Beyond the Arc : Conference USA

Memphis making an ultra-clean Calipari break

Mike Miller — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 03:17:00 GMT

Memphis is doing its best to make a clean break from John Calipari.

It might sound odd, given that Calipari’s nine years at the school resulted in its most glorious seasons. The Tigers racked up wins like no other school in NCAA history, dominated Conference USA and came this close to an NCAA title in 2008.

But between the offseason double whammy of Calipari’s departure for Kentucky and the NCAA vacating 38 wins and that runner-up finish because of an eligibility mess, a clean break seems smart. And this is as clean as it gets. From the Memphis Commercial-Appeal:

Now, just seven months after the Calipari-Memphis divorce, it's hard to find evidence that he was even here. The Elvis-like poster of him hanging on the wall of the Finch Center has been taken down. The 2009-10 Memphis media guide includes no mention or picture of Calipari outside of the school records.

At Memphis Madness, Calipari's image was excluded from a video montage highlighting every great era in Tiger basketball history. In perhaps an even more poignant statement, the video opened with the words, "Not one player, not one coach, not one season."

To be fair, no school spends much time lauding the coaches who leave for other jobs, particularly in the media guide. That’s a space reserved for the new regime and the current season’s players. As Mark McGwire might say, why dwell on the past?

And it can’t be easy for current coach Josh Pastner, who was a Calipari assistant last season. He knows how important his former boss was to Memphis’ ascension the last few years.

But this seems like a smack at Cal, who did his best to promote Memphis and his own brand. Even now, Calipari is a non-stop promoter of Kentucky hoops … but he also does a fine job of touting his own success at the same time.

That’s just who Calipari is. And as long as Kentucky is successful under him, it won’t matter one bit to Big Blue Nation.

The same goes for Memphis. If the Tigers can win under Pastner, it won’t matter one bit how he does it compared to Calipari. Then we can move on from media guide posts and back to games.

Follow me on Twitter (@BeyndArcMMiller) and get more college basketball news at NBCSports.com.

Memphis' savior for 2009-10? The 3-pointer

Mike Miller — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 18:35:00 GMT

One of the best ways those scrappy underdogs pull off NCAA tournament upsets is to shoot a ton of 3-pointers and hit the boards. Then again, it’s a good way to avoid an upset, too.

Just ask Memphis. Roburt Sallie’s 3-point barrage in the tourney’s opening round last season saved the Tigers against Cal State Northridge.

And, in case you haven’t heard, Memphis lost most of its players and its coach from last season’s 33-4 squad. So what to do?

Mark Humphrey/AP

Does Josh Pastner have the answer to Memphis' season?

New coach Josh Pastner thinks he has the answer: 3-pointers.

Hey, why not? Pastner was on the sideline when Sallie went nuts. It may sound strange that a team that lost its top four scorers can actually be good at shooting, but Pastner likes what he sees.

"I don't like to live and die by the 3-point shot," Pastner told the Memphis Commericial Appeal. "But on our team, one of our strengths is our shooting ability. We're going to have to do that."

The 3-pointer has long been one of college hoops’ great equalizers. They’re a better option than mid-range shots and even when the line was extended last season, it didn’t affect teams too much.

Not that Pastner wants his team doing a Grinnell College and jack up a shot every 2.4 seconds. It’ll start with Sallie, and other guys like seniors Doneal Mack and Willie Kemp will have to improve. Neither shot better than 33 percent last season.

As a team, Memphis hasn’t shot better than 36.1 percent anytime this decade. But compare that to a team like Tennessee – which made less than 32 percent of its attempts beyond the arc – and 36 percent sounds like Larry Bird.

"We do have good shooters on the team," Pastner said. "I want to give these guys as much confidence as we can, and if they have an open shot I don't want them to think about it. Just let it fly. That doesn't mean come down and jack a three. It's starting inside-out, whether that's via the dribble or the pass to suck the defense in and kick it out for an open 3-point shot."

Besides, Memphis didn’t shoot the 3 that poorly against Conference-USA teams, which is a good sign for maintaining their status as league bullies. And really, that’s half the battle. Winning 30 games or more every season too much to ask of any program. Guys leave, players get hurt or you catch a few bad bounces.

But if the Tigers can maintain their NCAA tournament streak and maintain some national exposure by beating up on inferior conference teams (Gonzaga’s perfected it), then a potential re-building year is easier to accept.

And who knows? Maybe the 3 will keep the Tigers on a roll.

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Memphis rules C-USA with an iron fist

Mike Miller — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:05:00 GMT

Memphis hasn’t lost a Conference USA game in nearly three years.

Let that sink in.

Since losing Thursday, March 2, 2006, the Tigers have ripped off 55 consecutive conference wins, including the C-USA tourney. No, it’s not the Big East, ACC or even the Mountain West in terms of overall league status.

But 55 victories. Three years. (Whistles) That doesn’t seem right. Even great teams stumble occasionally in conference play.

Unless you’re the Tigers, whose conference mark is 66-1 in the last four seasons, and 129-13 overall.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Thursday’s win against UAB was just the latest in what’s become a ridiculous show of Memphis and also-rans. The Blazers were at home and were a trendy upset pick before the game. Doug Gottlieb and Michael Wilbon both picked UAB to win. Southern Miss coach Larry Eustachy said the Blazers feature a better starting five.

Yet the 71-60 Memphis victory was another example of why the Tigers don’t lose to the Blazers, let alone anyone else in the league: They’re athletic, play defense and have a roster of guys who make plays when needed. Thursday, it wasn’t freshman wunderkind Tyreke Evans, or longtime starters Antonio Anderson or Robert Dozier who were the difference.

It was junior Doneal Mack. His 14 second-half points, including a key 3-pointer, broke the Blazers’ backs. Mack averages just under 10 points a game, yet his teammates weren’t shy about getting him the ball.

"We always have somebody we can count on if anybody else is struggling," Dozier told the Memphis Commercial Appeal. "We don't hesitate to throw him the ball. Any guy who's open and getting his shots and has it going, we're going to get it to him. We're going to find a way.”

Selfless and talented? That’s a dangerous team.

Of course, it also helps to play defense like the Tigers. They’re No. 1 on kenpom.com’s adjusted defensive rankings, ahead of Louisville and UConn, and slightly better on D than last year’s 38-2 squad that reached the national title game. (81.3 points per 100 possessions compared to 83.9 last year.)

Not that the Tigers are invincible. Note the close wins vs. Tulsa and Tennessee, which is probably a function of lower-scoring games.

With Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts gone, they don’t run as much as last year, but excel at ball control and are just as good from 3-point land.

"This is one of those teams that you don't know where it's going to come from,'' coach John Calipari said. "It's crazy. We are trying to do something special. We've been in a lot of tight games.''

When Memphis wins its 60th straight C-USA game during the conference tourney, it’ll pass West Virginia for 2^nd, with only Kentucky’s 64 straight SEC wins from 1945-50 remaining. It’ll also reach at least 30 wins for the fourth straight season, and pass Duke for the most victories during a four-year period.

That’s heady stuff for a group Calipari wasn’t sure about to start the season. Now, the Tigers are making a case for a No. 1 seed and a second-straight Final Four.

“Were we going to be mentally and physically tough enough to compete at the highest level?,” he asked the Commercial Appeal. “I guess we're proving we are.”

No. 1 vs. No. 2, by the (hyped) numbers

Mike Miller — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 05:55:00 GMT

College basketball’s regular season gets tagged as blasé, but even naysayers should be pumped about Saturday.

After all, No. 1 vs. No. 2 just doesn’t happen that often. Top 10 games, sure. But this’ll be the 38^th time since 1949 when the top teams face off in what should be the regular-season’s best game.

In this instance, the SEC’s best team, Tennessee, travels to No. 1 Memphis. No, the game isn’t on Tobacco Road, but hoops in the state of Tennessee shouldn’t take a backseat to anyone this season. (Well, maybe Indiana, with its four ranked teams would have something to say about that.)

Especially when one considers Memphis (26-0) hasn’t lost at home in 47 games and wants to avenge last season’s 76-58 thrashing. It all turns an already fierce rivalry into a monster game. (Want a ticket? Got $10,000?)

Beyond all that hype, there’s plenty more:

Expect defenses to take center stage. It’s the nation’s best defensive team vs. a team that thrives on forcing turnovers.

It’ll be fast. Memphis gets more than 71 possessions a game, Tennessee 73.2.

Joey Dorsey will own the boards. The Vols’ Wayne Chism is good (10.3 OR%, 20.2 DR%), but Memphis’ beast on the inside is among the top 10 in OR% (16.3) and DR% (28.4).

The free-throw line will hardly be free. Tennessee is 302^nd in FT percentage, but Memphis is worse at 338^th (58.8 percent!).

Kenpom.com expects an 81-71 Memphis win. I think it’ll be like 89-85, Memphis. Feels like a game where the Vols can keep it close with outside shooting and balanced scoring, but will fall short in a hostile environment.

More tidbits?

The last time an undefeated No. 1 team played No. 2 this late in the season, top-ranked UNLV beat Arkansas, 112-105, on Feb. 10, 1991 in Fayetteville, Ark.
Before this season, Memphis spent one week at No. 1 in the polls. It lost, 64-56, to Virginia Tech on Jan. 10, 1983.
Tennessee has beaten No. 1 once. Dec. 6, 1969 at South Carolina.
No. 1 has won 19 of the 37 meetings against No. 2, but has lost five of the last 6, including Wisconsin’s 49-48 loss to Ohio State last season.

What's perfection mean for Memphis, UConn?

Mike Miller — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 04:58:00 GMT

One undefeated New England may have lost Sunday, but there’s another still standing. And it’s an awfully familiar unbeaten sight.

The UConn women’s team torched Providence on Saturday, setting up a showdown against Big East rival Rutgers on Tuesday. Rutgers beat the Huskies in the Big East Championship last season and was the conference representative in the Final Four, losing to Tennessee in the title game. Since then, the Huskies (21-0) have torn through the competition, winning all but one game by double-digit margins.

There’s some symmetry that another team from the New England region would be toying with a perfect record, too. Geno Auriemma’s squad was the last D-I college basketball team to finish a season unbeaten, going 39-0 in 2001-02. (The last men’s team? Bob Knight’s 1975-76 Indiana squad.)

This year’s version may be just as good as the two previous undefeated squads (’95 was the other), because of its depth and ability on both ends of the court. The Huskies average more than 80 points a game and allow less than 50.

Of course, Memphis’ men’s team is no slouch either. It just takes me out of the New England theme…

The No. 1 Tigers (21-0) are off to the best start in school history, and despite a lackluster win against UTEP on Saturday, they remain a good bet to enter the NCAA Tournament without a loss. That hasn’t been done since UNLV in 1991.

However, if there’s a weakness in the Memphis machine, it’s the free-throw shooting.

(Memphis’ three-point shooting stinks too. Yet even at 34.0 percent, it’s positively scorching compared to the free-throw shooting, which is dead last among D-I schools on kenpom.com.)

The Tigers missed 20 free throws against UTEP, which has to be a major concern for coach John Calipari. Instead of putting teams away in crunch time, Memphis could very well clang its way out of the record books. No team has ever finished a season 40-0, which Memphis would do with an NCAA title.

As the Patriots’ loss showed, no team is perfect. Memphis or UConn could be knocked off that perfect porch soon, too.

Then again, what’s perfection mean, anyway? John Wooden – who had four undefeated championship teams at UCLA – says his best squad may have been the 29-1 squad of 1967-68. (I maintain few things are as enticing as the thought of the perfect season, yet must admit the crushing expectations that come with it make it tough to actually deliver on that final game.)

If Memphis or UConn do lose a game, but still win the title, it wouldn't diminish their seasons. Just ask the Pats.

Just how good are UNC, Memphis and Kansas?

Mike Miller — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 03:49:00 GMT

These guys are good.

North Carolina, Memphis and Kansas. Three undefeated teams, all loaded with future NBA players and carrying Final Four expectations and title aspirations.

It’s funny, too. They’ve been this good all season.

This was the preseason AP poll.

North Carolina (29) 0-0 1,728
UCLA (24) 0-0 1,710
Memphis (18) 0-0 1,680
Kansas 0-0 1,568

The fifth was Georgetown, which received the only other first-place vote and was the only other team to garner more than 1,500 points. These were supposedly the elite teams.

And after 11 weeks, little has changed. When the rankings come out Monday, those will be the top 5 teams again. UCLA, after taking apart previously unbeaten Washington State, is as good as ever (with Kevin Love, maybe even better than the last two seasons). The Hoyas aren’t as imposing, but a win against Pitt tonight will improve their public perception even more.

But it goes back to those unbeaten teams. Just when will they lose? Ever?

According to kenpom.com, North Carolina (17-0) will be the first. The Heels have a 2.51 percent chance of winning the rest of their games, which makes sense.

The ACC is once again atop the RPI, elevating the Heels’ schedule to a tougher level than Kansas’ or Memphis’. UNC just dismantled N.C. State, but nothing’s guaranteed during a team’s conference schedule. The Heels needed OT to escape at Clemson, and trips to Miami, FSU, Virginia and B.C. remain, not to mention two games against Duke.

Kansas (16-0) has a slightly higher chance of not losing – 13.67 percent. After facing Oklahoma and Missouri this week (Tigers get to play KU at home, never an easy place to play and where I picked the Jayhawks to lose back in December), they don’t face the real meat of their Big 12 schedule until February. (Playing at K-State on Jan. 30 doesn’t count. KU hasn’t lost in Manhattan since 1983.)

A trip to Texas on Feb. 11 is a serious obstacle, as is the March 8 regular-season finale at Texas A&M. But the odds of the Jayhawks rolling into College Station 30-0 is remote.

That brings us to Memphis, which has a 47.3 percent chance of being unbeaten, according to kenpom.com. (Hard to believe it’s that low considering the Tigers are 29-1 in the regular-season against C-USA the last two seasons, but it’s true that conference games are never a gimme AND games against Tennessee and Gonzaga remain. Pomeroy wrote a separate piece on the Tigers’ chances of going undefeated on basketballprospectus.com, where he says there’s a 10 percent chance of a 40-0 season.)

ANYWAY, if these powerhouses continue their great starts, we may have three teams undefeated heading into February. Maybe even two unbeaten teams when March rolls around (which last happened in 2004 when St. Joe’s and Stanford pulled that trick). At that point, the inevitable question will arise: Is a loss before the NCAA Tournament a good thing?

Seth Davis says no, mostly because it helps with it would relive any added pressure that comes with trying to win the NCAA Tournament. (So what if no undefeated team has won the title since 1976.; no 1-loss team has either, and there have been 18 of those.) I side with Pomeroy – forget that. Go for history.

If there’s anything we should learn from other sports and apply here, take a page from the New England Patriots’ perfect run. No one sets out to lose a game, but a shot at making history and being one of the only unbeaten national champions is worth the added “stress” of entering the NCAA Tournament without a loss.

If you can make history, you do it. You don't worry about how stressful it might be.

Memphis' amazing run could end in a title

Mike Miller — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 23:01:00 GMT

In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a big game Saturday between No. 2 Memphis and No. 5 Georgetown. (It’s not even the only Top 10 game. No. 4 Texas plays No. 10 Michigan State in Auburn Hills. Score one for hoops fans.)

Nearly 19,000 people are expected (including 15 NBA scouts, or so) to watch the Tigers and Hoyas face off in what could be a Final Four preview. Memphis is among the nation’s most talented teams, while the Hoyas are consistent and return most of their Final Four team from last season. Both are unbeaten, but neither have turned on the juice yet this season. Yes, I’m saying both should be better by season’s end.

I’m already on record for picking the Hoyas (also my choice to win the whole shebang), but considering Pitt’s upset of Duke on Thursday, my picks ain’t worth much. (Jay Bilas’ also siding with Georgetown; some others have gone with Memphis, though.)

Yet, for all that buildup, I’m avoiding a game preview. You’ve got links for that. And for a detailed matchups breakdown, click here.

I’m more amazed at the run Memphis is likely embarking on, which could result in a title for John Calipari.

The Tigers have put together back-to-back 33-4 seasons. Only 14 teams have racked up more wins in two seasons’ time, and five of them involve those loaded Duke and Kentucky teams from the late ‘90s. If the Tigers reach the Elite Eight for the third straight year, they’ll likely be 34-4, or 100-12 in that span. They get to the Final Four, even more wins.

And even fewer teams have won games in a three-year clip like that. They include Kentucky, 96-98 (104-11); Kentucky, 46-48 (102-8); Montana State, 27-29 (102-11) and Duke, 99-01 (101-11).

Consider for a moment just how many games a team has to play to even approach 100 wins in a three-year span, let along actually do it.

Now, part of that achievement comes from playing in the weak Conference USA (where Memphis is 29-1 in regular-season play that last two seasons, and 6-0 in conference tournaments), but the Tigers also are 196-79 since 2000, which means they were winning at a pretty good clip before C-USA went belly up.

It makes me think this is what Jerry Tarkanian’s UNLV teams were like in the 1980s. The Running Rebs were 271-65 in the 80s. More importantly, Tark’s teams ran, which helped with recruiting (this guy did too) and eventually led to a title where UNLV had more talent on the floor than any other team.

Calipari’s set himself up for the same kind of run and talent influx Tark did. Memphis may not win the Big Dance this season, or next. But eventually, by running, winning and recruiting, he’ll have a team that can.