Beyond the Arc : 2008-09 season previews

Bold predictions for 2008-09 season

Mike Miller — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 01:31:00 GMT

Officially, the college hoops season began Monday. True, it was an underwhelming two games – including a Duke rout, stunner – but the season is finally here.

It also means most of the season preview stories have been written. How much build-up does one need? If you’re late to party, three general previews can be found here, here and here.

With that, here’s our final preview: bold predictions for 2008-09.

The breakout team: Arizona State.
The Sun Devils are ranked 15^th in both the AP and coaches’ preseason polls, but don’t be surprised to see them creep into the top 10. They’ll also give UCLA a run for the Pac-10 title.

More importantly, expect the Sun Devils’ five-year NCAA tournament drought to end. That’s a sure-thing. Herb Sendek’s built ASU into a nasty team to play because of its deliberate, efficient offense and underrated defense.

They feature the Pac-10’s best player in James Harden and are carrying a chip on their shoulder from missing last season’s Big Dance despite a 9-9 conference record (better than in-state rival Arizona). ASU is headed for a 25-win season and will be flirting with the Elite Eight.

Team landing with a thud: Kansas State.
The Wildcats’ 21-win season was a direct result of two players: Michael Beasley and Bill Walker. They accounted for more than half of K-State’s points and their shot attempts.

That’s tough for any team to replace.

K-State may hover around .500, but it won’t have any of the flair or results from last season. And without some hype or some postseason hope, there isn’t much to cheer for in Manhattan this winter.

One Final Four drought will end.
There are six teams ranked in the AP top 25 that are poised for big seasons – and one could have a big finish. These six are desperate for a Final Four appearance. One will break through.

Pittsburgh hasn’t been since ’41. The Panthers have the talent in Sam Young and DeJuan Blair to get it done after 19 trips without.

Purdue has been twice, but not since 1980. That’s 19 NCAA appearances without a spot in the final weekend. The Boilermakers will be a trendy darkhorse pick.

Tennessee’s never been to the Final Four in 16 appearances. Bruce Pearl’s talented teams will end that streak at some point.

Wake Forest has been once (in ’62), but has gone 16 tournaments without. Few teams are as balanced as this year’s Demon Deacons.

Notre Dame’s also been to the Final Four once (in ’78), but hasn’t been back in 14 appearances. Luke Harangody inside and Kyle McAlarney outside could change that.

Gonzaga is another darkhorse pick. Then again the Zags, who’ve never been to a Final Four in 11 trips to the Big Dance, always seem like Final Four material.

Scoring leaders for some of the bigger conferences:

Atlantic 10: Dionte Christmas, Temple.
ACC: Tyrese Rice, Boston College.
Big East: Sam Young, Pitt.
Big Ten: Manny Harris, Michigan.
Big 12: Sherron Collins, Kansas.
Conference USA: Robert Vaden, UAB.
Mountain West: Wink Adams, UNLV.
Missouri Valley: Osiris Eldridge, Illinois State.
Pac-10: Chase Budinger, Arizona.
Southeastern Conference: Devan Downey, South Conference.

Coach of the year: Ben Howland, UCLA.
The Bruins have been to three straight Final Fours, replacing a key player (or more) each time. If UCLA reaches a fourth straight Final Four after replacing Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Luc Richard a Moute, someone give Howland his due.

First coach fired: Ed DeChellis. Penn State.

It’s tempting to go with St. John’s coach Norm Roberts, who’s 48-67 in four seasons, including a 20-46 Big East mark. The Red Storm aren’t likely to be any better this season, but Roberts got a five-year contract rollover last spring.

That leaves DeChellis (57-92 in five seasons) as the most likely coach out. The Lions will be hovering just about .500 by the time Big Ten play begins.

National Player of the Year: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina.
Stephen Curry is tempting, but I’ll stick with the tried and true. I doubt Hansbrough will be slowed by his shin injury. He’ll still be the same high-scoring, rebounding machine.

And if Hansbrough isn’t any different from previous seasons, why pick against him here? He’s the best player on the favorite to win it all. Sometimes, you just go with the odds.

National champion: Connecticut.
Sometimes, you buck the odds. North Carolina is a smart pick to win it all. The Heels have everything – great guards, a go-to guy, NBA talent and depth – and a coach in Roy Williams who’s already won a title.

The thing is, UConn also has the goods to win it. The Huskies are just a step behind UNC offensively, but who isn’t? And I expect the Huskies to be vastly improved on defense, which has always been a staple of Jim Calhoun’s national title teams.

But most striking to me is how balanced the Huskies are. The last three champions have been the same way. Kansas and Florida featured rosters with efficient, balanced scoring. When one player struggled, another filled that void. UConn has that same aura.

At least, that’s the way it seems now. Check back in March when seeds are assigned.

Ten freshmen to watch

Mike Miller — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:36:00 GMT

The 2008-09 college basketball season doesn’t feature a Michael Beasley. Or a Greg Oden. Or a Kevin Durant, Kevin Love or O.J. Mayo. It’s full of good, but not great players.

At least, that’s the general opinion by most media outlets. (Nevermind that DraftExpress.com has freshmen as four of the top 10 picks in this year’s draft, not including Brandon Jennings.)

Garry Jones/AP

Louisville freshman Samardo Samuels is one of the country's best incoming freshmen.

Still, even if the player of the year isn’t a freshmen, there are plenty of dynamic newcomers you’ll need to know. Here are 10.

DeMar DeRozan, USC
Another season, another impact Trojan. O.J. Mayo was a complete basketball player, but DeRozan is on another level with his athletic ability. The 6-foot-6 guard has already wowed his teammates.

"When he's on the fastbreak by himself, I'm like, 'Wow, I have never seen anybody with that jumping ability,' " junior Taj Gibson told the L.A. Times. "He's so strong for a freshman."

It’s not surprise that DeRozan is touted as the best NBA prospect among this year’s freshmen. DraftExpress.com has him rated behind Spanish star Ricky Rubio and Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin.

USC may not dethrone UCLA atop the Pac-10 standings, but DeRozan will ensure the Trojans are back in the Big Dance and making a run to the Sweet 16.

Tyreke Evans, Memphis
The Tigers lost three starters from their 38-2 national runner-up squad, including Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts. That’s ideal for an explosive player like Evans, who’s likely to fill that role.

The 6-6 guard is a dynamic scorer and stellar mid-range shooter, which is ideal for Memphis’ Dribble-Drive offense. That’s already crossed Evans’ mind.

"With this offense I can be unstoppable and have an impact,'' Evans told ESPN. "I love the style of the play, the Dribble-Drive [Motion]. I can score off the drive a lot.''

Jrue Holiday, UCLA
Holiday has a simple prediction for the Bruins.

"National championship, national championship," Holiday told the L.A. Times. "We've gone to the Final Four three years in a row, the history here. What else do I have to say? National championship."

The 6-3 guard should UCLA’s best all-around player. He can score, defend, pass and rebound. If Monday’s exhibition line was any indication -- 12 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and six steals -- Holiday figures to be a star in Tinseltown.

B.J. Mullens, Ohio State
The top prospect from Rivals.com, Mullens is another 7-foot center who should thrive in Columbus, like Greg Oden and Kosta Koufas did. He’s best viewed as a mix of the two -- not as dominant as Oden, but a step up from Koufas.

Mullens isn’t expected to be the Buckeyes’ go-to guy on offense, but should play in his favor. He can focus on controlling the boards, blocking shots and overpowering smaller defenders.

By season’s end, he could too much for most post players to handle.

Samardo Samuels, Louisville
Samuels is another freshman who doesn’t have to carry his team -- but he may anyway. Paired with Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, Louisville is loaded up front.

The 6-8 power forward recently dominated an intersquad scrimmage, scoring 36 points and grabbing 16 rebounds, prompting Cards coach Rick Pitino to label him a “killer forward.”

Makes sense. Samuels (Scout.com’s top freshman prospect) is 250 pounds, has long arms and essentially controls the low block. The Cardinals needed to replace their three departed post players, and he should do just that.

Those five freshmen are considered to be top of the class. The next five should be equally impressive, though.

Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
The ACC’s preseason pick as freshman of the year gives the Demon Deacons another big body on an already monstrous frontline (five players are 6-8 or taller). His mid-range game allows him to play several positions, too.

In short, he’s exactly what Wake needs to return to the Big Dance.

"Everybody knows the hype Farouq came in with," junior L.D. Williams told the Winston-Salem Journal. "And to be honest with you, it's not hype. He can really go out and help us."

Devin Ebanks, West Virginia
West Virginia got a big boost when Ebanks de-committed from Indiana last spring when Kelvin Sampson was fired. The 6-9 forward isn’t a bruiser, but a skilled, smooth wing who should thrive in Bob Huggins’ offense.

He’s a little concerned about playing in the physical Big East, but that’s about the only worry.

“The hardest thing for me is taking a bump right now,” Ebanks noted. “I’ll get by somebody and they will give me a little bump and it will get me off-balance. I will take a shot that’s tougher than I probably would have made if I was a little stronger.”

Huggins, for his part, thinks Ebanks and the rest of his freshmen are ready now.

“If we played today, we could put them in a game,” he told the Times West Virginian. “A year ago I don’t think we put anybody in there at this time. So I think we’re ahead.”

Greg Monroe, Georgetown
Monroe was tabbed the preseason Big East rookie of the year (along with Samuels), and with good reason. He’s not a perfect replacement for Roy Hibbert, but the 6-10 post player should thrive in the Hoyas’ system.

"Style-wise, he couldn't have made a better choice. Georgetown will accentuate what he's good at," Rivals.com recruiting analyst Jerry Meyer told USA Today.

Especially when that system goes up-tempo. Well, a little more up-tempo.

"This team has the aptitude and athletic ability to play at a faster pace than the team in the past," coach John Thompson told the Washington Post. "But at the same time, they understand that end-of-the-game, half-court execution is what wins games."

Chris Singleton, Florida State
The ‘Noles aren’t supposed to be an ACC contender, but that’s doesn’t bode ill for Singleton. The McDonald’s All-American is a nightmare matchup on the wing -- he’s big, fast and can hit the three.

On this list of stellar freshmen, Singleton’s the most likely to record a triple double with some highlight-reel dunks to go with it.

"He plays hard, he defends, he likes to rebound, he blocks shots," Hamilton said after Singleton recorded 11 points, six boards and six steals in an exhibition last week. "He takes pride in kind of doing the dirty work. And that's kind of unusual for a guy that's been as heralded as him coming in."

Willie Warren, Oklahoma
If Blake Griffin is the Sooners’ star, Warren will be the guy who drives them. The 6-4 point guard will improve OU’s offense immensely thanks to his scoring and swagger.

"Going and watching them last year,” Warren told the Daily Oklahoman, "I didn’t feel like the guard play had the swagger, the confidence to go and compete. This year, maybe because we have the talent that can push them in practice, they know if they don’t bring it, they’re going to get shown up in practice. You can just tell how much better the guard play is this year.”

Sound brash? Warren can back it up. He’s already shown his teammates he can score and that makes everyone else’s life easier.

"He can definitely score,” Griffin said. "I think it will keep teams honest. They won’t be able to double down as easy with a guy like Willie Warren out there. Or Tony Crocker, or Austin Johnson.

Hansbrough' shin causes Heels hoops anxiety

Mike Miller — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 00:27:00 GMT

Tyler Hansbrough is out indefinitely with a stress reaction condition in his right shin.

Hear that? That whoosh? It’s the collective breath of North Carolina fans being taken away.

John Bazemore/AP

Tyler Hansbrough is the first national player of the year to return to school since 1991.

What other reaction is possible when your best player, the reigning player of the year and a three-time first-team All-America is out indefinitely with an unfamiliar injury? The good news – if there is any when an injury is reported – is that the Heels are taking precautions.

An MRI Thursday revealed the stress reaction, which can lead to a stress fracture. So Hansbrough’s going to be sitting out of practice until further notice.

UNC coach Roy Williams won’t comment until after he meets with Hansbrough and the school’s medical staff on Friday. But I can’t imagine he says too much about Hansbrough other than he’ll be evaluated often, and sit until the staff thinks he’s ready. Williams isn’t about to jeopardize a chance at a national title by making a foolish move in November.

After all, the Heels were just tabbed as a unanimous No. 1 in the coaches’ poll. Expect the AP poll to do the same on Friday.

Ultimately, this shouldn’t affect the Heels in March. It’s hard to believe Hansbrough’s right shin won’t be the most closely monitored body part on the East Coast this winter and spring.

I’m not worried about UNC and its title aspirations, but I do hope Hansbrough is healthy soon. He’s college hoops’ biggest name and the star of the nation’s No. 1 team.

It’s not Tom Brady going down for the season, but it will hurt the game’s overall visibility. No Hansbrough updates on SportsCenter, fewer splashes in USA Today, etc. It’s like kryptonite for the casual fan.

Guess Stephen Curry will have to carry the superstar load for a while.

How the new 3-point line will affect hoops

Mike Miller — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 01:07:00 GMT

College hoops coaches finally got their wish. The three-point line grew a foot.

Considering how unpopular the distance (19-feet-9) was when the NCAA began using the 3 in 1986, it’s surprising it took 22 years to extend the shot to 20-9. Coaches said 19-9 was a chip shot that turned the sport into a circus, i.e., took the game away from dominant big men.

“The line was so short,” Louisville coach Rick Pitino told Athlon Sports. “I’m 55 (years old) and I could go out there and shoot 45 percent if nobody played defense on me. It really was too short. Inferior shooters ended up taking it. And that’s not good.”

The new line will supposedly open up offenses. Defenses will have to stretch to guard the perimeter, allowing those big men room to work in the lane.

At least, that’s the conventional thinking.

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Davidson's Stephen Curry won't be fazed by the longer 3-point line.

Most shooters won’t be fazed by the extra foot. And if they connect (likely), it’ll surely open up offenses. Some coaches, like Memphis’ John Calipari, aren’t the least bit concerned. The Tigers made about 35 percent of their 3s last season, and Coach Cal can’t see them being any worse this year.

This shot selection chart from Ken Pomeroy (compiled from more than 4,000 games over the past 5 years or about 340,000 shots), shows as much.

Players make about 37 percent of their attempts from 20 feet. At 21 feet, it’s about the same. Also true from 22 feet. Percentages don’t drop significantly until they start heaving it from 25 feet (about 34.5 percent).

In theory, teams shouldn’t be overly affected by the extra foot, and defenses will have to work harder to guard the three.

Still, it may not open up the game because there will likely be fewer overall attempts.

Coaches will reign in some of their more questionable shooters. Those 6-10 power forwards? Probably not going to get the green light, which will mean fewer 3s overall. (Officials expect 3s to encompass about 30 percent of the game’s attempts.)

And if there are fewer attempts, that means more guys drifting toward the basket, which makes it easier on defenses. If that doesn’t work, expect coaches to use more zone defense.

Any changes to the game will be subtle. Teams will adjust and still play to their strengths, whether it’s hoisting 3s or scoring in the paint. (Nobody uses the mid-range game anymore.)

You can read an excellent analysis on those subtle changes here. SI.com’s Luke Winn detailed four areas that he thought would be affected and come to these conclusions: Mid-majors will be hit the hardest; UNC and UConn – two of this season’s biggest contenders – won’t have any issues; defenses that force mid-range jumpers will thrive; and marginal shooters will be ignored.

It’s good stuff. Keep the first two in mind when filling out your bracket.

The mid-major aspect doesn’t apply to every mid-major (not everyone relies on the 3), but does affect three of 2007-08’s most impressive teams, Butler, Drake and Davidson. All three relied on 3s for more than a third of their offense. If any of those three struggle with the 20-9 line, this season may not be as kind.

As to UNC and UConn not having many issues, that’s because neither relied on 3s as much as the rest of the 2008 field. The same was true for other contenders like Michigan State and UCLA. It’s reasonable to expect all four won’t miss a beat this season with the longer line.

But wait, there’s more!

Rush the Court tried to determine which teams had the fewest “pure shooters” by separating shooting percentages at home and on the road. If a team had a large disparity between the two, they will likely struggle this season at 20-9 because they benefited from a shorter line at home.

Among the most vulnerable big names? Vandy, Temple, BYU, Georgetown, Florida, Pitt and defending champion Kansas. The Owls were the worst, shooting 10 percentage points worse on the road.

Teams unfazed on the road include Oregon, Arizona, Duke, Miami (Fla.), Baylor, Gonzaga and Michigan State. The Ducks and Devils shot better than 38 percent on the road.

(RTC did have six teams who were better on the road than at home, but chalked them up as abnormalities.)

Finally, who are the players unlikely to be affected? ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla compiled a list of his top 10 shooters in the game. (Jay Bilas compiled a list of the best all-time college shooter, with Georgia Tech’s Dennis Scott atop the list. I’d go with Ray Allen.)

Most of ‘em are who you’d expect – Davidson’s Stephen Curry and Notre Dame’s Kyle McAlarney are probably the best pure shooters. Others like UAB’s Robert Vaden and Miami’s Jack McClinton are scorers who can also hit from anywhere on the court. And some, like American’s Garrison Carr and Cornell’s Ryan Wittman, are little-known players who could shoot their way into some highlights this season.

A couple of others to consider: Texas Tech’s Alan Voskuil (hit 50 percent of his 134 attempts last season), West Virginia’s Alex Ruoff (Bob Huggins always has one go-to guy who emerges as a star) and BYU’s Jonathan Tavernari (only made 37.6 of his attempts, but he has unlimited range.)

And it always helps to have that guy who can knock down a 3 when needed. Ask Kansas.

Kansas' rebuilding task is a familiar one

Mike Miller — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 16:59:00 GMT

Good news for nervous Kansas fans this season: Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the defending champion has missed the Big Dance just three times.

Bad news for Kansas fans: One of those times was last season.

The Jayhawks must replace about 80 percent of their scoring from their championship roster, including all five starters. The pressure to win remains the same, but it’ll fall on the shoulders of junior guard Sherron Collins, sophomore center Cole Aldrich and seven newcomers to this year’s squad.

It’s a tall order, to be sure, but not an unfamiliar one to other defending champs.

Louisville’s 1986-87 team lost three starters and missed the NCAAs. UCLA’s 1995-96 squad lost two starters, but went 23-8 and won the Pac-10 title. Kentucky was so loaded in 1996-97, it lost three starters, but reached the NCAA title game, finishing 35-5.

But for Kansas comparisons, there are three teams that faced similar situations to this year’s Jayhawks squad: Maryland (’02-’03), North Carolina (’05-’06) and Florida (’07-’08). All three of those teams lost at least 70 percent of their scoring and rebounding from their title teams, but only Florida missed the NCAA tournament the following season.

How did those teams do it?

The Terps lost national player of the year Juan Dixon and its entire frontline of Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox and Byron Mouton from its 32-4 title team. They retained two important pieces in point guard Steve Blake and swingman Drew Nicholas.

The next season, Maryland finished 21-10 overall (11-5 in ACC play), nabbed a No. 6 seed in the NCAAs where it lost to Michigan State in the Sweet 16.

Nicholas emerged as a significant scoring threat, averaging 17.8 ppg. (His 1.33 PPS was slightly lower than Dixon’s 1.37 the year before.)

Blake upped his scoring to 11.6 ppg, did it just as effectively as Nicholas (1.31 PPS) and his assists barely dipped (7.1).

An important aspect was freshman Nik Caner-Medley. He took some lumps, but his 5.9 ppg – at 1.33 PPS – gave the Terps added punch when needed.

Also, forwards Ryan Randle (12.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.17 PPS) and Tahj Holden (8.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.31 PPS) did just enough to make up for the loss of Baxter and Wilcox up front. Neither was as explosive, but were capable.

Maryland also used a deep bench extensively. Jamar Smith, Calvin McCall, John Gilchrist and Travis Garrison also played more than 12 minutes a game.

Bottom line: Maryland used Nicholas as a go-to guy, had a great point guard in Blake and wasn’t afraid to go to the bench.

North Carolina in 2005-06 had it much worse.

The Heels lost their top seven scorers, including four NBA lottery picks. They accounted for 86 percent of UNC’s scoring and 80 percent of the rebounds.

But UNC finished the season 23-8 (12-4) in ACC and nabbed a No. 3 seed in the Big Dance, where it lost to George Mason in the second round.

Tyler Hansbrough, then a freshman, carried much of the load. He averaged 18.9 ppg and was incredibly efficient, going for 1.68 PPS (still his highest PPS for a season) and grabbing every rebound in sight.

Title-team holdovers Reyshawn Terry (14.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and David Noel (12.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg) both increased their scoring and did it efficiently, while point guards Wes Miller and freshman Bobby Frasor ensured Carolina never slowed down. Also important, freshmen Danny Green (7.5 ppg) and Marcus Ginyard (6.3 ppg).

After all, how many teams could lose their top seven scorers and still feature the nation’s 10th most efficient offense?

Bottom line: Don’t shy away from relying on your top players, no matter how old they are, but having an experienced upper classman is key.

The transition isn’t always smooth, though. Especially if you falter down the stretch.

After back-to-back titles, Florida lost its top six players for the 2007-08 season (about 85 percent of their scoring and 80 percent of their rebounds), and started 15-2, but ultimately missed the NCAAs. The Gators ended 24-12 (8-8 in SEC).

The Gators’ offense wasn’t the issue, either. Behind forward Marreese Speights (14.5 ppg, 1.51 PPS) and guard Walter Hodge (10.4 ppg, 1.26 PPS), they were among the nation’s most efficient scoring teams last season.

Freshman Nick Calathes was their best all-around player, leading the team in scoring (15.3) and assists (6.1), but could be sloppy with the ball.

Florida’s other young players were solid (sophomore Dan Werner went for 9.1 ppg and 6.4 rpg, while freshmen Jai Lucas and Chandler Parson combined for 16 ppg), but something was missing late in the season when Florida closed the regular-season with just 3 wins in its last 10 games, then lost in the SEC tournament opener.

Bottom line: Those young guys have to learn to play defense. The Gators were 77^th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 246^th in turnover percentage. (Frankly, an offense like Florida's should've been able to overcome a mediocre defense.)

That leaves Kansas to put the ball in Collins’ hands (coach Bill Self wants him to shoot about 18 times a game), use its depth (that means all 9 guys) and ensure its newcomers can handle play defense. With only two players 6-9 or taller, that could be an issue in the post.

Collins isn't an efficient scorer (1.25 PPS last season, which, at 18 attempts per outing in '08-'09, translates into 22.5 ppg this season), with an offense rating hovering around 1.07 last year. That was the worst among Kansas' nine players of note, except Aldrich. That will have to change.

Aldrich, who rebounded more efficiently than any other Kansas play last season, but didn't have enough rebounds to have a significant statistical impact, could be a double-double man. He'll see a lot of double teams, though, which means his passing out of the post to Kansas' perimeter players will be key.

And there's the rub.

Among Kansas' seven newcomers, only Travis Releford is a real three-point threat. Self's offense doesn't require a lot of long-distance shooting, but as anyone who saw Mario Chalmers' shot in the title game knows, hitting the three is key. JUCO transfer Mario Little could hit a few, but that's about it.

Right now, Kansas seems more like Maryland 2003 than UNC 2006 or Florida 2008. Collins can be the Nicholas-type scoring threat, especially if transfer Tyrone Appleton and freshman Tyshawn Taylor can handle point-guard duties. Beyond that, reliable bench production from the five freshmen and two JUCO transfers seems manageable.

With games against non-conference Washington, Arizona, Tennessee and Michigan State, the Jayhawks will see plenty of talented teams before Big 12 play begins. If Kansas isn’t ready for the conference grid by then, it could be on the bubble in March.

Who are this year's standout players?

Mike Miller — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:25:00 GMT

There are really only two sure things when it comes to preseason All-Americans this season.

Tyler Hansbrough and Stephen Curry. One’s a three-time All-American who’s trying to lead North Carolina to back-to-back Final Fours and its fifth NCAA title. Curry is the Davidson sharpshooter who led the Wildcats to within a whisker of the 2008 Final Four.

Everything else is up for grabs. And there are plenty of great players to choose.

Three names – Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin, Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody and UCLA’s Darren Collison – will circulate often. Others like Arizona State’s James Harden or Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson should garner attention.

But frankly, most of the preseason teams are a mix of established stars and players pundits think will emerge as stars in 2008-09.

For example, take our list.

UConn’s A.J. Price may be a surprise pick as a first-teamer along with Curry, Harden, Harangody and Hansbrough, but I love the senior’s all-around game. He can score, pass, defend and has great size for a lead guard. He should be recovered from a torn ACL.

Still, it’s a great year for point guards, so Price would have to be even better than last season to live up to All-America billing.

With that in mind, just who didn’t make NBCSports.com’s squad and why? Good question

GUARDS

A.J. Abrams, Texas. Losing D.J. Augustin as a backcourt mate hurts, but Abrams can handle it. The Big 12’s leading returning scorer is also one of the country’s hottest outside shooters.

Dionte Christmas, Temple. Great leader who’s consistency (20.0 and 19.7 ppg in the last two seasons) sets the tone for an improving Owls squad.

Nick Calathes, Florida. Hustling, heady sophomore was the SEC co-freshman of the year who shattered the school record for assists.

Devan Downey, South Carolina. A great talent on a bad team, Downey does it all for the Gamecocks. He scores (18.4 ppg), dishes (5.4 apg) and had an SEC record 103 steals last season.

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse. The sophomore point guard is the Big East’s most talented point guard and a handful to stop off the dribble. He’s tireless (39.2 minutes in conference play), and figures to lead the Orange to their first NCAA tourney since 2006.

Manny Harris, Michigan. The dynamic swingman didn’t have much help as a freshman, but still managed to finish among the Big Ten’s leading scorers. The Wolverines are still a borderline NCAA tourney team, but Harris is a big-time player.

Ty Lawson, North Carolina. Few players are faster from rim to rim, which is ideal for the Heel’s secondary break. The junior led the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio and doesn’t have to carry UNC’s scoring load.

Kalin Lucas, Michigan State. Another speedy guard, Lucas emerged as the Spartans’ top playmaker last season as a freshman. He’ll blow by most Big Ten opponents.

Jack McClinton, Miami. The ‘Canes senior can fill it up (17.7 ppg), especially from three-point range. He was second in the ACC in 3-point percentage.

Jeremy Pargo, Gonazga. Two WCC players are among the nation’s best point guards? Fer sure. The Bulldogs’ senior was last year’s conference player of the year and remains a potent combination of scoring (12.1 ppg), assists (6.0) and savvy.

Tyrese Rice, Boston College. The Eagles leaned on Rice for nearly 30 percent of their scoring last season. The senior guard is capable of even more this year.

Robert Vaden, UAB. The senior loves his 3s. He made a C-USA record 142 three-pointers last season and made 40 percent of them.

FORWARDS

Jon Brockman, Washington. The Huskies senior averaged 17.8 pgg and 11.6 rpg last season – though those numbers don’t fully encapsulate how good he was on a bad team. With improved free-throw shooting, he could average 23 ppg.

Chase Budinger, Arizona. Budinger’s production isn’t the issue (17.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg). If he elevates the Wildcats in the Pac-10 race, then he’ll be even better.

Dejaun Blair, Pittsburgh. Co-Big East newcomer of the year is a force down low, despite standing just 6-7. Expect a significant upgrade from his 11.6 ppg and 9.1 rpg.

Robbie Hummel, Purdue. Sophomore swingman is an efficient scorer (126.7 ORtg) who could see his scoring average (11.4 ppg) rocket.

Kyle Singler, Duke. The Devils’ best all-around player is a potent mix of size (6-8) and perimeter scoring. He was worn down by the end of his freshman season – don’t expect that again.

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut. The nation’s best shot blocker (sorry Varnardo) is also one of its most improved players over the last two seasons. As long as Thabeet is more aggressive on offense, the Huskies will shine.

Jarvis Varnado, Miss State. Shot-blocking machine (NCAA-best 4.62 a game) tied Shaquille O’Neal single-season SEC mark as a sophomore. If you’re shooting, make sure you know where the 6-9 jumping jack is.

Terrence Williams, Louisville. Dynamic senior has improved his scoring, passing and rebounding each season.

Sam Young, Pittsburgh. Panthers senior could be the Big East’s player of the year if his outside shooting improves. He’s already really, good, though. (18.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg).

FRESHMEN

DeMar DeRozan, USC. No O.J. Mayo? Enter the explosive DeRozan, who’s probably the most NBA-ready talent in the game.

Tyreke Evans, Memphis. With Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts gone, Evans could emerge as the Tigers’ go-to guy. An explosive 6-6 guard, he’ll could put up big numbers against C-USA teams.

Jrue Holiday, UCLA. How long until Holliday runs the Bruins’ offense? Only when Darren Collison is injured or out of the game. But UCLA will still ensure the ball is in Holliday’s hands as often as possible.

B.J. Mullens, Ohio State. Another 7-foot center in Columbus? What else is new? He’s not as dominant as Greg Oden, or as skilled as Kosta Koufos, but he’ll likely be among the Big Ten’s best big men.

Samardo Samuels, Louisville. Rick Pitino’s most prized recruit while at Louisville, Samuels (6-8, 240) will replace most of the post-production lost with David Padgett, Juan Palacios and Derrick Caracter gone.

There you have it. Between our All-America team and this list, that’s enough players to start a conference. Damn good one, too.

But who are your players to watch this season?