Beyond the Arc : NBA draft

On the NBA's minimum-age requirement

Mike Miller — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:37:00 GMT

Part of me is really, really fond of the NBA’s minimum-age requirement.

Is it wrong that it cheers me a little to have seen Kevin Durant and Kevin Love play college ball? Or Michael Beasley and Eric Gordon? Even if it was just one year for all those guys, it was better than seeing the likes of Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and LeBron James jump straight to the pros.

Mark Duncan/AP

Woulda been nice to see LeBron play in college.

But I get the downside. The NBA’s one of the few professional leagues that doesn’t encourage its athletes to join its ranks ASAP. Players miss out on money, and some guys – who, let’s be honest, may not have any interest in college – are forced into an academic farce.

Baseball’s minor leagues are littered with guys fresh out of high school. Soccer, tennis, hockey all encourage players to spend their teenage years honing their game against the pros. So what’s the NBA’s deal?

Couple things. College coaches teach those young guys how to play (for the most part). They develop skills, and if they’re really good, enter the league with some name recognition. It’s a win-win for the NBA (better players who have cachet) and colleges (‘cause they never would’ve gotten those guys anyway).

Well, NBA commissioner David is toying with the idea of raising the minimum age requirement to 20. And author Buzz Bissinger thinks that’s foolish. In an Op-Ed N.Y. Times piece, he says the league should just get rid of the thing. TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott, among others, takes issue with a few of his points and doubts the age requirement will ever go away.

Here to stay or go away? Probably the former, which cheers me a little bit. Sorry guys. I’m selfish that way.

Follow me on Twitter and get more college basketball news at NBCSports.com.

Ah, the goofyness of NBA's draft combine

Mike Miller — Sun, 31 May 2009 21:58:00 GMT

Taking a litany of tests and long, grueling interviews with random questions is typical for college students this time of year. Even NBA hopefuls.

The NBA draft combine – formerly called the pre-draft camp; more on that later – came to a close Sunday after four days of poking, prodding and probing about 50 of the nation’s top college players.

OK, it’s not like taking the bar or a series of finals, but six hours of interviews can’t be easy. It’s been a while since I did the post-college job interview marathon, but the pressure of saying something wrong to a prospective employer is nerve-racking. Just ask Jonny Flynn.

“You’ve got to talk the whole time, you’ve got to sit up right, you’ve got to make a good impression. So that’s way more tiring. Playing basketball, that’s the easy part,” he said Thursday.

And it must be tough to maintain a straight face during some of the questions. The Washington Post dug up these nuggets from the weekend:

Ty Lawson shared a story about an interview he had with the Memphis Grizzlies. Someone asked him about one of his uncles who was a barber. Lawson had no idea who the guy was talking about until the team representative informed Lawson that his uncle cut his hair. Chase Budinger said one team official asked him if he had a girlfriend, then asked if he had any "friends with benefits." Budinger offered a "no comment." Jordan Hill said that one team official asked him what drink he prefers whenever he goes out to party. Hill's response? "Water with lemon."

Of course, players and agents know these types of questions are coming. According to Chad Ford, one agent prepared all of his clients with some stock answers.

If asked about their hobbies, they respond as such: “My hobby is doing community service. That’s what I like to do in my spare time.” Classic.

So what’s involved in the basketball part? Not as much as it used to …

When it was the “pre-draft camp,” there were 5-on-5 and 3-on-3 scrimmages. Now, it’s a bunch of drills, strength and agility tests and physicals. Thus, the “combine” label. (Turns out the more scrimmaging you do, the less players want to be involved. Greater likelihood of injuries that way.)

From the San Francisco Chronicle:

"Teams have expressed dissatisfaction with the caliber of players participating in the 5-on-5 games at the camp, the absence of players who refused to play in games ... in addition, the cost of the 5-on-5 portion of the camp didn't seem to be justified by its benefits to the teams."

That decision didn’t keep five of the draft’s top prospects from skipping the drills, though. Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, Ricky Rubio, James Harden and Jordan Hill all passed on the drills.

Plenty of guys did participate. Ford has a breakdown by position here. He says Jrue Holiday, Flynn, DeMar DeRozan, Austin Daye, Earl Clark and DeJuan Blair fared well. Ty Lawson was one of the few guys who didn’t impress onlookers.

Then again, it’s the NBA draft. The thing that usually impressed NBA teams the most are players’ measurements. Height and arm reach still rule the rankings. NBADraftExpress always puts out every player’s height (with and without shoes, though why they do measurements without shoes is beyond me since they play in shoes), weight, wingspan and standing reach.

Even better? The database goes back to 1989 and is sortable. It’s the kind of thing you could look at for hours. If you’re like me and don’t have anything better to do, that is. It’s all a great way of comparing players on paper, but doesn’t capture just who can play and who can’t.

Maybe that’s what the questions were for …

NBA draft deadline just got coach friendly

Mike Miller — Fri, 01 May 2009 03:41:00 GMT

Thanks, NCAA. The card is in the mail. But don’t expect one from NBA hopefuls. Or college hoops fans.

The NCAA’s Board of Directors approved a new rule that requires NBA draft early entrants who wish to stay in school to withdraw by May 8, cutting into their decision time by more than a month. (The change takes effect this fall.) Anyone who wants to jump to the pros better make up their minds.

Amazingly enough, the rule is a compromise to an ACC proposal that would’ve moved up the deadline to mid-April.

So we’re clear, once the NCAA tourney ends in early April, players can declare for the draft and take a month to decide if it’s the right move. Individual NBA workouts will be April 30.

It’s good for coaches, who no longer have to wait more than two months to find out if some players will return to school. That makes spring recruiting far easier.

It’s also good for us media types, who like to complain about tracking who’s in and who’s out of the draft. (As of Thursday, 73 underclassmen threw their names in the draft.)

But it can’t be good for the players. As Rush the Court wrote earlier this month, it’ll likely limit the amount of good feedback a prospective draft candidate can learn. Nothing like rushing into a major decision.

After all, this isn’t a rule for guys like Tyreke Evans or Jrue Holiday. They’re first-round picks. It’s for the Devan Downeys and Greivis Vasquezs – the players who might not get drafted could possibly pass up on solid senior seasons.

It’s not good for the sport. The harder it becomes for players to make good decisions regarding the draft – and every year, we see someone declare for the draft when they clearly don’t belong – the more college hoops suffers.

Why rush marginal prospects into the NBA’s developmental league or overseas? We already have some high school prospects doing that…

Stay or go? 10 players have tough calls

Mike Miller — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:12:00 GMT

The deadline was Sunday. Now the real guessing game begins: Who’s going to keep their name in the NBA draft and who’s going to withdraw by June 15?

More than 50 underclassmen submitted their names, but probably half of that number will return to college for the 2009-10 season. Guys like Texas A&M’s Donald Sloan, Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds and Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody will surely return after they hear what aspects of their games need work.

Others, like UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet or Memphis’s Tyreke Evans, are gone. They’re lottery picks.

But there’s a handful of players who could go either way. They’re guys who could be lottery picks (Jeff Teague), could last until the later part of the first round (Damion James) or could get taken in the second round (Derrick Brown). Or they could return to school to boost their draft stock and make a deep run in the NCAA tourney. It’s fluid, depending on their workouts during the next six weeks.

Sara D. Davis/AP

Gerald Henderson

Here’s a closer look at 10 of those guys.

Derrick Brown, Xavier
At 6-8 and 225 pounds, Brown’ll get dogged by scouts and draftniks as a “tweener” because he’s not a swingman and is a little short for a power forward. But that’s an old, tired argument. NBA rosters are filled with guys like Brown – explosive, long-armed athletes who can just play. If he returns, Xavier will be the favorite in the A-10 and a Sweet 16 candidate. He’s not a sure-fire first-round pick, which means he should return.

Austin Daye, Gonzaga
The Zags’ sophomore forward has the right size (6-10) and skill set (adept ball-handler, good outside shot) of an NBA player, which makes sense. His dad, Darren, played in the league. But – and there’s no other way to put it – Daye’s soft. He averaged 12.7 ppg and grabbed 6.8 rpg, but never impressed against defenders his size, or seemed willing to play down low. He’d be a first-round pick, but that applies for next season, too. He should go back to school.

Gerald Henderson, Duke
Everything about Henderson screams NBA. He’s an explosive 2-guard who’s increased his scoring average each season (including a 35-point game vs. Wake) and can be a lock-down defender. Sure, his jumper needs work, but he’s ready. But part of me wonders if he’ll be back in Durham. Without Henderson, Duke’s capable of a Final Four run. But with him, they could win it all. Flip a coin here.

Jrue Holiday, UCLA
Full disclosure: Russell Westbrook is a better pro as a rookie than I ever thought possible. He’s a great defender, his athleticism translates perfectly to the pro game and he can play both guard spots. Why does any of this matter? This all applies to Holiday. The Bruins freshmen didn’t have great stats (8.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg), but scouts think he’ll bloom in the pros. Anytime you turn in a freshman season like Holiday’s and still be a lottery pick, you gotta go pro.

Damion James, Texas
Seems like James is just getting the NBA out of his system for now. He’s still adjusting to playing the 3 (his future NBA position) and working on his outside shot, which makes him a borderline first-round prospect. Go back to school and challenge Kansas for the Big 12 title. The Longhorns certainly have the recruits to do it.

Patty Mills, St. Mary’s.
Go back to school. Mills is a blur with the ball, but plays too fast and his outside shooting is sub-par and probably just a late first-rounder as a result. An injury deflated his season, and the Gaels’. If he returns, Mills could dethrone Gonzaga in the WCC, be a national player of the year candidate, get to the Big Dance and re-establish himself as a lottery pick.

Patrick Patterson, Kentucky
I know Big Blue Nation wants their workhorse power forward back in Lexington. He could certainly benefit from another season in school and one without any issues (injuries, Billy Gillispie). But he’s projected as a possible lottery pick, which probably won’t improve after next year when he has to share the front court with DeMarcus Cousins and Daniel Orton. Patterson could stay in school and possibly help the ‘Cats back to NCAA tournament glory. But if he’s anywhere near a lottery pick, it might be time to bail.

Tyler Smith, Tennessee
Think Josh Howard. That’s who I see. Smith’s a great college player (two-time All-SEC) who can score, defend and is decent shooter. But he’s never going to be a star. He’ll be a great complementary player (like Howard is to Dirk Nowitzki). As a result, he’s a late first-round pick, who could improve that draft stock slightly with a great senior season. But is it worth another year? He stays in, maybe he plays with LeBron James next season.

DaJuan Summers, Georgetown
This one’s strange. Summers told Hoyas coach John Thompson III that “he is closing the book on his college career,” but the 6-8 swingman isn’t a first-round lock. He led Georgetown in scoring, but that’s not something to brag about since the Hoyas went in the tank last season. Summers could be a good pro. He’s athletic and has a reliable outside shot, but he isn’t ready. ~~Go back to school~~. UPDATE: Too late. Summers signed with an agent. Doh!

Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Tough call here. The Deacs’ point guard could be a lottery pick, but he also could pair with teammate Al-Farouq Aminu to form one of the NCAA’s best inside-outside combos next season. Teague is ready for the pros, but everything will depend on him. If wants to go for some NCAA hardware, he’ll come back to school. Another year should also cement his lottery status, but it’s hard to see him back in Winston-Salem.

Hoyas hope Monroe makes Griffin-esque leap

Mike Miller — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 14:55:00 GMT

The NBA draft did a number on Big East teams this week.

Underclassmen stars like UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet, Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn and Louisville’s Earl Clark all signed (or, in the case of Thabeet, is expected to sign) with agents, ending their college eligibility. Another, Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody, declared for the draft, but probably won’t sign with an agent.

That follows earlier decisions to turn pro from guys like Pitt’s DeJuan Blair and Syracuse guards Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris.

Georgetown was one of the few schools that did get some good news: The Hoyas’ rising star, freshman Greg Monroe, announced he’ll return to school.

Monroe, a 6-11 center, took a page out of Blake Griffin’s book. Instead of declaring after his freshman year to likely be a Top 10 pick, he could boost his stock with a monster sophomore season and be the No. 1 overall selection in 2010.

And if any team could use a Blake Griffin-type season in 2009-10, it’s the Hoyas.

Georgetown imploded this year. It finished 16-15, and lost 12 of its last 16 games. It’s hard to imagine this was a team that beat UConn, Memphis, Villanova and Syracuse.

More disappointing is the attrition on John Thompson III’s roster.

The school announced sophomore swingman Omar Wattad will transfer, making him the eighth Hoya in the last four seasons to leave Georgetown before his eligibility expired. That only includes two players who jumped to the pros. The other six transferred.

Ouch.

"People leave for different reasons," Thompson told the Washington Post. "Some leave because they are unhappy with their playing time. Some leave because of family situations and personal issues. Some people don't necessarily have the option to return. There are different reasons why people leave."

That leaves Georgetown with eight scholarship players for the 2009-10 season or five spots open and forces Thompson to hit the recruiting trail ASAP. It also makes next season crucial.

The Hoyas still have talent. Sophomores Austin Freeman and Chris Wright progressed nicely this season, though Freeman’s outside shot was inconsistent. But after you get past freshman Jason Clark and sophomore Nikita Mescheriakov, there isn’t much.

That’s where Monroe comes in.

He doesn’t play with Griffin’s brute force (he averaged 12.7 ppg and 6.5 rpg last season) and won’t log any 40-20 nights (Georgetown’s offensive style also plays a factor). But he’s just as capable of dominating a game thanks to his all-around skills.

When the Hoyas run their offense through Monroe, he’s just as likely to find the open man as he is to take his man off the dribble and drive to the bucket. That’s what happens when you’re 6-11 and handle the ball like a guard.

He led the Hoyas in steals (1.8 a game), blocks (1.5) and was second on the team with 2.5 assists a game (though maybe that says more about the Hoyas…) Kenpom.com had him among the national leaders in ORtg (110.8), eFg% (57.9), true shooting percentage (61.2), offensive and defensive rebound % (8.8 and 16.7), blocks (5.1), steals (3.7) and fouls drawn per 40 minutes (4.8).

Everything in that list (except rebounding) was better than Griffin did as a freshman.

If Monroe can make a Griffin-esque jump as a sophomore, the Hoyas are going to be Big East title contenders. Simple as that.

Returning to school paying title dividends

Mike Miller — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 03:26:00 GMT

Thinking about the NBA draft? Take some advice from Mr. T: Stay in school.

Just ask North Carolina, Kansas or Florida. There’s never been a better time to come back and win a title.

Gregory Shamus/Getty

From left, Wayne Ellington, Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green

“We came back to accomplish something,” UNC senior Danny Green said after beating Michigan State on Sunday. “We had to make some sacrifices. We had to give up a lot of individual things to make this work. I think we did a great job the whole season of being selfless and sharing the ball with each other and sacrificing.”

The Tar Heels’ quartet of Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Green were just the latest group of players to put their professional careers on hold and have it result in NCAA glory. If college coaches are smart, they’re gathering their players and telling them that they too could win it all.

Prime examples for next year:

Wake Forest
James Johnson says he’s going pro, but Jeff Teague and Al-Farouq Aminu are thinking about staying put. Convince Johnson to do the same and the Deacs will have one of the most talented rosters next season.

Purdue
JaJuan Johnson is a future star, while Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore could be serviceable pros. All three should stay put.

Kansas
Cole Aldrich could be a lottery pick. If he returns, the Jayhawks could be the preseason favorites. KU coach Bill Self is one guy who’s seen the benefit of guys returning to school – even if it took a lucky break.

Brandon Rush was set on entering the 2007 NBA draft when he tore his ACL. He withdrew, rehabbed his knee and helped the ‘Hawks to the 2008 crown. And he loved every bit of it.

“It just feels good right now, just coming from what I had, ACL surgery, coming back and giving my teammates a Final Four — I mean a championship,” Rush said.

Florida made big headlines the year before when its core – Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green – made a group decision to try and make history as repeat champs. When they pulled it off, it cemented that Gators group as one of the NCAA’s great teams of the modern era.

“We’re a team. We always stick together. It’s what we came back to do. We won back-to-back,” Brewer said.

Maybe the hardest part of returning to school is dealing with expectations.

Carolina entered this season ranked No. 1. It dominated early on, raising the possibility of going undefeated. That kind of pressure isn’t easy to handle.

“A lot of outside people were saying we have to win it all or it’s going to be a failure,” Hansbrough said Monday. “Well, you know what? It’s not a failure. We came back to win a championship. We did and we got the job done.”

And just think, all it took was passing on the NBA for a year.

Still waiting on Collison, Thabeet

Mike Miller — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 19:08:00 GMT

What’s the deal with the other draft? You know, the one where college basketball prospects have to inform the NBA of their intentions by Sunday?

Click here to see who’s in. The last few days were especially busy.

Tyler Hansbrough’s headed back to North Carolina. Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington will put their names in the draft, but neither will sign with an agent. (An early guess? They’ll both be back, but it’s a coin flip with Lawson.)

Kansas’ Mario Chalmers, Texas guards D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams, Miss State’s Jamont Gordon and Memphis’ remaining two underclassmen starters, Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier all put their names into the draft earlier this week. (Abrams, Anderson and Dozier are all going back, but the other three could stay in.)

Florida’s Nick Calathes is returning to Florida. Same with Tennessee’s Tyler Smith.

That leaves two notable prospects who still haven’t announced their NBA draft plans: UConn center Hasheem Thabeet and UCLA point guard Darren Collison.

At this point, it seems likely that both will be staying.

Thabeet told the Hartford Courant on Wednesday that he hoped to reach a decision soon. (Read: This weekend.) The 7-3 center, still a raw prospect who doesn’t have many offensive skills, is the kind of player teams will love – but don’t know what to expect.

Collison – who was reportedly declaring for the draft weeks ago – has also been mum while other teammates have put in their names. In another year without a glut of point guards (Augustin, Lawson, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless and even O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon, though both of them are really shooting guards), Collison could be a lottery pick. Now, he’s likely bound for the late teens or even the 20s.

If both return to school, they’d be on the shortlist for the various player of the year awards and could easily be lottery picks in 2009. Wouldn’t that be the smart play?

NBA stardom for Love or Arthur?

Mike Miller — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 21:14:00 GMT

So Kevin Love’s in the NBA draft. So are Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur. So is Russell Westbrook. All of them except for Rush are likely lottery picks.

Just how will they be as pros? I wouldn’t project any of ‘em as future All-Pros, but there’ll be a few All-Star games involved.

Arthur averaged 12.8 ppg as a sophomore at Kansas this season. At 6-9, 215 pounds, he can play either small forward or power forward, though his game is more suited for the low post thanks. He’ll thrive in a one-on-one setting thanks to his mid-range jumper and turnaround moves. I’m sure some draft stories will say he’s too small to play against other power forwards or not quick enough to play against small forwards, but that’s hogwash. Arthur can dominate when he wants to.

I wish he’d go back to Kansas for another season, but that’s a Jayhawk fan talking. The NBA comparison is Antonio McDyess, but without the insane jumping ability McDyess had coming out of ‘Bama. Arthur’s athletic, but McDyess was a pogo stick. On the other hand, some think Arthur could stink it up like Josh Powell.

Simply put, Arthur has NBA moves. He’d be ideal for the Kings, who need a power forward like the Ravens need a QB.

Rush’s future is a little more cloudy. He’s the classic do-it-all player who doesn’t do any one thing exceedingly well. At 6-6, he’ll play shooting guard or small forward and can guard opponents at either position. Rush can stroke the 3, drive to the hole and doesn’t force much.

He won’t take over a game – often a criticism of him at Kansas – but he won’t detract from the offense, either. In that regard, it makes sense to compare Rush to Eddie Jones or Reggie Lewis.

I’d compare him to the Mavs’ Josh Howard – a defensive-oriented swingman who’s a nice compliment to an offensive team. He’s not as long as Howard or Tayshaun Prince, which is why he’s probably not a lottery pick (neither were Prince or Howard, but that’s my point: both of ‘em should’ve gone higher).

UCLA’s Westbrook is interesting. The Pac-10’s defensive player of the year is a 6-3 shooting guard (he’s listed at 6-4) with an unreliable outside shot. Yet … he’s touted as a lottery pick in a guard-heavy draft.

This is what happens when you can jump out of the gym.

Normally, Westbrook wouldn’t be an attractive prospect. He’s the classic tweener without much of a handle. But he’s incredibly explosive. Ask Jamal Boykin. Plus, he does play defense. Projecting him as Monta Ellis is pretty close.

Finally, there’s Love.

He says his time at UCLA “has truly been special” and the time’s right to go pro. Maybe. Few would disagree that Love would dominate the college game next season (since he came close to doing so this year) and won’t be dominant in the NBA. That seems like a pretty good reason to stick around, but it’s Love’s call.

There are two schools of thought on Love’s potential: His fundamentals and basketball I.Q. will make him a good-to-great player, a la Wes Unseld (the go-to comparison for earth-bound centers who can pass).

OR … his lack of quickness and underwhelming height for a center (6-9) will doom him to being a big guy who fights for rebounds and minutes, a la Sean May.

True, Love enters the NBA knowing his strengths and weaknesses, which gives him an advantage over other players trying to develop post skills (see: DeAndre Jordan). But does that understanding give him enough of an edge to compensate for that lack of quickness or jumping ability? After all, the NBA’s filled with guys like Joey Dorsey.

More likely, Love turns into another version of Carlos Boozer. Boozer’s been a force down low every since his rookie season in Cleveland. He’s the same size as Love, also has great footwork and is a great rebounder.

If Love’s lucky, he’ll land on a team that values exactly what he is: A team-first, capable big man in a league where centers continue to vanish.