincinnati. UConn isn’t making it through January without a loss. The Big East is too tough.

The same reasoning holds true for Pittsburgh (12-0).

The Panthers have started at least 9-0 every season since 2002-03. It’s what they do. But by the time Big East play rolls around, January deals them a couple losses.

Georgetown on Jan. 3 is a likely starting point. Louisville (Jan. 17), Syracuse (Jan. 19), West Virginia (Jan. 25), Villanova (Jan. 28) and Notre Dame (Jan. 31) are Pitt’s final five games of January. That’ll do it.

FEELING BLUE

If Wake Forest (11-0) sneaks by BYU on Jan. 3, it plays host to North Carolina on Jan. 11. That’s a week to prepare for – in all likelihood -- the nation’s No. 1 team.

Wake has the depth to run with the Heels, but it’ll need more efficient scoring out of Jeff Teague to win the game. James Johnson and Al-Farouq Aminu can bang with Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson inside, but Teague’s perimeter play will be the key.

If the Deacons win, their reward is facing Clemson a week later! Brutal.

The Tigers (12-0) are off to another fast start. ~~and don’t start ACC play until Jan. 10 against N.C. State. That means~~ Clemson will almost certainly be 16-0 by the time it plays host to Wake Forest on Jan. 17. So Clemson gets the win. UNC awaits four days later. Done.

So when do the Heels (11-0) lose? According to Pomeroy, not until Feb. 11. But the Heels haven’t made it through the last two Januarys without a loss. Last year it was Maryland, the year before, Va. Tech.

Someone like Miami may pull off a big upset in Chapel Hill on Jan. 17, but…it’s just hard to imagine. Maybe the Heels won’t go unbeaten, but if they lose, it’s going to be to a Top 10 team.

ARE SOONERS THE ONE?

Oklahoma (12-0) isn’t the nation’s best team. That’s Carolina. But the Sooners may very well be the last team to lose a game this season because of their schedule. The Big 12 isn’t a pushover like C-USA (read: Memphis of 2007-08), but Texas, Kansas and K-State aren’t as good as last year and it’s unclear just how good Baylor is.

The Sooners are the class of the conference. Their toughest road game until February is Jan. 10 at K-State. After that, OU doesn’t play a Top 25 team on the road until Feb. 11 at Baylor. Oddly enough, that’s the day Duke plays North Carolina.

If there ever was a day to see college hoops’ final unbeaten teams lose, that’s the day.

Obstacles to Gonzaga's unbeaten season

Mike Miller — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 00:41:00 GMT

Gonzaga’s dismantling (well, second-half dismantling) of Washington State on Wednesday has the Pacific Northwest buzzing.

Jeremy Pargo was brilliant, Josh Heytvelt has never played better and the Zags’ supporting cast is full of long, athletic players. The Zags don’t lack confidence, either. How good are they? “As good as everyone says we are,” Heytvelt told the Seattle Times.

Hey, the guy’s got a point.

The Zags are ranked No. 4 in both polls and have already beaten Tennessee, Maryland and Oklahoma State. With Arizona looming Sunday and UConn on Dec. 20, Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule has plenty of marquee opponents that builds an impressive résumé for March. The Bulldogs have long been one of college hoops’ standout teams, but they’re trying to reach another level this season. Looks like they’ll get there, too.

The quick sum-up: Gonzaga is loaded with talent, plays defense (once a rarity in Spokane) and can score like usual. That makes ‘em prime Final Four material, along with North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Duke and Oklahoma (or so). So there’s that. We’ll see if it happens.

Until then, here’s a better question: Who’s going to beat Gonzaga?

We’ve already had speculation about North Carolina going undefeated this season (mostly because the Heels are so good, it’s insane). Yes, once ACC play is loaded with potential pitfalls. But the Heels are really good.

Gonzaga isn’t as good, but its road to an unbeaten season is just as probable. If they get by the Wildcats and Huskies, only five games remain that could derail a perfect regular season – if that.

Dec. 31 at Utah
Jan. 7 at Tennessee
Jan. 29 vs. St. Mary’s
Feb. 7 vs. Memphis
Feb 12 at St. Mary’s

At Utah and the home game against St. Mary’s, the WCC’s second-best team, should actually be locks, but they could be close to start. The other three are more interesting. I’d guess Gonzaga will be favored against Memphis and in trip to St. Mary’s, but consider those toss-ups.

The Jan. 7 game against the Vols figures to be the biggest obstacle to a perfect season. The Zags already handled Tennessee once this season (83-74 at the Old Spice Classic in November), but heading to Knoxville is an entirely different animal. The Vols ended Memphis’ run at a perfect season last year, and while they’re not as impressive this season, expect Bruce Pearl’s squad to be ready for the Bulldogs.

And for the rest of us to see a run at history.

No. 1 vs. No. 2, by the (hyped) numbers

Mike Miller — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 05:55:00 GMT

College basketball’s regular season gets tagged as blasé, but even naysayers should be pumped about Saturday.

After all, No. 1 vs. No. 2 just doesn’t happen that often. Top 10 games, sure. But this’ll be the 38^th time since 1949 when the top teams face off in what should be the regular-season’s best game.

In this instance, the SEC’s best team, Tennessee, travels to No. 1 Memphis. No, the game isn’t on Tobacco Road, but hoops in the state of Tennessee shouldn’t take a backseat to anyone this season. (Well, maybe Indiana, with its four ranked teams would have something to say about that.)

Especially when one considers Memphis (26-0) hasn’t lost at home in 47 games and wants to avenge last season’s 76-58 thrashing. It all turns an already fierce rivalry into a monster game. (Want a ticket? Got $10,000?)

Beyond all that hype, there’s plenty more:

Expect defenses to take center stage. It’s the nation’s best defensive team vs. a team that thrives on forcing turnovers.

It’ll be fast. Memphis gets more than 71 possessions a game, Tennessee 73.2.

Joey Dorsey will own the boards. The Vols’ Wayne Chism is good (10.3 OR%, 20.2 DR%), but Memphis’ beast on the inside is among the top 10 in OR% (16.3) and DR% (28.4).

The free-throw line will hardly be free. Tennessee is 302^nd in FT percentage, but Memphis is worse at 338^th (58.8 percent!).

Kenpom.com expects an 81-71 Memphis win. I think it’ll be like 89-85, Memphis. Feels like a game where the Vols can keep it close with outside shooting and balanced scoring, but will fall short in a hostile environment.

More tidbits?

The last time an undefeated No. 1 team played No. 2 this late in the season, top-ranked UNLV beat Arkansas, 112-105, on Feb. 10, 1991 in Fayetteville, Ark.
Before this season, Memphis spent one week at No. 1 in the polls. It lost, 64-56, to Virginia Tech on Jan. 10, 1983.
Tennessee has beaten No. 1 once. Dec. 6, 1969 at South Carolina.
No. 1 has won 19 of the 37 meetings against No. 2, but has lost five of the last 6, including Wisconsin’s 49-48 loss to Ohio State last season.

What's perfection mean for Memphis, UConn?

Mike Miller — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 04:58:00 GMT

One undefeated New England may have lost Sunday, but there’s another still standing. And it’s an awfully familiar unbeaten sight.

The UConn women’s team torched Providence on Saturday, setting up a showdown against Big East rival Rutgers on Tuesday. Rutgers beat the Huskies in the Big East Championship last season and was the conference representative in the Final Four, losing to Tennessee in the title game. Since then, the Huskies (21-0) have torn through the competition, winning all but one game by double-digit margins.

There’s some symmetry that another team from the New England region would be toying with a perfect record, too. Geno Auriemma’s squad was the last D-I college basketball team to finish a season unbeaten, going 39-0 in 2001-02. (The last men’s team? Bob Knight’s 1975-76 Indiana squad.)

This year’s version may be just as good as the two previous undefeated squads (’95 was the other), because of its depth and ability on both ends of the court. The Huskies average more than 80 points a game and allow less than 50.

Of course, Memphis’ men’s team is no slouch either. It just takes me out of the New England theme…

The No. 1 Tigers (21-0) are off to the best start in school history, and despite a lackluster win against UTEP on Saturday, they remain a good bet to enter the NCAA Tournament without a loss. That hasn’t been done since UNLV in 1991.

However, if there’s a weakness in the Memphis machine, it’s the free-throw shooting.

(Memphis’ three-point shooting stinks too. Yet even at 34.0 percent, it’s positively scorching compared to the free-throw shooting, which is dead last among D-I schools on kenpom.com.)

The Tigers missed 20 free throws against UTEP, which has to be a major concern for coach John Calipari. Instead of putting teams away in crunch time, Memphis could very well clang its way out of the record books. No team has ever finished a season 40-0, which Memphis would do with an NCAA title.

As the Patriots’ loss showed, no team is perfect. Memphis or UConn could be knocked off that perfect porch soon, too.

Then again, what’s perfection mean, anyway? John Wooden – who had four undefeated championship teams at UCLA – says his best squad may have been the 29-1 squad of 1967-68. (I maintain few things are as enticing as the thought of the perfect season, yet must admit the crushing expectations that come with it make it tough to actually deliver on that final game.)

If Memphis or UConn do lose a game, but still win the title, it wouldn't diminish their seasons. Just ask the Pats.

Just how good are UNC, Memphis and Kansas?

Mike Miller — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 03:49:00 GMT

These guys are good.

North Carolina, Memphis and Kansas. Three undefeated teams, all loaded with future NBA players and carrying Final Four expectations and title aspirations.

It’s funny, too. They’ve been this good all season.

This was the preseason AP poll.

North Carolina (29) 0-0 1,728
UCLA (24) 0-0 1,710
Memphis (18) 0-0 1,680
Kansas 0-0 1,568

The fifth was Georgetown, which received the only other first-place vote and was the only other team to garner more than 1,500 points. These were supposedly the elite teams.

And after 11 weeks, little has changed. When the rankings come out Monday, those will be the top 5 teams again. UCLA, after taking apart previously unbeaten Washington State, is as good as ever (with Kevin Love, maybe even better than the last two seasons). The Hoyas aren’t as imposing, but a win against Pitt tonight will improve their public perception even more.

But it goes back to those unbeaten teams. Just when will they lose? Ever?

According to kenpom.com, North Carolina (17-0) will be the first. The Heels have a 2.51 percent chance of winning the rest of their games, which makes sense.

The ACC is once again atop the RPI, elevating the Heels’ schedule to a tougher level than Kansas’ or Memphis’. UNC just dismantled N.C. State, but nothing’s guaranteed during a team’s conference schedule. The Heels needed OT to escape at Clemson, and trips to Miami, FSU, Virginia and B.C. remain, not to mention two games against Duke.

Kansas (16-0) has a slightly higher chance of not losing – 13.67 percent. After facing Oklahoma and Missouri this week (Tigers get to play KU at home, never an easy place to play and where I picked the Jayhawks to lose back in December), they don’t face the real meat of their Big 12 schedule until February. (Playing at K-State on Jan. 30 doesn’t count. KU hasn’t lost in Manhattan since 1983.)

A trip to Texas on Feb. 11 is a serious obstacle, as is the March 8 regular-season finale at Texas A&M. But the odds of the Jayhawks rolling into College Station 30-0 is remote.

That brings us to Memphis, which has a 47.3 percent chance of being unbeaten, according to kenpom.com. (Hard to believe it’s that low considering the Tigers are 29-1 in the regular-season against C-USA the last two seasons, but it’s true that conference games are never a gimme AND games against Tennessee and Gonzaga remain. Pomeroy wrote a separate piece on the Tigers’ chances of going undefeated on basketballprospectus.com, where he says there’s a 10 percent chance of a 40-0 season.)

ANYWAY, if these powerhouses continue their great starts, we may have three teams undefeated heading into February. Maybe even two unbeaten teams when March rolls around (which last happened in 2004 when St. Joe’s and Stanford pulled that trick). At that point, the inevitable question will arise: Is a loss before the NCAA Tournament a good thing?

Seth Davis says no, mostly because it helps with it would relive any added pressure that comes with trying to win the NCAA Tournament. (So what if no undefeated team has won the title since 1976.; no 1-loss team has either, and there have been 18 of those.) I side with Pomeroy – forget that. Go for history.

If there’s anything we should learn from other sports and apply here, take a page from the New England Patriots’ perfect run. No one sets out to lose a game, but a shot at making history and being one of the only unbeaten national champions is worth the added “stress” of entering the NCAA Tournament without a loss.

If you can make history, you do it. You don't worry about how stressful it might be.

Which unbeaten is last one standing?

Mike Miller — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 22:01:00 GMT

There are 14 unbeaten men’s teams remaining in D-I. How many will remain at the end of the month?

Better yet, what about at the end of January? It’s been three years since a team made it through the first three months of the season without a loss. (That remarkable Illinois team was 29-0 and didn’t lose until March 3.) The year before, St. Joe’s had a perfect regular season before losing in the A-10 tourney.

Different story the last two seasons, though. Last year, Clemson was 17-0 before losing on Jan. 13 to Maryland. J.J. Redick’s 2005-06 Duke squad had the same mark before losing at Georgetown on Jan. 21.

So who would be the most likely candidates to get to February without a loss? Let’s start with who’s most unlikely to do so.

Two teams are guaranteed to drop next week. Duke (9-0) plays Pitt (9-0) in NYC next Thursday, while Georgetown (7-0) travels to Memphis (8-0) next Saturday. The Blue Devils’ depth should outlast a solid Pitt squad, which isn’t a dig on the Panthers. They’re 10-0 for the fifth straight season. But this Duke squad play that swarming defense Coach’s K’s teams are known for and are vastly improved from last year’s putrid offense.

The Hoyas and Tigers are a little trickier, though. Georgetown hasn’t played anyone very good, while Memphis has beaten USC and gotten neutral court wins over UConn and Oklahoma. Memphis will be favored – and should be, playing at home – but John Calipari’s team is too haphazard right now for my taste. I like the Hoyas.

(For the record, if Memphis does win, it may not lose again until the NCAA Tournament.)

Two down. I’d also expect Mississippi (8-0) to lose against Clemson next Saturday and Texas-Arlington (6-0) to do the same at Oklahoma State.

Though I’ll be rooting for the Mavericks. They, along with Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin have forced us to pay attention to the Southland Conference this season. Those three have a combined record of 16-1 and have an average RPI of 42. Sam Houston State (9-0) probably loses to San Diego State on Dec. 28. If both should somehow make it through unscathed for their Feb. 2 showdown, yikes. That’ll be one for the mid-major ages.

That’s nine remaining.

Clemson loses at Alabama on Jan. 1(nice 12-0 start, though), while the second week of January should see loses by Washington State (L.A. road swing too tough), Vanderbilt at Kentucky (no good reason other than the ‘Cats will be due for some good wins by then) and Texas.

Few teams have been as impressive as Texas this season, but a two-game swing against the Big Ten (Michigan State on Dec. 22 and Dec. 29 vs. Wisconsin) is a lot to ask. Both play solid defense and the Spartans have enough athletic big men to give the Longhorns fits. Instead, I doubt Texas loses until a Jan. 12 trip to Columbus, Mo.

More mid-January losses? Miami, Fla. won’t get past Jan. 15 without a loss. Georgetown will lose to Pitt on Jan. 14.

Another tight game to watch is North Carolina at Clemson on Jan. 6. Try as I might, can’t see the Heels losing that one if they’re healthy. But getting through the rest of January without a loss to N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami and Boston College is a tall order.

We’re down to two.

If Kansas – and this is unlikely – gets through a spate of good games (at Georgia Tech, at Boston College, vs. Miami (Ohio), at Nebraska) they’ll probably lose Jan. 19 at Missouri. The Tigers are an improved team this season (see the Texas graf) and should hold court.

Which leaves us … Duke. I have no love for the Devils, but realize they’re deep, balanced and motivated after a sub-par season.

They also should benefit by playing Clemson and Virginia at home. Games at Virginia Tech and Maryland in late January will be tough, but I’d expect some wins.

However, they travel to Chapel Hill on Feb. 6. And that’s where the last unbeaten team loses this season.

Disagree? Post a comment below. And make sure you cast your vote here.