Beyond the Arc : Final Four (2008)

Kansas won its prize, but what about its Self?

Mike Miller — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 05:41:00 GMT

Bill Self’s “remarkable week” turned into extraordinary on Monday night. In a few days, extraordinary could turn into extravagant. But that’s how the game’s played for the newest coach atop college basketball’s mountaintop.

Amazing how quickly things change.

A little more than a week ago, the fifth-year Kansas coach was still seen as one of the “best coaches to never reach the Final Four.” A narrow escape against Davidson ended that.

It set up a showdown against the tournament’s top seed, North Carolina, led by none other than ex-Jayhawks coach and longtime fan favorite Roy Williams. If there was a must-win game for the good of Kansas basketball, this was it. One wild win later, the Selfesteem rose even more.

After Kansas’ overtime win against Memphis, it’s sky high. Good things do indeed come in threes. (Especially if you’re Self watching Mario Chalmers shoot his way into NCAA Tournament lore.)

“I'll be honest, I don't know how I'm gonna feel about this totally just yet because I'm a little in shock and a little overwhelmed,” Self said Monday.

That’s easy to understand since he knows Kansas’ hoops history and its March shortcomings.

Self cheered from the cheap seats at Kemper Arena in K.C., Mo. the last time the Jayhawks won the NCAA Tournament. Previously an assistant for then-KU coach Larry Brown, Self knew how much the school longed for another crown. When he took over for Williams in 2003, KU had been to four Final Fours and two championship games since winning it all in 1988. No titles to speak of.

In four seasons, Self took KU to two Elite Eights sandwiched around two humiliating first-round losses. In the meantime, Williams won a title with UNC. To say Kansas fans didn’t take it well would be an understatement.

“It’s a great responsibility to be the head coach at Kansas,” he said before the title game. “It’s a program with unbelievable pride, with terrific fans. It’s a way of life. There’s so much passion and people care so much.”

Yet, if the pressure built around Self, he simply responded by building the nation’s deepest, most balanced team and watched them bury all those previous failures by stunning Memphis. Kansas fans can breathe easy.

For a few days, at least. The bidding for Self’s services is about to begin.

When Oklahoma State coach Sean Sutton resigned last week, it was clear Self was the school’s dream coach. He’s an Oklahoma native, played for the Cowboys and was a graduate assistant under Eddie Sutton.

But even more than the school ties – a deciding factor when Williams left for Carolina – is that Oklahoma State also reportedly has money to sweeten the deal. Lots of money. Lottery–type money.

Self’s Kansas salary is about $1.4 million annually, which will be boosted this season thanks to Final Four and championship bonuses. He’ll soon meet with KU athletics director Lew Perkins and they’ll talk about a well-deserved raise at a job he loves.

It would be a small miracle to match the $3.5 million Oklahoma State is reportedly prepared to offer Self, to say nothing of the $6 million signing bonus. With that kind of dough, he’d be a fool not to listen.

And Self’s no fool. The man knows when to double-team Derrick Rose, when to go to a three-guard lineup and when to ride a freshman center until he drops. He refused to talk about Oklahoma State last week, but never ruled it out. Monday night, he did the same.

“I’m not going to say that couldn’t potentially happen, because I guess it potentially can.”

Is it strange to think that a coach coming off a national title at one of the country’s premier programs would leave?

After all, he’ll be revered by the Kansas faithful and, since he's only 45, he could certainly build onto his already impressive legacy at the school. This is where James Naismith coached, where Phog Allen and Larry Brown won titles and where Williams established his legend. Self could conceivably top them all. Is strange to leave?

In a word, no.

It's not all about the money. Oklahoma State may not be one of the premier programs – Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, UCLA are the fab four, with Kansas and Indiana right behind – but it’s not like Self would be going to coach N.J. Tech. OK State is the third-best program in the Big 12 -- and that's after missing the Big Dance three straight seasons.

The Cowboys have a proud hoops tradition of their own (the first school to win back-to-back NCAA titles). Before Kansas’ run this season, the Cowboys were the last Big 12 team to make the Final Four in 2004. Eddie Sutton built the team into a competitive, occasional contender by preaching defense. A recruiter like Self would do even better. (A title in Stillwater isn't out of the question, but it'd take a helluva class.)

And if there’s boatloads of money involved, it falls to Self to decide what’s more important to him: Continuing your run at Kansas and making lots of money, or trying to re-build your alma mater and make tons of money.

Self-ish or Self-less? Depends on your point of view. As a Kansas graduate, I hope Self stays. I would understand the draw of coaching your alma mater and a big payday to boot. It sucks, but I understand.

(The prevailing thought around Lawrence if he leaves will likely be, "Well, at least he gave us a title before he left." Anything to take a shot at Roy.)

Either way, the game’s newest coaching superstar is about to make his big week even bigger. And good for him. He's earned it.

Derrick Rose doing his 'Melo impersonation

Mike Miller — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 00:46:00 GMT

Pick your favorite Derrick Rose superlative. Astonishing. Unbelievable. Phenomenal. They all apply to Memphis’ freshman point guard.

So what’s left? Champion.

Just five years ago, Carmelo Anthony etched his name into NCAA lore as the best freshmen we’d ever seen. Rose is one victory from matching ‘Melo. Who knew history repeated itself so often? (For symmetry’s sake, the title-game opponent is the same as Anthony’s: Kansas. Go figure.)

Anthony’s legend is fairly well documented. He torched Texas for 33 points in the 2003 Final Four. Two days later, playing on a bad back, his 20 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists led Syracuse to its only NCAA title, the only freshmen who’d ever carried such a load. (Greg Oden did his best last season, but fell short.) Anthony turned pro a few weeks later and is now an NBA star.

Rose’s tourney line thus far is just as impressive: 25 points, nine rebounds, four assists vs. UCLA; 21 points, nine assists vs. Texas; 27 points, five assists vs. Michigan State; 21 points, 9 assists against Miss State.

He wasn’t a first-team All-American this season – neither was Carmelo in 2003 – because he wasn’t Memphis’ most obvious star. That would be junior swingman Chris Douglas-Roberts, the team’s leading scorer. But Douglas-Roberts thinks Rose is better than just an All-America. He should be player of the year.

“If it was up to me I would go with him not only because he is my teammate but I think he is the complete player,” Douglas-Roberts says.

Simply put, Rose is unstoppable. And he’s the reason the Tigers are 2-point favorites to beat Kansas on Monday. (If NBA general managers are smart, he’ll be the No. 1 pick in June’s draft, not K-State’s Michael Beasley. Power forwards, even ones as good as Beasley, aren’t as rare as a top-flight point guard.)

Kansas will try to stay in front of Rose using senior Russell Robinson, a superb on-ball defender. That’s a tall order. Rose (6-3) is bigger, stronger and faster than Robinson (6-0). Great players have been stopped by lesser athletes before, but it’s a rare feat.

“He’s just an all-out player,” says Memphis’ Antonio Anderson. “He’s such a great athlete; he can make a regular right or left hand lay-up look spectacular. He does something amazing every time out.”

Sound like ‘Melo, circa 2003?

Rose entered the season as one of five superb freshmen. Three of them – Rose, UCLA’s Kevin Love and Indiana’s Eric Gordon – were tabbed as most likely to win a title. Rose seemed like a good bet because of his physical gifts and willingness to actually be a pass-first point guard.

The first time Tigers coach John Calipari saw Rose in a gym “I busted out laughing. I said, ‘This kid is ridiculous.’ He was so fast.

“When I knew I really wanted him, he lost an AAU game, and he cried tears ‘cause he lost a game. I said, ‘I got to get that guy. That’s who I want.’ If a kid’s gonna cry over an AAU game, he’s going to have a will to win.”

Once he put on a Memphis uniform, he impressed fans, opponents, media, his coaches and teammates. It was hard to fathom at the time, but he turned a really good 33-4 Memphis team into a dynamite 38-1 squad. Throughout, he’s been humble, hard working and ensuring his teammates have thrived.

“He came in with so much hype, and the way he handled it, I had to admire it, because he fit right in,” Douglas-Roberts says. “When people say things about him, he tries to put it right on us. Like I’ve done this because of my teammates.”

A victory would give Memphis its first NCAA Tournament title. Against a balanced, excellent defensive team like Kansas it won’t be easy. The Jayhawks (36-3) have plenty of stars, a deep frontcourt and enough guard depth to keep throwing defenders at Rose even if Robinson gets into foul trouble.

For Rose to match ‘Melo as a transcendent player, he must overcome all that. Will we get a glimpse of history and future NBA stardom on Monday? It’s on Rose.

Picking Final Four winners? Flip a coin

Mike Miller — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 23:24:00 GMT

Flip a coin.

Deciding Saturday’s Final Four winners is that simple. Grab a coin – nothing fancy – and call it in the air. Sure, you could always go with the Vegas line, but doesn’t a coin flip work just as well?

This historic pair of games features four No. 1 seeds are vying for the NCAA Tournament title. They’re evenly matched, feature plenty of balance, depth, future NBA stars and the game’s best coaches. If you think you’ve figured out the winners, guess again. You’re just trying to get lucky.

Seriously. It’s a Final Four with little agreement on the champion.

FOX Sports used WhatIfSports’ computers to tab Kansas over Memphis. A similar type prediction method from Sporting News has Carolina and UCLA winning. Apparently one site uses Macs, the other PCs.

My favorite predictor, Ken Pomeroy thinks it’ll be the Jayhawks and Bruins winning. Hmmm. Nothing much to go on yet.

So forget the machines. Let’s try it with some human error.

First, some blog thoughts. Deadspin likes Kansas (in a hunch) and Memphis to win. Same goes for the Big Lead. Consider them the non-insider’s view.

Five ESPN experts have three different winners (Hubert Davis decided to wuss out). Rivals.com’s Andrew Skwara says the Heels have the matchup advantage. Same goes for the Tigers. The fine folks at Sports XChange agree with Rivals, giving slight edges to UNC and Memphis.

One of the few places that did have writers in agreement was SI.com. Only Luke Winn thinks North Carolina will win it all. Everyone else is tabbing UCLA. (Three out of the four think it’ll be UCLA beating UNC.)

But the common theme among college hoops writers and analysts is that North Carolina should win. There’s a fine split between UCLA and Memphis, though the tide seems to be swinging the Tigers’ way.

Here at NBCSports.com it’s the same. One of our writers, Ray Glier, favors the Heels and Tigers, but I’m torn. (And about to flip a coin, apparently.)

Before the tourney started, I picked UCLA to beat Kansas in the title game. I’m trying not to waver now, but it’s tough.

No team looked better than Memphis last week when it destroyed Texas and Michigan State. The Tigers got monster efforts from Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, good bench play from Shawn Taggert and they hit their free throws, a significant note for a team that was third to last as a team this season.

Carolina merely romped through the first two games and made Washington State look foolish. Only a 10-minute second-half lapse against Louisville kept the Heels from earning all the plaudits this week.

Yet…what happens now? UNC doesn’t get to play in the state of Carolina anymore. The Tigers could start missing free throws or lose some of that “us against the world” motivation. Then again, UCLA’s had trouble scoring the last month and Kansas is lucky to be here.

So, here goes. I’m making the favorites (Tigers, Heels) heads.

(Coin flipping.)

Memphis beats UCLA.

(Coin flipping.)

Kansas beats Carolina.

Hm. Two out of three?

Could this year's champ be 'greatest ever?'

Mike Miller — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 19:57:00 GMT

If Memphis beats UCLA in the Final Four, it’ll set an NCAA record for victories in a season. If North Carolina wins the title, it’ll set a record. And if the Tigers win it all, their 39 wins would be a memorable moment for the record books.

Yet, would 39 or 38 wins in one season be enough to vault either team into the “greatest ever” discussion?

After all, in the most loaded Final Four we’ve ever seen, shouldn’t the winner (survivor) receive some kind of consideration for “greatest” talk?

(To be clear, UCLA and Kansas could match the wins record by cutting down the nets. Both teams could make arguments for “greatest,” but without a wins record, it’s a tougher case. Bruins and Jayhawks are worth keeping in mind, though.)

It all depends on your version of “the greatest team ever.”

In a sport like college basketball where regional rivalries and conference play dictate most of the regular-season storylines (football season usually overshadows everything else), everyone has a favorite “greatest.” It breaks down three ways:

An undefeated NCAA champion. These are always brought up first in “greatest” talk and usually include Bob Knight’s undefeated ’76 Indiana squad, Bill Russell’s San Francisco Dons teams from the ‘50s or any of the Lew Alcindor or Bill Walton UCLA teams from the late ‘60s and early ‘70s. Future pro stars help these teams’ profiles, but aren’t critical to the “discussion greatest.

A team that dominated the regular season, featured plenty of star power, lost one or two games and won the NCAA Tournament.

Most notably, Rick Pitino’s ’96 Kentucky Wildcats, Coach K’s ’92 Blue Devils, North Carolina’s ’82 squad with James Worthy and Michael Jordan or ’74 N.C. State that beat Maryland in a classic ACC tourney final, then beat Walton’s Bruins in the semis en route to the title.

(Forget about being undefeated, the Wolfpack are the last title team with only 1 loss. Since then, 21 teams have entered the Big Dance with only one loss and have all left title-less. If Memphis doesn’t win, maybe analysts should start clamoring for teams to lose at least two games before the NCAA Tournament.)

The third team that gets “greatest ever” consideration would be teams like ’91 UNLV, ’99 Duke or ’85 Georgetown. These are schools that dominated the regular season, featured NBA talent yet didn’t win an NCAA title.

That last category applies to all four teams in this year’s tournament, but most notably Memphis.

The Tigers (37-1) are on a three-year tear rarely seen. At 103-9, only Kentucky from ’96-98 won more games. Memphis hasn’t lost a Conference USA game since 2006. It beat foes by an average of 18.6 points this season. It beat NCAA tourney teams in Georgetown, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, USC and Arizona. Except for a home loss to No. 2 Tennessee, the Tigers rolled through the season.

They feature the Final Four’s best NBA prospect in point guard Derrick Rose (who could be the top pick), a first-team All-American in Chris Douglas-Roberts and two other forwards in Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier that could be key reserves. When it comes to athleticism, Memphis has it in spades.

"When we get to the personnel part, our guys will enjoy watching it because you're going to see some of the most amazing dunks and lobs and athletic plays," says UCLA coach Ben Howland. "There will be a lot of oohs and aahs coming out of the popcorn galley."

But setting the wins record would be their best argument. For context, perennial power Arizona has won 39 games the last two years combined.

Four teams share that record for most wins in a season: ’86 Duke, ’87 UNLV, ’99 Duke and ’05 Illinois (’86 Duke was 37-3, the others 37-2.) All of them made the Final Four, yet none of them won an NCAA title. The most wins for a championship team? The 1948 Kentucky squad that beat Baylor to finish 36-3.

Maybe “greatest ever” is a little lofty until we know just how good Rose & Co. will be down the road. After all, the UCLA teams that are remembered featured Alcindor and Walton. (For some reason, Sidney Wicks’ brilliant ’71 team is usually overlooked.) Same deal with the ’82 Tar Heels because a team with Jordan and Worthy must’ve been great.

Also, it’s tough to really compare teams from then to now because the game has changed so much. UCLA’s dominant teams weren’t allowed to dunk. The 3-point line didn’t exist until 1987.

But we can certainly compare this year’s winner to the elite teams of the last 20 years, the best of which were – to my eyes – ’92 Duke, ’96 Kentucky, ’02 Maryland and ’07 Florida. (The last 10 are spotlighted here.)

The team that wins Monday, be it Memphis, UNC, UCLA or Kansas, would easily fit into that group. But Memphis could ascend to the top.

A once-in-a-lifetime Final Four

Mike Miller — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 01:29:00 GMT

It’s a loaded Final Four. It’s not hyperbole, it’s not exaggeration. It’s simply what happens when every 1 seed advances to the final weekend.

Yes, this was that season when sticking with the chalk in your bracket would’ve been a blessing. The preseason AP top 25 went Carolina, UCLA, Memphis and Kansas. All four received one seeds and all four played up to their seeding. Kansas and Memphis didn’t fall short. Carolina steamrolled foes. And UCLA, well, the Bruins are used to playing at this time of year.

Simply put, those four teams comprise a once-in-a-generation Final Four. (Yes, you've read this before. But it got better.)

Their combined record of 143-9 (.941 win percentage) blows away the second best foursome since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. (That would be 1998, when UNC, Stanford, Kentucky and Utah went 126-14. Most seasons, the four combine to go 116-22.) It’s even better than 1976, when there were two undefeated teams playing (Indiana and Rutgers).

Try on this nugget: Before this season, only five teams entered the Final Four with at least 35 wins. Everyone has at least 35 this year.

Need stars to watch? Tyler Hansbrough, Kevin Love and Chris Douglas-Roberts could be first-team All-America, while Derrick Rose, Brandon Rush, Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, Russell Westbrook and Darrell Arthur all right on their heels.

For the tempo-free fans, all four are exceedingly efficient – the best on kenpom.com – on offense and defense. Only the Heels aren’t in kenpom’s top 10 in both categories.

And all of that doesn’t even begin to cover the historical numbers.

Combined wins: 6,872
Tournament wins: 303
Final Four appearances: 51
Tournament titles: 17

The Bruins have the most titles among the group, with 11. Carolina and Kansas and 2 and 3 in all-time wins. Memphis is the only school without an NCAA tourney title, but the Tigers are on a 3-year tear rarely seen, racking up the second most wins in a three-year span (103). When it comes to college hoops pedigree, only Kentucky, Indiana and Duke can stack up to this foursome.

It’s like the college hoops gods wanted us to have amazing storylines for this week and potentially amazing games to match. (Over/under on Roy Williams vs. Kansas stories? 12. Number of anticipated references to John Wooden? Six. Hype about Rose’s NBA potential? Endless.)

I know it's strange without any versions of a hoops Cinderella -- Davidson gave it a shot -- but maybe, just maybe, this is a good thing. Maybe casual fans can finally see what us hoopheads love about the winter months.

Let’s thank the gods for their gift. With any luck, there’s more to come.

Kansas, Memphis get their chances to shine

Mike Miller — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 23:07:00 GMT

Sunday’s a big day for Kansas. Memphis too, but I’m starting with Kansas.

The Jayhawks will never be the bigger, badder bully in an NCAA Tournament regional final. And coach Bill Self will never have a better chance to grab that Final Four berth. (Yes, a Self squad has been favored before in the Elite Eight. But taking Tulsa against North Carolina is a world apart from guiding Kansas against Davidson.)

In their way is the latest – and possibly the greatest – tournament Cinderella, Davidson, a school with the tournament’s best scorer, leading assist man and a devoted fan base. I’m guessing that fan base turns into the entire TV audience Sunday night.

So if Kansas wants to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2003 – an eternity in Lawrence – it’ll need to be exactly what’s it’s been thus far: A stone-cold efficient team that’s taken advantage of an easy path.

Thus far, Kansas has dispatched 16 seed Portland State (85-61), 8 seed UNLV (75-56) and 12 seed Villanova (72-57). Add in 10 seed Davidson and it’s the easiest path to the Final Four for a top seed since Michigan State in 2001 (16, 9, 12, 11).

To be blunt, a team couldn’t ask for more.

The Jayhawks (34-3) have been brutally efficient in those games, too. They’ve had efficiency margins of .382, .308 and .28 to go with their wins. Their defense has gotten better each time (limiting Villanova to .819 PPP) while the offense has been its usual balanced self.

Davidson (29-6) you also know all about by now. Stephen Curry has been other-worldly, scoring 40, 30 and 33 points in the Wildcats’ three tournament wins. Wisconsin – only one of the nation’s elite defensive teams – was intent on stopping Curry, but failed miserably. The offense is deadly from outside, hitting 37.4 percent of its 3-point attempts (it’s up to 39 during the tournament).

And that’ll be the key factor on Sunday. Kansas can struggle against good perimeter scoring teams (read: Davidson). Teams shoot often from 3-point range and make just under 34 percent of those attempts, often a result of attempts from KU’s ball-hawking guards gambling on steals and leaving opponents open for 3s.

The three is the key. Oddly enough, it’ll be the biggest key for Texas against Memphis, too.

It’s the Tigers’ third straight Elite Eight. Yet at 36-1, they’re staring at their best shot at finally breaking through to the final weekend. But if they get Texas’ best shot, they may fall short again.

The Longhorns (31-6) hit 38.2 percent of their 3s, with A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin leading the way. Texas is quick, can shoot and doesn’t turn the ball over often (tops in the nation in turnover percentage).

It’ll be interesting to see what happens going up against a Memphis team that does force turnovers, has the quickness to match Texas’ guards and defends the 3 as well as any team in the country.