Beyond the Arc : Conference tournaments

50 non-conference games you can't miss

Mike Miller — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 01:24:00 GMT

Does anyone really need a reason to watch college hoops? I suppose there could be conflicting interest occasionally, but I’m here to correct that: Non-conference games you can’t miss.

Essentially, there’s a game to watch starting mid-November. So just print this page and cross ‘em off as they come along. I’m user-friendly that way.

Pay special attention to Nov. 27, Dec. 6 and Dec. 22. You won't be able to get up from the couch those days.

Nov. 9: Florida International at North Carolina (Coaches vs. Cancer). Sure, the defending champs may turn Isiah Thomas’ college coaching debut into a laugher, but why miss one of the season’s earliest game? FIU made noise about this matchup last month, but that didn’t last.

Eric Gay/AP

UNC's Deon Thompson and Michigan State's Draymond Green battle for a rebound in the 2009 NCAA Championship. They'll do it again in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

Nov. 13: Bradley at BYU. The MVC-MWC Challenge Series kicks off with a dandy. The Braves could be the Mo Valley’s top team, while the Cougars are tough to beat at home. (Few teams get more friendly home calls.)

Nov. 17: Hall of Fame Showcase. Courtside seats for this doubleheader were going for more than $200. Makes sense when you can watch Arkansas vs. Louisville and Memphis vs. Kansas in one evening.

Nov. 19: Cal vs. Syracuse, UNC vs. Ohio State (Coaches vs. Cancer semifinals). The Bears are the Pac-10’s best team, while the Buckeyes feature one of the game’s elite players in Evan Turner. Catch the next day’s title game, too.

Nov. 19: Puerto-Rico Tip-Off. Dayton vs. Georgia opens the tourney and is possibly the best game. And the winner playing Villanova the next night also is nice.

Nov. 21: Philly Hoops Classic. Siena at Temple. Saints could the mid-major du jour this season, and the Owls gets an up-close look.

Nov. 23: Paradise Jam Championship. Keeping my fingers crossed to see Tennessee play Purdue.

Nov. 24: CBE Classic title game: I think it’ll be Pitt vs. Texas, which might be jumping the gun a bit with Pitt losing Jermaine Dixon for two months, but the Panthers rarely lose in Nov. and Dec.

Nov. 26: Old Spice Classic opening games. Michigan vs. Creighton and Marquette vs. Xavier just screams mid-majors pulling off the upsets.

Nov. 27: NIT Season Tip-Off title game. Probably Duke vs. UConn. ‘Nuff said.

Nov. 27: Legends Classic semifinal. Michigan State vs. Florida. Sometimes I hate it when tournaments specify semifinals. This isn’t one of them.

Nov. 27 & 28: Las Vegas Invite. Four quality teams. Illinois vs. Utah and Bradley vs. Oklahoma State. Watch the semis, and don’t miss Friday’s games.

Nov. 29: 76 Classic title game. With Texas A&M, Clemson, West Virginia, UCLA, Butler and Minnesota involved, it’ll be worth watching who emerges.

Dec. 1: Big Ten/ACC Challenge: Michigan State at UNC, Wake Forest at Purdue. If the Big Ten is ever gonna win one of these things, it has to win the marquee games.

Dec. 2: Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Duke at Wisconsin, Florida State at Ohio State. Same story, different day.

Dec. 5: North Carolina at Kentucky. The defending champs travel to Rupp to face John Calipari’s fab freshmen. Frankly, it should and could be the best game of the non-conference slate.

Dec. 6: Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series. Kansas at UCLA, Arizona at Oklahoma. The two best games of the series on the same day.

Dec. 6: BB&T Classic. Maryland vs. Villanova in Washington D.C. Because I want to see Greivis Vasquez against the Wildcats’ array of guards.

Dec. 8: Jimmy V Classic. Butler vs. Georgetown, Indiana vs. Pittsburgh. I’ll be interested to see how far Tom Crean’s come in his Hoosier rebuilding project, but Bulldogs vs. Hoyas is the better game.

Dec. 9: SEC/Big East Invitational (in NYC): UConn vs. Kentucky. Jim Calhoun and John Calipari aren’t friends, to say the least. Their teams can fight it out.

Dec. 10: SEC/Big East Invitational (in Tampa, Fla.). Florida vs. Syracuse. The Orange lost a heap from last year’s squad, but don’t sleep on Jim Boeheim’s team.

Dec. 11: Sun Belt Classic. Vandy vs. Western Kentucky. Can the Hilltoppers pull off their usual March Madness in December?

Dec. 12: Ohio State at Butler. Gordon Hayward shows Thad Matta’s team just how good a mid-major can be. Wait, Siena did that last March…

Dec. 12: Siena vs. Northern Iowa. Speaking of the Saints, they face one of the MVC's best teams in Cedar Rapids.

Dec. 13: Cincinnati at Xavier. Never miss the crosstown throwdown. It should be a law.

Dec. 19: Creighton at New Mexico. The Pit ain’t an easy place to play. But that won’t deter the Blue Jays.

Dec. 19: North Carolina vs. Texas (At Cowboys Stadium). Two Final Four contenders playing in what could eventually be a Final Four venue. Love it.

Dec. 19: Duke vs. Gonzaga (at MSG). This could be the Devils’ first loss of the season.

Dec. 19: Xavier at Butler. The winner wins unofficial title of best mid-major. (Not that either wants to be called that.)

Dec. 22: Michigan State at Texas. Spartans and ‘Horns have killed non-conference skeds. It’s just another treat for us fans.

Dec. 22: Cal at Kansas. The Pac-10’s best travels to the Big 12’s best. Don’t blink or you’ll miss Jerome Randle.

Dec. 22: Las Vegas Classic. Nebraska vs. Tulsa, BYU vs. Nevada. The ‘Cane should give the Huskers fits, while the Cougars and Wolf Pack should go down to wire.

Dec. 23: Illinois vs. Missouri (in St. Louis).This matchup has been one of the best the last few years.

Dec. 31: Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga (in Seattle). Trying to decide if this is how I’ll ring in the New Year.

Jan. 1: West Virginia at Purdue. Forget the college football games. Both Boilermakers and Mountaineers have Final Four aspirations.

Jan. 2: Louisville at Kentucky. This game lost some luster the last few years, but John Calipari’s arrival ends that. It’s time for this rivalry to resume its place alongside Duke-UNC and Cincinnait-Xavier in terms of sheer entertainment.

Jan. 10: Kansas at Tennessee. The Jayhawks dismantled the Vols last season in Lawrence. Will a road test be any different?

Jan. 23: Texas at UConn. Neither team really needs a test like this in this middle of conference play, but hey, I’m all for it.

Feb. 6: Gonzaga at Memphis. New rosters, no Calipari, but still a classic non-conference set-up.

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One bubble pops, and a big-time scorer gets in

Mike Miller — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 13:02:00 GMT

Davidson’s NCAA tournament hopes – along with every other bubble team -- took a hit Tuesday when Cleveland State stunned No. 16 Butler in the Horizon League championship game.

The Vikings’ first Big Dance berth since 1986 -- when they upset No. 3 seed Indiana and St. Joe’s for a spot in the Sweet 16 – came via a flurry of 3-pointers and timely defense, especially when Butler threw away the ball underneath the Vikings’ basket in the final minute.

It was one of those finishes where Butler looked frazzled and Cleveland State was unfazed, much like an upset that opens the NCAA tournament. Hey, time to root for the underdog, right?

“It feels so good. I’ve waited four years, five years, it’s so amazing, just to get this championship,” said Cleveland State point guard Cedric Jackson. “It means the world to me. This team has stuck together day in and day out.”

I guess this shouldn’t be too surprising. Jackson’s the guy who hit a 60-foot bomb to upend Syracuse back in December. It is March, after all.

As for the Stephen Curry lament, it eased a little bit. Who needs Curry when you can watch a guy capable of scoring 60 points in a game? (Nevermind that his odds of breaking 60 in the tourney are as good as DePaul winning the Big East).

Ben Woodside – Mr. 60 – hit the game winner against Oakland (Mich.) in the Summit League title game, sending the Bison to the NCAA tournament in their first season as a D-I school. They’re the first school to pull off that feat since 1972.

Woodside’s one of four four-year starters on ND State, which spent the previous four years finalizing its standing with the NCAA to be a D-I program. Imagine what this feels like for those seniors, Woodside, Brett Winkelman, Mike Nelson and Lucas Moormann. Did Hollywood write this ending?

On tap tonight
Two more automatic bids will be awarded to the winners of the Northeast Championship (No. 1 Robert Morris vs. No. 2 Mount Saint Mary’s) and Big Sky Championship (No. 2 Portland State vs. No. 6 Montana State).

The Big 12, Pac-10, C-USA, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Big West and Southwestern Athletic all begin their tournaments today, while the second round of the Big East gets underway right … about … now. Nice batch of games, too. (Times ET)

Providence vs. DePaul, Noon
Marquette vs. St. John’s, 2:30 p.m.
West Virginia vs. Notre Dame, 7 p.m.
Syracuse vs. Seton Hall, 9:30 p.m.

If DePaul pulls off another miracle, the Friars’ NCAA hopes are toast. And it’ll be interesting to see how Marquette plays against St. John’s. The Eagles haven’t been the same since losing Dominic James to an injury – though their schedule has been brutal.

Happy watching.

Conference tourney primer, and a rant

Mike Miller — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 20:37:00 GMT

The Madness is here.

Tuesday kicked off 13 glorious days of college basketball tournaments (click here for a complete schedule). Nearly 300 teams are vying for 31 automatic bids to the NCAA tournament awarded to conference tourneys champions. (That includes the Ivy League, which doesn’t hold a tourney, but gives its bid to the regular-season champ).

Those who don’t win place their fate with the seeding committee on Selection Sunday when the field of 65 is announced at roughly 6 p.m. ET. Most know these tourneys are their only shot at going dancing.

Chuck Burton/AP

Stephen Curry

But before I get into the primer for conference tournaments, let’s turn to Kyle Whelliston of the Mid-majority, the man who spends his year watching teams from those (mostly) one-bid leagues. His daily essays are required reading for any fan, especially this time of year.

Today’s subject: How many mid-major teams will earn at-large bids?

His answer: Who cares? His primary concern is with the 23 automatic bids reserved for mid-major teams, and how well those teams will perform in the NCAA tournament. That’s it, end of story.

As always, it’s an impassioned, well-written essay, but just reeks of bitterness toward the NCAA tournament. The guy doesn’t care for at-large bids.

League tourneys not only determine who gets to hang a banner, storm the floor and grab that golden ticket, they represent the same exact elimination-style test that awaits at the Biggest Dance of all. And as I say every year, if you don't win your conference tournament, you don't deserve to go to the NCAA's.

That’s a bit harsh given that teams have played an entire conference slate (anywhere from 16 to 20 games) just to earn a seed for the conference tournament, which then determines if you’re going dancin’. Should the regular season be discounted just because you had a bad tourney game?

After all, the NCAA tournament tries to be inclusionary, which isn’t easy when there are just 65 spots for more than 330 D-I teams. About 20 percent of schools have a chance at winning it all. But Whelliston would prefer the NCAA went back to the days of a 25-team tournament when only conference tournament winners were involved.

The NCAA went off the gold standard three decades ago, and the Division I market is as random and chaotic as that of the dollar.

OK, fine. But it’s never been a tournament of champions.

The thing started as an invitation tourney, no title necessary. The first 12 years consisted of at-large bids (Indiana finished 2^nd in the Big Ten when it won the NCAA trophy in 1940). Even when conference tournament winners automatically qualified starting in 1951, anywhere from 6-12 at-large bids also were awarded because there were so many independent teams floating around – Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh, to name a few.

At-large teams won three times (San Francisco in ’55, Loyola in ’63 and Texas Western in ’66) before 1975, the first year multiple teams from one conference were allowed. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, it’s been won 11 times by schools that didn’t win the conference tournament.

The expansion isn’t perfect. BCS schools receive a disproportionate number of at-large bids. A sub.-500 record isn’t the end if you’re in the Big East or ACC, but Utah State’s 13-2 WAC record may not be enough if the Aggies don’t win the conference tournament crown.

Is it fair? Probably not. If Utah State or Davidson or Siena don’t make it to the Dance, I’d be pissed if I were them. But without expansion, they’d never even have that chance. Give ‘em a chance, I say.

Still, I agree with Whelliston’s central point: Mid-majors winning games in the NCAA tournament is the most important thing when it comes to weighing how successful mid-majors were in a given season.

So what if George Mason didn’t win the Colonial League tournament OR the regular-season title in 2006? Isn’t it far more important that the Patriots reached the Final Four? So what if Davidson completed a perfect 2007-08 campaign in the Southern Conference. Their run to the Elite Eight is their lasting mark.

And who will make this year’s big run? The next few days will give us a good indication.

Start with these mid-major gunslingers. Only one or two will be dancing, so watch ‘em while you can.

As for conference primers, I’ll post a few choices. The first is from ESPN’s Pat Forde, who offers quickie scouting reports on the 14 mid-major and low-major conference tourneys starting up. I’m rooting for Eric Maynor and Ben Woodside to go dancin’.

If you have 15-25 minutes handy, I strongly recommend this Championship Week primer from Mike Rutherford over at CardChronicle.com. He covers just about every conceivable topic, from six squads bubble teams should cheer for to 20 players to watch and the crappy tournaments to avoid. Great stuff.

Or, if you'd like to go conference-by-conference, check out Rush the Court. They've been doing wrap ups of every league and previewing their tournaments. Previews for the Sun Belt, Patriot League, Missouri Valley, Horizon League and Ohio Valley are already up.

1 seeds are UCLA, Memphis, Carolina and ...

Mike Miller — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:44:00 GMT

Tough break Tennessee. You were this close to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Entering Saturday, every projection (NBC, ESPN, SI, CBS, Fox, bracketography, you name it) had UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina and Tennessee as No. 1 seeds. And, since it’s a “what have you done for me lately” kind of world, the Vols’ loss to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament semifinals likely altered the seeding world. (Note: All records are vs. D-I schools; that's what the committee looks at.)

Is it fair that Tennessee (28-4, atop the RPI for weeks), with its 11 wins against RPI top 50, including victories against Memphis, Xavier, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Vandy, among others, should suffer as such? Probably not. But the Vols are probably headed to a No. 2 seed.

In all likelihood, it just means the NCAA Tournament seeding committee can settle on their top teams Saturday night. Here’s how (RPI numbers ~~will be~~ are updated through Sunday).

UCLA’s sweep of the Pac-10 regular-season and conference tournament titles cemented it as a 1 seed. Its win against Stanford was its 6^th against the RPI top 25 and 11^th against the RPI top 50. No matter how close the Bruins’ wins are, the overall record (30-3, RPI 4) is about as impressive as it gets.

Memphis pulled off the sweep for the third-straight season by pummeling Tulsa. The Tigers (33-1, RPI 3) didn’t run through the same caliber of league, but it’s impossible to overlook their non-conference wins against UConn, Georgetown, Oklahoma, Gonzaga and Arizona. Consider them the third No. 1 seed overall.

And, regardless of what happens in the ACC Tournament final, North Carolina will be a No. 1 seed. The Heels (31-2, RPI 2) are 9-1 against the RPI top 50, with victories against Duke, Kentucky, Kent State, Davidson and Miami. That’s not as impressive of a résumé as UCLA or Memphis, but UNC passes what Jay Bilas would call the “eye test.” It looks like one of the nation’s best teams. It’ll be seeded as such.

That’s three top seeds. Who gets the last spot?

Georgetown (27-5, RPI 8) might’ve had an argument with a Big East Tournament title to go with its regular-season crown, but losing to Pitt sunk the Hoyas. (To which they should say big deal. They made the Final Four as a 2 seed last year and could mimic that again.)

It won’t be Duke. The Devils (27-5, RPI 6) do have impressive non-conference wins against Wisconsin, Marquette and Davidson, but are 6-3 against the RPI top 50 and are 8-4 in their last 12 games. UCLA, UNC and Memphis are 11-1 in their last 12. That doesn’t stack up to the other 1s.

Count out Wisconsin, too. The Badgers (28-4, RPI 11) should pull off the Big Ten sweep, which is exactly what Ohio State did last season as a No. 1 seed. And they’re 11-1 in their last 12 games, which should boost the profile even more. But Wisconsin’s just 6-4 against the RPI top 50, which hurts. More damning is the perception around the Badgers. They don’t blow teams out, they just win. Would it help to beat Indiana instead of Illinois in the Big Ten title game? Probably. But the committee will have likely made up their mind about Wisconsin by then anyway.

That leaves, as you might expect, Kansas and Texas.

By all rights, it should be the Longhorns (27-5, RPI 5). They beat Kansas at home a month ago and also monster have wins against UCLA and Tennessee (which gives 'em an edge against the Vols), not to mention Oklahoma (thrice), Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s and Baylor. They’re 11-3 against the RPI top 50, are 11-1 in their last 12 games and could pull off the Big 12 sweep on Sunday by beating Kansas (again) in the tourney final.

Yet there’s the rub. Kansas (29-3, RPI 7) has been a team tagged for the Final Four all season. Bilas talked Saturday morning about how the Jayhawks, along with UCLA, Memphis and UNC, would be his top 4. They win big and they look like a Final Four team. But frankly, their résumé just isn’t as good as Texas’ is.

KU’s best win against the RPI is Oklahoma, which Texas has beaten three times. KU has won at USC and Texas A&M, but is that more impressive than at UCLA and a neutral win against Tennessee?

If Texas wins on Sunday, they’re a lock. If Kansas wins on Sunday in Kansas City, it makes those wins a wash, which still leaves Texas as the more impressive No. 1 team.

UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis and Texas are 1s. Tennessee, Kansas, Duke and Wisconsin are 2s. Let ‘em fight it out for the Final Four. And watch out for Pitt.

When do conference tourney losses help?

Mike Miller — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 01:30:00 GMT

Nobody wants to lose a game. But can losing early on in your conference tournament actually be a good thing?

Louisville would like to think so. So would Final Four darkhorses Connecticut and Notre Dame. All three were upset in the Big East Tournament on Thursday, and, as at-large locks, now turn their attention to the NCAA Tournament next week. They can rest their players, work out some kinks and focus on possible first-round opponents.

More importantly, unless you’re a bubble team that must keep playing to earn that automatic bid, winning the conference tournament isn’t a clear indicator of Big Dance success, either. Just because you're riding a winning streak doesn't mean much.

Winning the regular-season crown (or sharing it) is far more important.

Here's how regular-season champs and conference champs compare in the NCAA Tournament, since 1998:

Regular-season champs who advanced to the Final Four: 25. Tournament champs who reached the Final Four (out of 40 total): 15.
Regular-season champs who reached regional finals (out of 80): 49. Tournament champs: 34.
Regular-season champs in Sweet 16 (out of 160): 79. Tournament champs: 50.
That includes 48 times when a team won the regular-season and tournament titles.

Those numbers were tweaked slightly last season when a host of conference sweeps where Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UNC, Kansas and Memphis won regular-season and tournament titles and reached the Elite Eight. UCLA and Oregon were the only Elite Eight teams who didn’t pull it off. Three of the four Final Four teams were regular-season champs. Same with the previous two seasons.

It makes sense, too. Teams that play more consistently over a longer period of time would be more likely to perform well in March. After all, a team can't just get hot when it wants to.

Essentially, regular-season success is a good indicator of teams that are tournament ready and could make a run.

Now, none of that prattling means UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame or any other team that’s been bounced from their conference tourney can’t win. It’s just going to make me think twice about advancing the Cards or Huskies very far in my bracket and take a second look at Wisconsin, Kansas or Texas.

Quick thought on Florida’s Billy Donovan, whose team won’t be going for the three-peat this season. Sounds like Donovan wishes he would’ve taken that Orlando Magic job.

“It’s hard for me to be excited going forward because I don’t see things getting fixed,” Donovan said after losing to Alabama in the SEC Tournament.

“It’s in front of our guys, what it takes to win. For whatever reason, I haven’t brought it out in them. They’re not committed to it. ... I’m not really excited about seeing this group of guys being sophomores.”

Ummm, what NBA jobs will be open this season?

Big East has Wednesday's best game

Mike Miller — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 23:55:00 GMT

Leave it to the Big East Tournament to open with a crucial game. Seems like this tourney always gives us an early glimpse of March Madness.

No. 8 seed Villanova plays ninth-seeded Syracuse at noon ET Thursday. The winner still has a shot at earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The loser is headed for the NIT. Talk about pressure.

“Both of us are in great position. I wouldn't want it any other way. You always have a chance to get yourself right because you're always playing other big teams and you don't have to hope about somebody else winning or losing. If we beat them I think we do have a great chance,” says Villanova coach Jay Wright.

Who wins? Toss a coin. They split the regular-season series, with the road team winning both times. Villanova’s offense was consistent in both games – logging 102.0 and 102.4 efficiency ratings – but its defense varied wildly. In its win, its defensive efficiency was 89.4; in the loss, 122.0 (Paul Harris’ scoring output increased 22 points).

The other games – West Virginia vs. Providence, Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati, Marquette vs. Seton Hall – aren’t quite as intriguing, but none of ‘em should be blowouts. Keep an eye on the Mountaineers, too. They can’t afford a loss and still get into the Big Dance.

The Atlantic 10 started out this season as the hot conference, but between Dayton’s injuries, Rhode Island’s last-season skid, Duquense’s lack of defense and St. Joe’s bad luck, the league will be lucky to get two bids, let alone three.

Along with Xavier and UMass, Dayton has the strongest NCAA tourney résumé among A-10 teams, but it also has what I’d consider the toughest first-round game, too. Rick Majerus’ Saint Louis squad has its moments. Expect Brian Roberts to carry Dayton to a big win and a chance to bolster its argument by playing Xavier on Thursday.

Don’t bother with any of the C-USA games -- Tulsa vs. East Carolina, UTEP vs. SMU, Marshall vs. Tulane, Southern Mississippi – on Wednesday. Unless you want to waste your time.

East Coast fans lucked out with the early Pac-10 game. Washington vs. Cal – who split the season series – is the only game you’ll want to see, though neither are bound for the NCAA Tournament. Arizona will crush Oregon State, which didn’t win a Pac-10 game this season.

In fact, the Beavers are the worst team in any BCS conference. And it’s not even close. Don’t worry about staying up for that one unless you haven’t seen Jerryd Bayless play. Thursday is when the good stuff starts out West.

Bubble trouble? Watch these games

Mike Miller — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 18:01:00 GMT

Butler may never more fans from BCS schools than it will tonight against Cleveland State. Well, BCS schools on the bubble, that is. If those bubble teams are smart, they’ll also be Western Kentucky fans.

Such is the case this time of year when schools like San Diego can make that bubble just a little more dicey for schools like Syracuse and Villanova, which open the BCS conference tournaments with their game Wednesday morning. Rest assured, both teams will be watching those games.

It won’t be just BCS schools watching, either. South Alabama’s stunning loss in the Sun Belt semifinals placed it squarely on the bubble. The Jaguars’ strong RPI (37) and regular-season crown give them a decent résumé, but three losses in their final 12 games hurts. It all makes for a long few days for a worthy mid-major. Kyle Whelliston thinks South ‘Bama is out. Most years, that may be true. But not in a shoddy bubble season like this. I’d slate the Jags as a 12 seed; Joe Lunardi has ‘em as an 11.

Illinois State will be doing the same. The Mo Valley seems like a lock for two at-large bids, but I have my doubts. If nothing else, the Redbirds can be known as the best team in Illinois.

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