Beyond the Arc : Brackets

Best-ever ACC coach? Go to the bracket!

Mike Miller — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 23:01:00 GMT

Love the bracket.

Check that. Love THE bracket. You know, the ultimate way to categorize and argue anything and everything? Love it.

Lowercase is the original, the NCAA tournament. Uppercase is for everything else, much like the guys at “The Final Four of Everything” figured out. Best action movie? Seed ‘em and throw ‘em in a bracket. Most overrated candy bar? Bracket ‘em.

It’s the best way to have a little bit of March extend into summer without actually having games to focus on. (Or so I think. You might have other stuff to do.)

Still, the best brackets usually involve sports. Dunno if it’s the argumentative aspect or the natural tendency to match up sports topics and see how it all comes out, but sports remains the go-to.

Cue the guys at Buster Sports.

Their ACC basketball coaches bracket began today (hat tip: Tar Heel Fan), with 32 of the ACC’s top coaches paired off. For the next few weeks, they’ll match up guys like Bill Foster vs. Rick Barnes and decide which coach wins. (Click here to see who didn’t make the cut.)

Every coach gets a mini-bio and a bit on strengths and weaknesses, some of which are kinda surprising. Who knew Roy Williams (in 6 seasons) already amassed more ACC wins than Jimmy Valvano did in 10 seasons? (To say nothing of two national titles; spread the love Roy!)

The opening matchup – Mike Krzyzewski vs. Frank Haith – was a no-brainer, as will most of the other 1 vs. 8 and 2 vs. 7 matchups.

It’ll get interesting around July 22 when all of the first-round matchups are over and the average coaches are out of the way. (Seems strange to see guys like Haith or Dino Gaudio on there, but I can live with it.) And – presumably – when Williams matches up with Dean Smith in the Final Four, who wins that one? Six seasons of dominance vs. 36 years of continued excellence?

OK, that showdown should go to the Dean. Coach K vs. Dean is another story …

Can the Heels really run to a title? Yes

Mike Miller — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:09:00 GMT

Nobody’s perfect.

Keep that in mind when checking your NCAA tournament brackets the next few week. When you shake your head over missing that upset “you knew would happen” don’t fret. When that 12 seed makes a run to the Sweet 16, just keep this in mind.

The odds of picking a perfect bracket are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1.

Yes, 9 quintillion to 1. No, I did not make up that word. Chew on that when pondering if Western Kentucky can make another run to the Sweet 16.

After all , those upsets come at any time. Even last year, when all four No. 1 seeds make the Final Four, we had a wild first round that featured a slew of upsets. Davidson, K-State and the entire Tampa, Fla., pod were Madness at its peak.

This season seems like more of the same. The first four days should provide a slew of upsets, while the better teams emerge as true contenders after the Sweet 16.

And who are those contenders and which teams are headed for upsets? Here’s my bracket (big upsets are bolded).

East Region
First-round winners: Pitt, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Xavier, VCU, Villanova, Texas and Duke. The Cowboys’ win against Tennessee should be one of the better opening games. I also succumbed to the trendy VCU over UCLA pick. May regret that.

Sweet 16 teams: Pitt, Florida State, ‘Nova, Duke. Straight chalk…

Until the regional semifinals. Villanova upending Duke should be a great showcase of guard-heavy teams that can both shoot the 3. And call me crazy, but I like the ‘Noles to stun Pitt. They’re really long and athletic, with a superb scorer in Toney Douglas. Not sure DeJuan Blair can stay out of foul trouble.

After all of that, the Wildcats should be in the Final Four. There’s the surprise team for the last weekend.

South Region
First-round winners: Carolina, Butler, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Temple, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma. Two true upsets, though if Chester Frazier were healthy, I woulda taken the Illini.

Sweet 16 teams: Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Clemson. The Tigers are stumbling into the tournament, but I don’t like the Sooners. I think ‘Cuse would’ve beaten them in the next round, so I took a chance and knocked ‘em out early.

North Carolina should outrun Gonzaga – and I mean outrun; this game may hit triple digits – and Syracuse will outshoot Clemson. A UNC-‘Cuse regional final could be awfully entertaining. A healthy-enough Ty Lawson outplays Jonny Flynn. Randomly enough, Arizona State is more likely to reach the final. I don’t buy it.

Midwest Region
First-round winners: Louisville, Ohio State, Arizona, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Kansas, USC, Michigan State. Utah should be miffed about playing the Wildcats. Not many teams have anyone that can match Luke Nevill in the post, but Arizona’s Jordan Hill is one of them. I’ll be sweating out the N.D. State-Kansas game, too.

Sweet 16 teams: Louisville, Wake, Kansas, Michigan State. Kansas edges the Mountaineers, while Wake wins the battle of NBA prospects against Arizona.

This was a brutal region, but Louisville should be able to handle the competition, including Michigan State in the final. There’s a reason the Cards are favored by the log5 method and multiple hoops pundits around the Web. They’re good. Sparty gets this close to a Final Four in Detroit.

West Region
First-round games: UConn, BYU, Purdue, Mississippi State, Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Memphis. Tagging Utah State to beat Marquette is a stretch, but I don;’t mind picking a team that’s won 30 games. Having the Bulldogs beat 4 seed Washington is a bigger stretch.

Sweet 16 teams: UConn, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis. Call it the “brutal defense” group.

UConn and Memphis will both be tested in the semis, but defense should win out. Same with the final, where Memphis advances past UConn. The Tigers are one of the few teams with a more efficient defense than the Huskies.

Final Four: North Carolina should be able to overwhelm Villanova. The Heels won’t be caught flat in the Final Four again. Last year’s loss to Kansas must still sting this group. I’m guessing Wayne Ellington will be due for a big game. Rick Pitino’s beaten John Calipari once before in the Final Four, an 81-74 Kentucky win over UMass in 1996. I think his Cards beat Calipari’s Tigers in a game that could be in the 50s.

Champion: North Carolina. When in doubt, pick the most talented team. This didn’t work in 2006 with UConn, but was true in 2005 for the Heels. The last three champions, Florida, Florida and Kansas) featured balanced scoring, a high scoring margin and hit at least 50 percent of its field-goal attempts. That also sums up UNC.

The major concern is the Heels’ defense, which wasn’t the case for any of the last five champions. All of ‘em could play defense. But in a year where all the top defensive teams can struggle to score points, something’s gotta give. I’m going with the Heels.

Obama's bracket a lot like yours (and mine)

Mike Miller — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 16:37:00 GMT

President Obama isn’t much different from me, and a good number of other hoops fans – at least when it comes to filling out his NCAA tournament bracket.

Obama, a dedicated hoops fan and former player, picked a few first-round upsets but stuck with the chalk, advancing three No. 1 seeds and a 2 seed to the Final Four.

Compare his picks with users in our tournament challenge. Only 1 or 2 games are different. And most users are going to have 2 or 3 top seeds in their Final Fours. It's a given. In that sense, he's a man of the people.

Personal note: When I post my bracket later tonight, it'll contain six of Obama's Elite Eight, and the same title-game matchup. Doubt this makes me presidential material though...

His pick to win? North Carolina (he also picked UNC last year).

When every bracket pool is closed Thursday, I'd guess that Carolina will be the pick to win it all in more brackets around the country than any other team. It's good news when the president can predict what the country thinks (at least a during March Madness).

The Heels (28-4) do have plenty to like. Vegas installed them as the early favorite, while Obama says their “experience and balance” is hard to overlook. Then again, Ty Lawson’s nagging toe injury is an issue.

And, there’s the pressure factor. When the president calls you out, that probably makes your stomach clinch into a little ball.

“Now, for all the Tar Heels who are watching, I picked you last year — you let me down,” Obama said. “This year, don’t embarrass me in front of the nation, all right? I’m counting on you. I still got those sneakers you guys gave me.”

The good news for Carolina is it gets to play right down the road in Greensboro, N.C., for the opening weekend. UNC has never lost a first- or second-round game in Greensboro. After that, perhaps Lawson’s toe will be a little bit better. One doesn’t want to disappoint the president.

Obama made his picks during a televised segment Wednesday on ESPN. It was no surprise to see him cool and collected. (Especially with Andy Katz’s random questions.)

He knew which teams have been playing well, which have been struggling and – like anyone who’s ever filled out a bracket – clearly struggled with some picks. Doesn’t everyone second-guess themselves on something like this?

Of course, not everyone agreed with his picks – or that he even took the time to fill out a bracket.

There’s no pleasing everyone. I’d be mad if he didn’t fill out a bracket. How else would he be plugged in to what the nation is focused on this week?

UNC, UConn or take the other 64?

Mike Miller — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 21:43:00 GMT

Moments after Pitt’s loss to Providence Tuesday, my buddy Marty calls.

“If you had to pick one team, right now, to win the NCAA tournament, who would it be?”

I think about it, then settle on North Carolina. Without seeing any matchups, I’ll stick with their offense.

“OK,” he says, clearly ready for that answer. “If I took Carolina and UConn and gave you the other 64 teams, would you take that bet?”

Good question.

In a season where No. 1 keeps changing, the Heels (24-3) and Huskies (25-2) are probably the two teams most people will settle on when it comes time to fill out a bracket. They’re both loaded with future pros, feature coaches who’ve won it all before and have been Top 5 teams all season. Plus, there’s the name recognition.

But does that make it a smart bet? Both teams are dealing with key players out for the season (Marcus Ginyard and Jerome Dyson, respectively). Carolina’s defense is flawed, while UConn isn’t a dynamic offensive team.

Take the field? It’s looking that way.

That leaves Pitt, Oklahoma, Louisville, Memphis, Duke and Michigan State, among others. And those are just the top seeds. Teams like Kansas, Missouri, Gonzaga, ASU, UCLA, Villanova and Marquette could easily make the Final Four. Someone like Purdue or Arizona could catch fire at the right time. Who’s to say Steph Curry and Davidson don’t do the same?

Losses in February aren’t the end. No one’s invincible.

More and more it’s shaping up to be like 2000 (when top seed Michigan State outclassed No. 5 Florida, No. 8 Wisconsin and No. 8 UNC for the title) or 2006 (No. 3 Florida wins out over No. 2 UCLA, No. 4 LSU and No. 11 George Mason). The top seeds will be popular picks in March, but … those doubts remain.

Take the field? I think I will.