Beyond the Arc : Duke-Carolina

ACC is Duke vs. UNC -- everyone else stinks?

Mike Miller — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 13:05:00 GMT

So Duke and North Carolina are picked to finish atop the ACC. This is new?

Seems like the Tar Heels and Blue Devils are always picked to rule the roost, and usually do. Since 1954, one of those two has either won or tied for the ACC title 44 times.

But this is the first time in the 41 years of the conference’s preseason day that they’re officially co-favorites.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty images

It's Coach K vs. Roy Williams, again.

(Duke garnered more first-place votes, but UNC tied them with 545 overall points. And via ACC Now, this is the 19th time North Carolina has been picked to finish first. The Tar Heels won the league in 11 of the first 18 times they were picked. Duke has been picked to finish first 12 times before, winning in seven of those years.)

Huh. So this means the ACC media guys can’t settle on which team’s gonna be better, either.

The offseason debate of Duke vs. North Carolina – the Devils return more players, but only two of ‘em are guards, while the national champion Heels lost four starters – was a minor point among hopheads, mostly because both teams were still going to be really good. (Seriously. Both are in our Top 10.)

But this could be an issue for the rest of the ACC. In the media’s eyes, everyone else is a loooong way back.

From ACC now:

The 144-point gap between Duke and North Carolina and third selection Clemson is the largest gap between any spots in the poll. Clemson-Georgia Tech (third-fourth, 122 points) and Boston College-Miami (eighth-ninth, 116 points) are the other demarcation points.

OK, the Tigers have a chance, but everyone else is way, way back of the top two. Georgia Tech is slightly better than Maryland, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Boston College. Miami, Virginia and N.C. State are bottom dwellers.

And this is exactly how it’s gonna play out, right? Right.

(Shakes head, noting heavy sarcasm to avoid angry comments below.)

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Duke-UNC rivalry must apply to everything

Mike Miller — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 22:32:00 GMT

It is funny to see the Duke-North Carolina rivalry spill over into other areas. Take recruiting.

Harrison Barnes, the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2010, had a home visit Monday night from Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, which was supposed to be the final in-home visit of the contact period allowed by the NCAA.

Except UNC coach Roy Williams showed up a couple hours later.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty

Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams fight for wins, titles, recruits...

Vance Downs, Barnes’ coach at Ames (Iowa) High, wasn’t there, but told the Raleigh News & Observer “that they were both there … and it was a busy night," Downs said.

This wasn’t a case of Williams waiting around until Coach K left. He had to schedule a visit and have the family approve it. It’s the timing that’s key.

Naturally, fans from both sides are trying to figure out which move gives them the better chance at Barnes. From Jim Young at ACCSports.com:

If you’re an optimistic Duke fan you see this as evidence that Roy Williams is throwing a last-second Hail Mary pass. UNC pulled out all the stops during Barnes’ official visit to Chapel Hill but couldn’t secure a commitment. Barnes is still scheduled to make an official visit to Duke and Williams won’t be able to crash that party. So squeezing a few more hours of face time with Barnes is evidence that Williams doesn’t think his recruiting pitch has had its desired effect yet.

If you’re an optimistic UNC fan you see this as further proof that Roy Williams is the best closer in the recruiting business. By surprising the recruiting world and landing the last in-home visit time with Barnes, Williams has shown everyone that Barnes to Duke is not the “lock” that so many thought a few months before. Considering that Barnes had to have approved such a last-minute visit, it’s clear that he’s still very receptive to the UNC recruiting pitch. In fact, Oettinger’s source says that the UNC coaches feel they are in very good standing with Barnes’ mother, Shirley.

Ah, the hand wringing that must be going on in the Chapel Hill-Durham area right now.

You know what be even funnier than all of this? If Barnes picks Kansas, the other school he reportedly has a “high interest” in. He’s supposed to make a decision before Nov. 16.

(H/T: The Dagger, Tar Heel Fan)

And now, the best part of sports: The rant

Mike Miller — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:59:00 GMT

Fridays don’t always need to be relaxing. Sure, the weekend’s just hours away, but why not get fired up for that weekend?

Why not indulge in a rant? OK, it’s not mine. But it’s damn fine rant.

A co-worker (and North Carolina grad) sent me this link to Tar Heel Fan yesterday (with a mini-rant of his own, mostly centering on graduation rates). And it’s a great example of how the blogosphere can take apart the MSM with a little insight and a lot of passion.

Did I mention it’s about how Duke and Coach K are treated compared to the rest of the hoops world? Take it away, THF.

New Media Meme: Duke is Back! Duke is Back!

Despite the fact their situation has only slightly improved and the meme hinges on not yet realized commitments from two high school players..

Jeff Goodman earlier this week and now Gary Parrish have written online projecting a return to Final Fours and national title contention if the Blue Devils land Harrison Barnes and Kylie Irving. Needless to say both declarations strike me as somewhat premature. (Click the links to read the full articles.)

Holy cart before the horse Batman! Right now no one knows what Barnes is going to do. Based on what I have read is Barnes is not a sure thing for Duke and calling them a leader for his services might be a tad strong. Duke has had the longest relationship with Barnes and that does factor in heavily where recruiting is concerned. However, Roy has made a strong play for the #1 player in 2010 and the speculation is UNC is as much a player for Barnes as Duke is at this point.

However, the next five grafs take a life of their own. THF touches on why Krzyzewski’s recruiting methods have fallen (and the quality of players, as a result), why UNC has owned the rivalry recently and a racial tinge to the writer’s whole argument.

It’s good stuff, and raises fair points about the articles in question. But mostly, it’s a rant – backed up by facts and sound reasoning – and a good one. And if you ask me, those are the best parts of sports.

Run with the Tar Heels at your own risk

Mike Miller — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 03:03:00 GMT

If it wasn’t clear before, it is now. Run with North Carolina at your own risk. Just ask Duke.

We’d already seen the Heels’ awesome offense at work in wins against Michigan State and Notre Dame earlier this season. A week ago, they dropped 108 on Maryland. And even when UNC loses, it still racks up the points.

But this 101-87 road win against Duke – an exceedingly efficient defensive team – was about as good as it gets.

Consider UNC’s performance:

On 81 possessions, the Heels averaged 1.236 points per possession against the best defense it’s faced this year. That’s higher than their season average of 1.219.
The Devils hadn’t given up more than 81 points all season. The Heels blew by that with more than six minutes remaining.
Carolina’s FG% was 59.7. Duke usually holds opponents to 44.1.

Gerry Broome/AP

Ty Lawson

UNC did most of its damage during the second half, when it outscored Duke 57-35. This was after the Devils put on a shot of their own, ripping off 52 first-half points. At one point, they hit 13-of-18 shots. But early in the second half, the Heels started running – scoring in 10- and 12-point bunches over 3 minute spans – and Duke couldn’t keep up.

“In the second half, we kind of had the mindset that we were going to outscore them,” Duke’s Kyle Singler said afterward. “But you’re not going to outscore Carolina.”

Again, this wasn’t College of Charleston or UNC Asheville. This was Duke, playing at home, and playing well. It was an effective reminder that no, the Heels don’t have Marcus Ginyard, but they’re still as good as anyone. (Note to self: Remember this when filling out bracket.)

And that’s because of Ty Lawson.

The Heels’ junior ~~blur~~ point guard ran by the Devils for 21 of his game-high 25 points in the second half. Fourteen of those points were lay-ups that came from beating guys off the dribble or in transition. It didn’t matter if it was Nolan Smith, Greg Paulus or a wall of Devil defenders, Lawson (1.66 PPWS) spread the floor with his speed and finished when it mattered.

For Carolina to reach Detroit, it’ll need more of that from Lawson, much like Derrick Rose did for Memphis last season. Few things disrupt a defense like a quick point guard who can beat defenders off the dribble. Lawson opens up scoring chances for Wayne Ellington and allows Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson to hang around the basket for quick buckets.

This doesn’t mean UNC is going to reclaim the “unbeatable” tag. Plenty of ACC traps remain, starting with Sunday’s road game at Miami, and a regular-season finale against Duke, which remains a Final Four worthy team, despite this mini-skid.

But as long as long as the Heels keep up their go-go attitude, they’re going to be tough to slow down, let alone stop.

Duke-Carolina, and the March implications

Mike Miller — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 21:46:00 GMT

The pregame hype for Duke-North Carolina is inescapable.

If you’ve watched a college hoops game on ESPN in the last week, you know that sport’s greatest rivalry has its first game this season on Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET. OK, maybe the showdown itself doesn’t always live up to that hype, but it’s still No. 3 vs. No. 6, Hard to overlook a game like that.

When North Carolina (21-2) travels the 9 miles to Cameron Indoor Stadium to play longtime rival Duke (20-3), it’s a matchup of two of the game’s premier programs who also happen to be among the six or so serious contenders for the national title. It’s good enough to prompt N.C. state Senator Eddie Goodall to put up his seat for sale on eBay. (Hold on, he’s not going all Blagojevich on us…)

There’s usually plenty of news (this year, it revolves around Greg Paulus starting over Nolan Smith), features (players sharing their fondest memories as preps) and picks to win (Seth Davis likes UNC).

But the bigger question is if Wednesday’s game gives us any indication about which team will fare better in March.

The short answer? No.

The Durham Herald-Sun notes that the last four times either school won an NCAA title, the team that lost the first game went on to win the Big Dance. That covers ’92, ’93, ’01 and ’05 – and in each case, the team that won the second game fared better in the NCAAs.

In fact, since 1989, the team that won the second game advanced further in the NCAA tournament 13 times. It’s best to be better later.

Year	1st game	2nd game	ACC champ	Better in NCAAs
2008	Duke	UNC	UNC	UNC (Final Four)
2007	UNC	UNC	UNC/Va.	UNC (Elite 8)
2006	Duke	UNC	Duke	Duke (Sweet 16)
2005	Duke	UNC	UNC	UNC (champions)
2004	Duke	Duke	Duke	Duke (Final Four)
2003	Duke	UNC	Wake Forest	Duke (Elite 8)
2002	Duke	Duke	Maryland	Duke (Sweet 16)
2001	UNC	Duke	Duke/UNC	Duke (champs)
2000	Duke	Duke	Duke	UNC (Final Four)
1999	Duke	Duke	Duke	Duke (finals)
1998	UNC	Duke	Duke	UNC (Final Four)
1997	Duke	UNC	Duke	UNC (Final Four)
1996	UNC	UNC	G.T.	UNC (2nd round)
1995	UNC	UNC	UNC	UNC (Final Four)
1994	UNC	UNC	Duke	Duke (finals)
1993	Duke	UNC	UNC	UNC (champions)
1992	UNC	Duke	Duke	Duke (champions)
1991	Duke	Duke	Duke	Duke (champions)
1990	UNC	UNC	Clemson	Duke (finals)
1989	UNC	Duke	NC State	Duke (finals)

(An amazing aspect of these results? Either Duke or Carolina was in the Final Four 15 times since ’89.)

Does that mean the team that wins first peaked too early? Did the loser simply solve its issues? Tough to say.

"Historically, this game has helped both programs, win or lose, because you've been tested," Mike Krzyzewski told the Herald-Sun. "I think that's the most important thing. Over the years, Duke and Carolina have made each other better -- there's no question about it. … It's a good game to be in, a heck of a game to be in. Not many programs in the United States get a chance to play this level of game; we get to play it twice."

In the last 10 meetings, Duke usually wins the first game. The Devils have won six of the last seven initial matchups, and eight of the last 10. Carolina’s been better the second time around, winning five of the last 6 second meetings. (Duke swept the regular-season series three times between 1999 and 2002.)

Are we going to see more of the same this time around?

Our hoops expert, Ken Davis, says no. As good as Duke has been this season, he’s picking Carolina on Wednesday, which will eventually propel the Heels to the regular-season crown. But March? Well, that’s a different story.

Lots on the line for Duke vs. North Carolina

Mike Miller — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 00:42:00 GMT

It’s funny. The last Duke-North Carolina game resulted in the No. 2 Devils turning in an impressive 89-78 road win against the No. 3 Heels. A month later, UNC hasn’t lost since and is ranked No. 1. Duke lost back-to-back games and is now ranked sixth.

As a result, Saturday’s showdown includes some crucial details.

The winner claims the ACC title outright and the top seed in the conference tourney. (The first time since ’91 the finale has that kind of weight.)
A No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament also awaits the winner. Carolina hasn’t beaten a top 15 opponent all season and just three victories against the RPI top 25. But, at 28-2, it would be tough to deny the Heels a top seed with a victory. Duke (26-3) owns wins against four RPI top 25 teams (UNC, Wisconsin, Marquette and Miami) and could make a No. 1 argument even with a loss.

To be clear: Being a top seed doesn’t guarantee Big Dance success, but it’s a big key. Top seeds have won 13 of 23 national titles since the tournament expanded in 1985 and are 309-79; two seeds have won just four titles and just once since ’99, and are 224-88. In the last five years, compare their 65-18 and 50-19 records. That No. 1 seed is an excellent indicator of how a team will fare in the NCAA tourney.

(Vegas sidenote: It’s interesting that neither UNC or Duke are the odds-on favorite for the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is 9-2, with Carolina right behind at 5-1. Duke’s odds to win are 10-1, behind Kansas, Memphis and Tennessee.)

Heels point guard Ty Lawson missed the first meeting and is still nursing a left ankle sprain. How he handles Duke’s pressuring man-to-man defense will be an indication of his NCAA Tournament health and how UNC’s offense will function.
There’s the whole “misquoted” mess, too, but that’s mostly for us media types to chatter and fret about. Don’t hate us, it’s just the way we’re built.
And, to put the game in perspective, there’s this. There will be a moment of silence before the game for Eve Marie Carson.
If all that’s not enough, you could always watch ESPNU starting early Saturday morning. Five replays of previous Duke-UNC games would do it.

OK, that was a lot of stuff. Most importantly, who wins?

Kenpom.com predicts a 91-85 Duke win, with 69 percent certainty. Seth Davis likes UNC, 80-76. Jay Bilas is picking the Devils. Not sure if this is a good idea, but I’ll side with Davis.

The Devils are at home, but I thought they played their best game last month in Chapel Hill. Wayne Ellington will hit his perimeter shots and the Devils won’t hit theirs, or at least as proficiently as they did in their Feb. win.

Essentially, it comes down to this: The team that wins Saturday is more likely to make a run at the NCAA crown. Carolina's balance and Tyler Hansbrough's relentless style of play (SI cover jinx be dammed) makes it a better bet to win in March and on Saturday as well.

Coach K, Williams stoke Duke-UNC fire

Mike Miller — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 19:05:00 GMT

The next Duke-North Carolina game isn’t until March 8. But there is plenty of fodder for hype in the meantime. And it’s all coach created.

If you missed Roy Williams’ jab at Mike Krzyzewki – a retort to a comment from Coach K about Carolina’s injuries – listen to the audio here. The best quote? Williams asking an unspecified person to “coach their own damn team, I’ll coach my team.” That person being Krzyzewski.

All of this has been building for a while, but came to a head on Sunday and Monday.

Krzyzewski, whose Duke team has flown under the radar most of the season (or been outright dismissed) wants more attention paid to the Devils’ 22-2 season, or at least compared to their Tobacco Road counterparts. UNC (24-2) entered the season as one of the heavy title favorites, but injuries have taken some of the shine off the Heels, which has resulted in more coverage.

So was it a comment during Williams’ radio show last week (comparing Duke’s eight McDonald’s All-Americans to the Heels’ three) or the Devils’ surprising loss to Wake Forest on Sunday that nudged Krzyzewski into his subtle jab at the Heels and their injury situation? Probably both.

From the AP: Noting that freshman Nolan Smith had been playing through a knee injury for a few weeks, Krzyzewski added, “unlike other schools we don’t release our injuries,” according to the Web site for radio station WRBZ-AM in Raleigh.

The next day, Williams said on his weekly radio show: “Regardless of what somebody else says about they have injuries too, which is a bunch of bunk, so I don’t give a crap what somebody else says, but coach their own damn team, I’ll coach my team — in case anybody has heard some statements about that.”

If all seems like two men simply sniping at each other for perceived slights, that’s exactly what it is.

But this is Carolina-Duke. Everything is magnified. That enmity is why these two schools remain the nation’s premier rivalry. It’s why posts like this and this are so fun to read and why we have entire features built around the two.

Is it all a little silly? Well, maybe. But if it makes for a fun few weeks before March 8, and makes the rematch an even better game, hoops fans should thank both coaches for extra push.

Duke beats Carolina, but doubts linger

Mike Miller — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 02:50:00 GMT

Duke looked every bit like a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in an 89-78 road victory against North Carolina on Wednesday.

The Blue Devils (20-1) hit 13-of-29 three-pointers, made five fewer turnovers in a raucous Dean Dome and their defense hounded UNC’s Wayne Ellington (16.2 ppg) and Danny Green (12.1 ppg) into a nightmarish shooting night. Combined, they were 4-of-24 from the field for 11 points. Without point guard Ty Lawson, UNC’s offense never got on track despite 28 points from Tyler Hansbrough.

In short, Duke looked like Duke. And Duke’s been a No. 1 seed eight of the last 10 seasons. A game like that will go a long way to making it nine of 11.

But that brushes over the nagging thought from Wednesday’s game: If Duke played that great and UNC only lost by 11 points, does that mean Duke’s hit its ceiling?

That is, if the Devils play UNC – or another team with Carolina’s depth and balance, like Memphis, Kansas, UCLA or Georgetown –in the NCAA Tournament, what are the odds they make 13 threes? Or benefit by playing an injured or struggling team?

After all, it seems strange to think that Duke is a team without room for error when March rolls around because that kind of hot shooting doesn’t last.

(Consider a team like Tennessee, which wore down perimeter-oriented Florida on Tuesday. The Vols are long, athletic and relentless on the perimeter. As good as Duke is, it’s hard to believe they’d get the same looks beyond the arc.)

That probably comes off as Duke bashing, but there’s no other way to put it. Duke looked great against Carolina (21-2). It made plays when needed, hit shots and free throws down the stretch and basically owned Carolina. That’s a helluva win. The Devils were aggressive and energetic and it showed in the final score. That’s something to be proud of and relish until the rematch in Cameron.

“They’re pretty special right now,” Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski said afterward. “We know who we are. We’re a very unconventional team. We’re not a strong physical team, but we are strong team emotionally, a real together group.

“You have to hope you don’t get killed by a team for a stretch by their strength. You have to find a way and because we have versatile players we’ve been able to do that so far.”

Coach K knows what he has. He’s set up a Phoenix Suns-like offense that relies on dribble penetration and kick outs for threes (pretty much what Duke’s done for years), making his squad deadly when it hits those shots.

Yet, Duke surely knows it didn’t get Carolina’s best game.

“It was just one of those nights,” Ellington said. “We couldn’t get the ball to fall.”

Without Lawson, UNC struggled in transition and had trouble getting players like Green and Ellington open looks. Credit goes to Duke’s defense, but Lawson’s absence was apparent throughout. Would he be worth 11 points? Almost certainly.

This isn’t to say Carolina will win in Durham if Lawson’s healthy. The Heels will have to improve that perimeter defense – like Duke’s gonna stop shooting – and ensure Green and Ellington don’t start slow. And even all that may not be enough.

But it’s enough to sew doubt in my mind about Duke. In March, being one-dimensional is just too risky.

Carolina-Duke live blog

Mike Miller — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 21:31:00 GMT

Return to this space at 8:50 p.m.ET. I’ll be doing a live blog of the Duke-UNC game. I'm trying something a little different than a normal post, which will allow readers to post comments in-between my in-game thoughts. ~~Anyway, more details to come then.~~

Duke-UNC remains must-see TV, but other rivalries...

Mike Miller — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 01:57:00 GMT

It’s not as if Duke-North Carolina needs any extra hype. The two teams enter Wednesday’s game as No. 2 and No. 3 in the rankings, 3 and 4 in the RPI and 4 and 7 in kenpom.com’s ratings. Duke (19-1) hasn’t lost since Dec. 20. The Heels (21-1) won their first 18 games.

UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough is the leading candidate for Player of the Year, while only Kansas and Memphis have a deeper bench than Duke (maybe UConn and Tennessee, too).

That alone would make it a monster matchup. Throw in the history between the two schools, and it’s MEGA.

But, because it’s Carolina-Duke, we get one more angle, involving Duke’s Gerald Henderson and Hansbrough’s nose.

To be honest, I’d nearly forgotten about that bloody play from last March, when Henderson's right arm struck the All-American in the nose, sending him crumpling to the floor. As a result, a brawl had to be averted, Henderson was ejected and Hansbrough wore a protective mask for the ACC Tournament and part of the Big Dance.

Now, with Henderson heading back to the Smith Center for the first time since that foul, I expect the game to be a little more heated than normal. But just a little. After all, it’s Duke-UNC. It’s always gonna be big.

About a week ago, my buddy Ben (die-hard Nebraska and Big 12 guy) and I were talking about Kansas and what kind of challenges the Jayhawks would have during conference play. Texas, for sure. Maybe A&M, maybe Baylor and maybe K-State (better than either of us thought). But we didn’t consider Missouri, which makes me a little sad. Kansas-Missouri used to be one of THE rivalries that the networks had to broadcast and the national media swarmed upon. Now, it’s just another game, with heightened local implications.

And without a major media market to ramp up the interest, Ben and I bemoaned the demise of KU-Mizzou as a rivalry. Frankly, I’m wondering if all the college hoops rivalries are going the same way.

Traditional ones like KU-Mizzou, Purdue-Indiana and Cincinnati-Xavier have lost national interest, mostly because one team dropped off as a hoops power. Even Kentucky-Louisville – two teams that have remained hoops powers – doesn’t have the spark it used to nationally. To be clear, I think the localized interest is great -- and maybe even better in some ways because of how intense it can get -- but it’s hard to get non-hoops diehards or non-local fans to care about what can be essentially two college towns going for bragging rights. (Maybe it’s the timing. Playing after the NFL season is key has always been key to attract casual fans.)

Only North Carolina-Duke remains the must-see rivalry. This is because of two things: TV and the traditional excellence of both teams. Duke and Carolina are perennial title contenders with huge national fan bases. They churn out NBA players and their coaches are recognized as two of the game’s best.

Still, the cynic in me wonders if even Carolina-Duke will always stand the test of time. When Coach K leaves, will Duke always be relevant? When Roy Williams retires, will Carolina endure another downswing? And if either happen, will ESPN still build a “Rivalry Week” schedule around their game? After all, Army-Navy football used to be the Duke-Carolina college football equivalent.

Maybe I’m being too pessimistic. Maybe the new rivalries – UCLA-USC, Florida-Tennessee, Marquette-Louisville, Texas-Texas A&M – will flourish. Maybe the traditional ones will be revived (Purdue-Indiana, with their combined records of 36-8 would be a good place to start).

Maybe both will happen. Then Ben and I can relive the good old days.